College Basketball Bets
Another busy day in the college basketball world, as three more conference tournaments – Missouri Valley, MAAC, West Coast – get going and we have more regular season action across the other conferences. We don’t have any semifinal or championship games in the conference tournaments yet, but those pressure cookers are coming soon and should be a lot of fun to follow.
In all, we have 46 games on the card for today and 17 of them are conference tournament clashes, with the first game tipping off at 3:30 p.m. ET, leaving us with a lengthy evening of basketball. One trend to follow is the Under in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. It is no secret how well Unders have done and we’ve seen line moves of 8, 7, and 7.5 points down on the totals for the three games in that tourney today. If you want to follow along, bet the Under right as those lines open.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
James Madison Dukes (-1.5, 142.5) vs. Southern Miss Golden Eagles
6 p.m. ET
To the Sun Belt we go, where James Madison plays a back-to-back after beating Louisiana 87-72 last night in second round action from Pensacola. The Dukes lost the first meeting against Southern Miss 73-65 back on Jan. 31, but that game was played without Justin McBride, who is a 41% 3-point shooter averaging a team-high 15.7 PPG and he’s the team’s second-leading rebounder at 5.6 RPG.
Not surprisingly, the Dukes were 4-of-20 from 3 in that matchup without McBride, who had 20 points and eight rebounds last night against the Ragin’ Cajuns. Even on the unfamiliar floor, James Madison was just 3-of-13 from 3, but was 28-of-35 at the rim and had 1.223 points per possession in the conference tourney lid-lifter.
It certainly gets tougher to play games with no rest as the conference tournament goes along, but in this particular spot, I like that the Dukes have played a game, while Southern Miss has not. JMU has more familiarity with the court, has gotten out the conference tournament jitters, and also had a confidence-building win off of a regular season finale loss to Coastal Carolina that pushed them down in the seeding.
Aside from that, JMU was also second in eFG% offense during the regular season in conference play and tops in eFG% defense. This is a Southern Miss team that cannot shoot. They were 13th out of 14 teams with a 31% success rate from 3 and shot 51% on 2s, which was ninth. The Dukes should have an edge on the offensive glass, especially with McBride in the lineup, and were also fifth in 3P% offense and second in 3P% defense.
Frankly, this team underperformed during the regular season and we’ll see if Preston Spradlin’s team can make up for it in the Sunshine State.
Pick: James Madison -1.5
Holy Cross Crusaders at Lehigh Mountain Hawks (-6.5, 141.5)
7 p.m. ET
The top seeds in the Patriot League take the floor at home tonight, including Lehigh in this 2 vs. 10 matchup. Holy Cross upset Lafayette on the road in Easton, PA and then took the 3.5-hour bus ride to Bethlehem, PA for this game with a day off in between.
The teams split the regular season meetings, each winning at home, as Lehigh won 66-58 and Holy Cross won 76-67 exactly a month apart. I like Lehigh in the rubber match here on their home floor. The Mountain Hawks were third in eFG% offense and second in eFG% defense during the regular season in conference play, firing away at 37.5% from 3. Holy Cross was the worst 2P% offense in the conference and even with a low TO% finished eighth out of 10 teams in adjusted offensive efficiency.
Lehigh didn’t rebound well and had a higher TO% than most of their counterparts, but Holy Cross was ninth in TO% on defense and was just about as bad on the glass. So, to me, this game becomes about shot-making and Lehigh is better than Holy Cross, plus they’re at home. Lehigh actually shot 41% from 3 in home conference games. They also shot 81.6% at the free throw line, an important factor given where this line is and given the nature of the game, where a loss means the season is over, so Holy Cross would be trying to extend the clock as much as possible.
Holy Cross had a season-high 1.214 points per possession in that win over Lafayette on Tuesday. What goes up as an outlier must come down and I fully expect that they come back down to Earth.
Pick: Lehigh -6.5
UC Riverside Highlanders at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-11.5, 148.5)
Midnight ET
The Hawaii chase game is active tonight, as the Rainbow Warriors host UC Riverside. The Highlanders are wrapping up their season tonight. They won at home on Saturday over Cal State Northridge with a very impressive effort, but I’d be stunned if we see anything close to that tonight. This is a vacation for the Highlanders, as the bottom three teams don’t qualify for the Big West Tournament and they are one of them, joining Cal State Bakersfield and Long Beach State.
Hawaii is playing for the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament, as they entered the day tied with UC Irvine at 13-5. They’ve got two big favorite roles left, here against the Highlanders and Saturday against Long Beach State, another team likely to treat this trip like a vacation to paradise.
When Hawaii played in Riverside, it was a “hide the wife and children” game, as the Rainbow Warriors won 88-45 on Jan. 1. Maybe the Highlanders partied too hard on New Year’s Eve, but it was a total blowout. We’ve seen a line move on the Over here, which makes sense because UCR has nothing to play for and they played like it in that CSUN game, a game played to 79 possessions with 179 total points.
Hawaii doesn’t mind playing fast. If the tempo of this game is going to be quick, that’s bad for the Highlanders. Hawaii is third in eFG% offense in conference play. Incredibly, they’ve been way better shooting the basketball on the road than at home, where they’ve only shot 27.8% from 3. It’s too late for regression to fully hit, but I can’t believe they’re shooting that poorly at home and this feels like an opportunity for that to regress to the mean a bit.
Overall, I just don’t think UCR will treat this like a business trip, as the season ends tonight and it’ll end in Hawaii.
Pick: Hawaii -11.5
