College Basketball Bets
A total of 56 games welcomes bettors to the Thursday college basketball schedule. It is a day filled with small-conference action and one-bid leagues, as we have a few stragglers from the major conferences, but very few of them. Even the best games of the night come from the mid-majors and there are some very good games on that list. It’s actually a good night of basketball, despite what some national mouthpieces will tell you.
Our first tip-off is 5 p.m. ET and our last tip-off is 11 p.m. ET, so hoops heads will find a lot to follow tonight, even if it means firing up that ESPN+ subscription to find most of them. Along with my preview of Hawaii vs. UC Irvine here, I’ve scanned the rest of the card for my favorite plays.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Liberty Flames (-1.5, 135.5) at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
7 p.m. ET
A Conference USA clash here between Liberty and Middle Tennessee features two of the highest-ranked teams in the conference. The difference is that Liberty is off to a 9-0 start in league play, while Middle Tennessee is just 5-3 to this point. The Blue Raiders are largely living on the fact that they played a top-10 non-conference schedule per KenPom, as they did go up against Michigan and Houston, along with some other good mid-majors like Belmont, Murray State, George Washington, and McNeese State, but they did also play three lower-division opponents and KenPom’s SOS rankings don’t account for those games.
Regardless, any way you slice it, the Blue Raiders have played the tougher schedule, but this is a step up in class in CUSA play for both of them, as Liberty has played the 13th-ranked conference SOS per Torvik and Middle Tennessee has played the 12th.
This is a pretty simple handicap for me, though. Middle Tennessee is 302nd in the nation in TO% on defense. Liberty is 12th in 2P% and seventh in 3P%, shooting 59.6% and 39.9%, respectively. The defensive metrics are the better ones for MTSU, but they’re not going to get any turnovers in this game in all likelihood and Ritchie McKay always has a good shooting team and this one is no exception.
In conference play, Liberty is shooting 59.6% on 2s and 40.2% on 3s, so even a little better than their season averages. Also, they are fourth in eFG% defense, so it’s not like they’re a dumpster fire in that department. MTSU is the No. 1 team by eFG% defense and adjusted defensive efficiency, even with their low TO%, but I think that’s a byproduct of the schedule. And they’re still only 5-3 SU in conference play and even lost to Louisiana Tech in a game where the Bulldogs were 1-of-12 from 3.
Even with Liberty’s elite offensive numbers, CUSA is 21st in the nation by conference in eFG% offense. I’m not surprised that MTSU’s conference defensive numbers look the way that they do, but Liberty’s going to challenge them a lot. Also, the Blue Raiders have given up 1.095 points per possession or more in their six games against Torvik Top 100 teams. Liberty ranks 96th for Torvik right now.
Pick: Liberty -1.5
Western Carolina Catamounts at East Tennessee State Buccaneers (-10.5, 147.5)
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a SoCon rematch here between Western Carolina and East Tennessee State. It’s been rough lately for these two schools because of all the winter storm impacts, as they had some games and game times moved around. We’ll see how much normalcy they can find with more snow expected this weekend.
Anyway, this is a rematch of a game that was played on Jan. 14 and Western Carolina won 72-68 at home in upset fashion. In analyzing that box score, there are no significant outliers for the Catamounts, who are third in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference play. Maybe they shot slightly better than normal, picking up 1.146 points per possession despite 14 turnovers in a game played to 63 possessions.
ETSU only turned the ball over five times in that game and was also +11 in free throw attempts and +8 in free throw makes, but still lost the game outright. There were a lot of factors in their favor, but still came up short, and that’s why I’ll take the Catamounts +10.5 tonight. Western Carolina has been playing well offensively throughout. Nobody plays great defense in the SoCon, as ETSU is No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency, TO%, and 2P%, and yet they’ve still allowed over a point per possession in half of their SoCon games.
With a recent data point to go off of, I think the Catamounts can cover here, especially if we get another game played to just 63 possessions.
Pick: Western Carolina +10.5
Georgia State Panthers (-2.5, 129.5) at Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
8 p.m. ET
To the Sun Belt we go where the Ragin’ Cajuns host the Panthers. Georgia State is actually playing really well right now, as they’ve ripped off four straight wins and have gotten off to a 6-3 start in SBC action. The Panthers are actually the No. 1 team in the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency and are second in eFG% defense. They’ve also found their offensive stride a little bit lately, including a 37% mark from 3 in conference games.
This is a team shooting over 80% at the free throw line in conference action, nearly 12% better than Louisiana, which matters in a game where we’ve seen the total get bet down a few points. Louisiana is coached by former Houston assistant Quannas White and their games are played at a remarkably slow pace. Like you could go get a beer, use the restroom, get back to your seat, and maybe miss three or four possessions.
Playing slowly can benefit bad teams, but this is a really bad team, sitting 12th in adjusted offensive efficiency in the 14-team conference and 11th in adjusted defensive efficiency, even with the highest TO% in the conference at 19.2%. Opponents are shooting 43.3% from 3 against the Ragin’ Cajuns.
With limited possessions, an inefficient team on both ends of the floor can lower the variance, but also fails to create enough high-percentage opportunities. Georgia State’s full-season offensive numbers are terrible, but they’ve gotten much better in conference play and I don’t think that the market has fully adjusted to them yet.
Pick: Georgia State -2.5
