College Basketball Bets
Happy college hoops Thursday, as we have 57 games on the slate to think about. Just like last night, we have a huge spread of conferences, with the Big Ten, West Coast, CAA, C-USA, Big Sky, A-Sun, Big West, Southland, Ohio Valley, Sun Belt, NEC, America East, WAC, and Summit all in action. Once again, something for everyone, ranging from some big-conference matchups to the one-bid leagues.
Tip-offs actually begin at 12:30 p.m. ET with Hofstra vs. Towson and run until 11:30 p.m. ET with Santa Clara vs. Gonzaga. Not a bad slate of games, as we also look ahead to tonight’s CFP semifinal between Miami and Ole Miss. It’s a good night of sports and hopefully a good night of college basketball bets.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Elon Phoenix (-5.5, 160.5) at North Carolina A&T Aggies
7 p.m. ET
We start in the CAA with this Elon vs. NC A&T matchup in Greensboro. Elon is looking for a bounce back effort off a loss to Charleston and they’ve had a lot of time to think about it, as that game was on New Year’s Eve. With a NC A&T team that runs at a top-70 tempo per Torvik, the well-rested Phoenix should be willing to increase their pace a little bit tonight.
I’m good with that because Elon is the type of team that has to outscore opponents to win. The Phoenix are 55th in adjusted offensive efficiency and 48th in eFG% offense. They are also 314th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 297th in eFG%. It’s all about scoring for them and they are the far superior team in this game on that front.
NC A&T is 273rd in adjusted offensive efficiency and 259th in eFG% offense. They’re also 326th in adjusted defensive efficiency, as they have a 15% TO% on defense and foul a ton. Opponents are shooting 37.1% from 3 against the Aggies, who have played the 353rd-ranked schedule per Torvik and they played the 357th-ranked non-conference schedule. Playing, and losing, to UNC Wilmington, Northeastern, and Stony Brook has actually helped their strength of schedule.
Those three teams rank 217th, 86th, and 251st in eFG% offense and scored 1.152, 1.297, and 1.240 points per possession on the Aggies defense. Elon is a better offense than all three of them. The Phoenix don’t turn the ball over and are very good on the offensive glass. I don’t think NC A&T can score enough to keep up, especially with their poor shot selection. They have a Rim & 3 Rate under 70%. Elon’s is nearly 90%, and they’re shooting 62.3% at the rim and 35.2% from 3.
Pick: Elon -5.5 (-118)
New Haven Chargers at Le Moyne Dolphins (-5.5, 137.5)
7 p.m. ET
We head to Syracuse, where, to my knowledge, there are no Dolphins. That didn’t stop Le Moyne College from naming their team the Dolphins. Apparently, the dolphin was chosen because it is “considered to be friendly toward man and represents both love and tenderness…and is noted for its grace and swiftness, while also symbolizing the desire for knowledge”. I’m paraphrasing from the first search result of “why is Le Moyne the dolphins”.
Why is New Haven the “Chargers”? That wasn’t clearly outlined, but their horse mascot is Charlie the Charger.
Anyway, I like Le Moyne laying a number here for a few reasons. The first is that they’re shooting 36.7% from 3 while New Haven is shooting just 27.2% from 3. That’s a staggering difference, especially when both teams have a similar 3P Rate against. The Dolphins do have a much higher Rim & 3 Rate than their opponents here, so that’s another reason why I like them. New Haven plays low-possession games, as they rank 342nd in adjusted tempo, but their shot selection has led to a lot of one-and-done possessions.
This is a Chargers team that ranks 351st in adjusted offensive efficiency and 331st in eFG% offense. Le Moyne has some defensive flaws and they don’t force a lot of turnovers, but New Haven takes bad shots and doesn’t make them. They also don’t get to the free throw line at all and rank 351st in ORB%. This should be a game where Le Moyne’s leaky defense isn’t a problem and they should be able to get the shots that they want on offense.
The Dolphins are a 72.1% team from the line and are playing in their friendly confines, so if they do need to ice this cover at the free throw line, I think that they can.
Pick: Le Moyne -5.5 (-108)
Pepperdine Waves at San Diego Toreros (-4.5, 147.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
Pepperdine heads down the coast from Malibu to San Diego for this Big West battle against the Toreros. The Waves are off to an 0-4 start in conference play, but they have played Gonzaga, Saint Mary’s and Santa Clara already. They also just lost by five to Pacific, but had 1.035 PPP after coming nowhere near that against the other three teams.
San Diego beat Pacific by 12 and then ran into the gauntlet of Gonzaga, San Francisco, and Santa Clara and dropped all three of those games, though they did have 1.167 PPP against Gonzaga. Head coach Steve Lavin got the San Diego athletic department to spend some money this recruiting cycle and has definitely upgraded this roster.
It’s taken some time to come together, but the Toreros should be getting closer. They are 29th in TO% on defense and if they keep giving themselves extra possessions and opportunities to score points, it should pay some dividends. As it is, they’re easily the better offense in this game, ranking 181st in 2P% and 209th in 3P%. Compare that to Pepperdine’s 291st in 2P% and 317th in 3P% and the potential for takeaways by the Toreros defense looms pretty large.
Neither team shines on the glass, so that’s a bit of a worry, but I don’t know that Pepperdine is going to have many fruitful offensive possessions. They’ve turned the ball over 19.7% of the time against D-I opponents, which ranks 300th. So, the Toreros should be able to pressure them into some mistakes and then have the chance to capitalize with their better offensive numbers.
The blowout loss to Santa Clara wasn’t pretty, but perhaps a blessing in disguise, as the Toreros had played four games from 12/28 to 1/4 and were able to lighten the minutes load on guys in that loss to the Broncos. We should get a refreshed squad and a renewed effort here.
Pick: San Diego -4.5 (-110)
