College Basketball Bets
We’ve got 36 games on the college basketball card for Tuesday, a massive upgrade from the seven games that we had yesterday. Louisville vs. Tennessee is easily the headline game, but we’ve got a smattering of other noteworthy matchups, especially for some teams that might be sitting on the bubble in a few months time.
We did have an 11 a.m. ET game today, but every other game starts at 6 p.m. ET or later, all the way up until 11:30 p.m. ET with one of the better games of the day between UC San Diego and Loyola Marymount on the West Coast. As I mentioned yesterday, don’t forget to check out Tyler Shoemaker’s men’s and women’s college basketball projections, as you can get some serious line value from those.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Dartmouth Big Green (-1.5, 146.5) at Holy Cross Crusaders
6 p.m. ET
We begin in Worcester, Mass, where Dartmouth and Holy Cross do battle in an Ivy League vs. Patriot League matchup. These are two teams with contrasting styles, as Dartmouth wants to run, sitting in the top-50 in adjusted tempo per Torvik and Holy Cross has no interest, coming in 288th in adjusted tempo. The other big difference between the two teams is that David McLaughlin’s team loves to bomb away from 3, as their 50.8% 3P Rate ranks 14th in the nation.
As you know, shot selection is really important to me. Dartmouth only has a 34% shot share on Close Twos and they’re only shooting 52.7% on those attempts, but Holy Cross has allowed opponents to shoot 67.4% at the rim. And Holy Cross only has a 29.1% shot share on Close Twos. They take a ton of jump shots, with over 70% of their attempts as mid-range jumpers or 3s.
Despite the lack of success at the rim, Dartmouth still ranks in the 62nd percentile in eFG% per CBB Analytics and the 76th percentile over their last five games. Holy Cross is in the 53rd percentile for the season and 69th percentile for the last five games. Also, even though Dartmouth takes a lot of 3s, they still get fouled a fair amount, sitting in the 79th percentile in FT Attempt Rate, while Holy Cross is in the 14th percentile.
Dartmouth has thrown away too many possessions with a 20.3% TO%, but Holy Cross is 320th in the nation in TO% on defense, so Dartmouth shouldn’t have that problem as the better offensive team in this one. They’ve also held opponents to 29.8% from 3, as they’ve had some lapses defending the inside, but not the outside.
Holy Cross was without freshman starter Aiden Disu (9.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG) the last two games and he’s had five games scoring in double digits, including 16 points in the season opener against Providence. I couldn’t find anything as to whether or not he’s going to play, but he’d be a big absence if he can’t go, especially being one of the team’s top defensive rebounders.
Pick: Dartmouth -1.5 (-110)
Marist Red Foxes at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (-6.5, 139.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
We’ve seen a noteworthy move up on the total for this game and that should benefit Georgia Tech, the better offensive team in this non-conference tilt. Marist enters having played the 356th-ranked schedule according to Torvik and 360th per KenPom, so they’ve played one of the worst slates of teams in the nation. They’ve faced the 356th-ranked schedule of opposing offenses and 361st of opposing defenses per KenPom.
And yet, this is a Marist team that ranks 309th per Torvik in adjusted offensive efficiency and 315th per KP. They only have a 35.3% shot share on Close Twos against that weak schedule and are only shooting 30.6% from 3. They also have one of the 30 lowest FT rates on offense and one of the 60 highest FT rates on defense.
Marist is a pretty aggressive defensive team and they’ve done well to force turnovers (28th at 21.3%) and defend shots (8th in eFG% defense), but they’re really stepping up in class here. Marist has played one team ranked above 241 per Torvik and that was a 66-62 loss to Xavier in the season opener.
The Yellow Jackets should get Baye Ndongo back after he missed the last game against Monmouth. I’m guessing that’s part of the reason for the move on the total. He’s battling a knee issue, but that game was 10 days ago.
Marist’s best attributes are on defense, but Georgia Tech has comparable defensive numbers against a far superior schedule. I’d expect the Yellow Jackets to fare well on the glass in this one and probably put a depth-shy Marist team into some foul trouble.
Pick: Georgia Tech -6.5 (-112)
Southern Jaguars at Cal Baptist Lancers (-12.5, 154.5)
10 p.m. ET
A late one in Riverside as Cal Baptist hosts Southern. The Baton Rouge-based Jaguars have been travelling a ton during their non-conference slate, as is often the case for these teams that need paychecks. They’ll head back to Texas to face Baylor this weekend, but first they have their second stop of the season in California. The Jags lost by 14 to San Jose State back on Nov. 21.
This morning was absurdly frustrating for me trying to track down injury information. Southern leading scorer Michael Jacobs (21 PPG, 4.3 APG) missed the last game against Texas State after playing only 19 minutes against Texas in the previous game. My guess is that this line is moving on Cal Baptist as a bigger favorite because he isn’t going to play. Even if he does, he’s not 100% if he was bad enough to miss a winnable game against Texas State.
Even with Jacobs’ heroics, this is still a team that is only shooting 45.4% on 2-point shots, as a 38.4% 3P% has really carried them. They only shoot a 3 on about 32% of their shot attempts, so their 3-point prowess isn’t going as far as it could. Furthermore, this is a terrible defensive team that ranks 313th in eFG% defense.
Cal Baptist is a positive regression candidate on offense, as they have a 53.7% shot share on Close Twos that leads the nation, but they are 329th in FG% on those shots. This is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation at both ends of the floor, but they’ve been unable to maximize it on offense by finishing at such a low rate. Southern isn’t a very tall team, so this could be the spot.
Teams have a 61.5% FG% on Close Twos against Southern and a 39.1% success rate from 3. With a Rim & 3 Rate of nearly 84%, this should be a good matchup for Cal Baptist as the line move implies.
Pick: Cal Baptist -12.5 (-105)
