College Basketball Bets
Options were limited on the college basketball card for Monday, but we’ve got a fuller slate on Tuesday with 51 games, including some heavyweight matchups. UConn vs. Kansas tops the list in Lawrence, but we’ve also got Florida vs. Duke, North Carolina vs. Kentucky, and the start of conference play in the Big Ten. The ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge will get a lot of buzz over the next couple of days and there are some strong matchups to not only evaluate where teams are, but possibly help their resumes when we get to Selection Sunday.
But, I’m not just looking at the marquee matchups. I’m looking at all 51 of them to see what today’s top plays are based on what we’ve seen so far and how the teams match up.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Oklahoma Sooners at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (-4.5, 159.5)
7 p.m. ET
To Winston-Salem we go for the ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge and a favored ACC team at home, as the Demon Deacons host the Sooners. Oklahoma has played three worthwhile teams thus far, losing to Gonzaga by 15 and Nebraska by 6 with a one-point win over Marquette. Their other four games have been against teams ranked in the 300s by Torvik and all of those have been at home.
In the three games against top-70 opponents, the Sooners only had TO% on defense of 9.5%, 7.0%, and 7.9%, allowing 1.123, 1.466, and 1.171 points per possession. They’ve been able to score in two of those games, with Gonzaga as the main exception, but this has been a very efficient team on 2s and a less efficient team on 3s. The Sooners are shooting 57.7% on 2s, which is 52nd in the nation, but 34.5% on 3s, which is 141st.
So far this season, Wake Forest has forced teams into a lot of 3s, as they rank 307th in 3P Rate, with opponents firing away at a 45.2% clip from deep. Given that the Demon Deacons are in their home digs, I have to think this benefits them, as the Sooners will be forced into long jumpers with unfamiliar sightlines.
Wake Forest’s two losses have come in neutral settings, with a one-point OT loss to No. 1 Michigan, at least according to Torvik’s ratings, in the only game where they averaged under a point per possession. They also lost by a point to Texas Tech in a game where the Red Raiders had a big effort on the offensive glass. Oklahoma’s offensive rebounding numbers are inflated by what they did against Saint Francis and Arkansas Pine-Bluff.
This is also a pace war game, as Wake Forest ranks 16th in TO% on defense and 61st in adjusted tempo per Torvik. Oklahoma is 215th in TO% and 262nd in adjusted tempo. I think the pace will affect them as well. Even with a much more difficult schedule to this point, Wake Forest is in the 86th percentile in Net Rating per CBB Analytics and Oklahoma is in the 81st percentile. Also, Wake Forest is in the 87th percentile in Paint Points Per Game, while Oklahoma is in the 71st.
The Demon Deacons are just stronger in a lot of areas and have home-court on their side.
Pick: Wake Forest -4.5 (-110)
Lindenwood Lions at Northern Illinois Huskies (-4.5, 149.5)
8 p.m. ET
Lindenwood makes a stop in DeKalb on their way to Charleston, as they take on Northern Illinois before opening conference play against Eastern Illinois on Saturday. These two teams have pretty similar profiles this season in that they’ve beaten the teams that they’ve been supposed to and have lost to the top teams that they’ve played in paycheck games. There is one exception, as Lindenwood got beat by a really poor Alabama A&M team, but it’s mostly been status quo otherwise.
Stylistically, I don’t love this matchup for Lindenwood. They’re shooting 24.6% on 3s so far this season and Northern Illinois has forced opponents into a 3-point shot on nearly 44% of attempts. The Huskies have not defended the rim well and maybe that’s an area where Lindenwood can find some success, but the Lions really only have one efficient player attacking the rim and that’s Jadis Jones.
The Huskies are a major positive regression candidate on the inside, as they have a shot share of 43.1% on Close Twos, but are only shooting 54.5% on those attempts. Stepping back a bit with the schedule should help in that area. They have an 86.2% Rim & 3 Rate per Torvik, which is something I definitely like to see, given that Lindenwood takes nearly twice as many mid-range jumpers.
With the Huskies at home for just the third time this season and second time against a Division I opponent, I do think some of their offensive numbers will improve. They were 2-of-22 from 3 against Austin Peay on the road a week ago in their last game, which really did a number on some good 3-point efforts prior to that.
Pick: Northern Illinois -4.5 (-108)
Abilene Christian Wildcats at Pepperdine Waves (-1.5, 136.5)
9 p.m. ET
A random one-off trip for Abilene Christian out to Malibu, as they’ll take on Pepperdine before heading back home to face New Mexico State. The Wildcats are a short pup here against a Waves team that has two wins over lower-division teams and just one win over a D-I team. It was a huge outlier shooting performance for them against New Orleans with 1.219 PPP.
The Waves are shooting 83.5% at the free throw line with 101 makes on 121 shots. They haven’t even made 101 2-point shots yet this season, with a 46.5% 2P% on 99-of-213 shooting. To make matters worse, they’re shooting just 26.2% from 3. Over the last three games against Stephen F. Austin, Fresno State, and a really bad Cal State Fullerton team, the Waves have .895, .771, and .981 PPP.
Abilene Christian has played a wide variety of teams thus far, losing by 10 to Stephen F. Austin in a game where they were outscored 36-6 on 3s. They played a William & Mary team that runs with tempo and spreads you out on defense with Brian Earl’s Cornell offense in action. That was also a back-to-back after beating UTSA the day prior.
Abilene Christian is a positive regression candidate at the rim with a 45.3% FG% on a 44.6% shot share. They’re going to get to the rim more than Pepperdine in this game and should be able to use that to their advantage. The Wildcats are also a strong team on the glass and play a very aggressive, in-your-face style that can be high-variance with turnovers and free throw attempts, but Pepperdine doesn’t see that in the WCC.
I’ll take the better coach in Brette Turner and the team that has more positive signs for the future in this one as a short underdog. I think the line move is because of Abilene Christian’s high fouling rate coupled with Pepperdine’s elite FT%, but I feel like other factors in the game matter more.
Pick: Abilene Christian +1.5 (-110)
