College Basketball Bets
We are just shy of 100 teams in action, as we have 49 games on the board for Thursday night’s college basketball slate. Per Bart Torvik’s “Torvik Thrill Quotient” metric, the best game of the night is South Florida vs. UAB, so this is not a night where you will find many major-conference teams in action. Thursdays are reserved for the mid and low-majors, as we have the American, Big Ten (Wisconsin vs. Penn State), Big West, MAAC, Sun Belt, Big Sky, CAA, Summit League, America East, A-Sun, Conference USA, and Ohio Valley in action.
One thing to follow over the next few days is the weather. We don’t think about weather for indoor sports, but there are going to be a ton of travel headaches, postponements, and games that change start times. We’ve even seen a handful of those today. Games that need to be made up will make for some interesting schedule quirks down the line and travel troubles for teams could lead to bad spots in their upcoming games if they get stuck somewhere. Just something to keep in mind.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Albany Great Danes (-3.5, 131.5) at Maine Black Bears
6 p.m. ET
While a black bear would be a heavy favorite in a fight against a great dane, the Great Danes are favored over the Black Bears in college basketball. Albany and Maine get together for some America East action here with a growing line, as the visitors enter with a three-game winning streak on the heels of three outstanding defensive performances.
Maine plays at a very slow tempo and doesn’t shoot the basketball well. It is hard for them to have any semblance of offensive efficiency and Albany has held their last three opponents to .809, .839, and .996 points per possession, with the last game against a Vermont team that is usually the class of the conference. The only game of four in AEC play where the Great Danes struggled on defense was against UMass Lowell, who had 67 shots from the floor in a 67-possession game because they simply dominated on the offensive glass.
Maine won’t do that. The one thing to hang your hat on with the Black Bears is that they are one of the nation’s best defensive teams on the perimeter, holding opponents to 26.7% from 3. Unfortunately, they shoot the ball about as poorly as their opponents and also turn the ball over on 20% of their possessions. So, while they aren’t getting burned by the 3, they also aren’t really taking advantage of it.
Furthermore, Maine is a poor rebounding team on the defensive glass, an area where Albany should be able to create some second-chance opportunities. Look for the Great Danes to have the higher shot volume, more possessions, and capitalize, as they’re shooting 54.2% on 2s in conference play thus far.
Pick: Albany -3.5
UNC Wilmington Seahawks at William & Mary Tribe (-1.5, 157.5)
7 p.m. ET
It is extremely rare that you get an enormous line movement this deep into a season without an injury, but we’ve got one here on the total of UNC Wilmington vs. William & Mary. For some context, UNCW has played the 359th-ranked slate of opposing offenses per KenPom. Overall, Torvik has them with the 360th-ranked schedule and KP has the 358th-ranked slate. So, the Seahawks have played a slate of nobodies this season.
This is a good William & Mary offense. They share the basketball exceptionally well, sitting seventh in the nation in Assist Rate. They also play at the fifth-fastest adjusted tempo in the nation per Torvik. They are 80th in eFG% offense and have a 21% TO% on defense that helps them score in transition and also keep pushing the pace.
The Seahawks do none of those things. They are 208th in Assist Rate, 322nd in adjusted tempo, 198th in eFG% offense, and 272nd in TO% on defense. They are one of the nation’s best defensive teams against the 3-pointer, but, like I said above, they haven’t played offenses that can shoot the basketball.
I have a ton of respect for Takayo Siddle and what he accomplishes on an annual basis with the Seahawks. But, this game feels like a huge wake-up call. As it is, in the last three conference games against Northeastern, Stony Brook, and Campbell, we’re seeing the defense start to crack. Those three teams scored 1.072, 1.084, and 1.109 points per possession and shot 59.8% on 2s.
Pick: William & Mary -1.5
