College Basketball Bets
We’re back at it again on the college basketball hardwood with 33 games on Tuesday. A lot of teams are easing back into the rhythms of the season after exams and holidays, so there will be some teams, especially the big favorites, knocking off a good chunk of rust. That said, we also have conference play going on, so certain teams don’t have that luxury, as we have conference games today in the ACC, Big East, Mountain West, MAC, A-10, SoCon, West Coast, American, Ohio Valley, and Southland.
Keep in mind as conference play gets underway that there are some major strength of schedule discrepancies out there. Bettors usually pick those off early, but they should still be a big factor in your handicapping on a regular basis until things level off.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Western Michigan Broncos at Toledo Rockets (-10.5, 161.5)
6:30 p.m. ET
We start in the MAC with this matchup between Western Michigan and Toledo. Neither team has played in over a week, so they’re both well-rested for this Tuesday night tilt. The Broncos are already 0-1 in conference play, but this will be the conference lid-lifter for the Rockets.
This is a handicap based on shot volume and venue. Toledo actually hasn’t taken as many 3s this season as they usually do, but this game represents a chance to fire away. The Broncos have allowed a 48.6% 3P Rate, which ranks 354th out of 365 Division I teams. Toledo is shooting 35.1% from 3. But, if we dig deeper, head coach Tod Kowalczyk really only plays six guys and he has a well-rested lineup that can handle that today. The six primary guys for the Rockets are 66-of-175 from 3, which is a 37.7% clip. The reserves are only 8-of-36 from deep, dragging down the team’s success rate.
The volume of 3-point shots should be a positive for Toledo in this game. Furthermore, the Rockets are 85th in TO% on offense and 81st in TO% on defense, while Western Michigan is 265th on offense and 358th on defense. From a possession and shot volume standpoint, Toledo should have more scoring opportunities.
The Rockets are not good defensively at all, which is the hold-up in laying this price, but if they’re going to badly outscore Western Michigan from 3 and also take a lot more shots, they can simply use their offense as their defense when it comes to covering this spread.
Pick: Toledo -10.5 (-112)
New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos (-5.5, 147.5)
11 p.m. ET
A lot of casual college basketball fans and bettors probably only think about Boise State as the team that lost to Hawaii Pacific in the season opener, a strip mall university in Honolulu. It turns out that this is actually a pretty good team and they’ll look to rebound from losing their Mountain West opener in Reno 10 days ago in this one against New Mexico.
Here’s the thing – I think New Mexico is a very good team. First-year head coach Eric Olen (UC San Diego) has given this team a different look. They’ve held opponents to a 26% shot share on Close Twos, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the nation (Baylor, Nebraska, Purdue). As it is, Boise State has had problems finishing on the interior, posting just a 54.6% FG% on shot attempts at the rim.
If Boise State shoots better than their 35.7% from 3, they’ll be in good shape here, as they rank in the top 100 in 3P%, but they are only shooting 33.3% from 3 after starting 20-of-44 in their first two games of the season.
I’m hoping that freshman Tomislav Buljan will be back for the Lobos after a long layoff. I’m kind of hoping that Chris Howell won’t be, as he’s been a turnover machine, but he is an 88% FT% guy. But Buljan has averaged 11 points and 9 rebounds in his games against Division I opponents. He hurt his hamstring against Florida Gulf Coast back on Dec. 14 when he played just 12 minutes and missed the MWC opener against San Jose State, but that was back on Dec. 20.
Even with Buljan limited, Olen has this offense going in the right direction. In their last four games against D-I opponents, they’ve scored 1.370 (Santa Clara), 1.159 (VCU), 1.099 (FGCU), 1.291 (San Jose State) points per possession. They also had 1.103 PPP against Mississippi State earlier this season, a borderline top-60 team in eFG% defense.
Pick: New Mexico +5.5 (-112)
