College Basketball Bets
We have 23 college hoops contests on Tuesday, as exam weeks are taking up time at a lot of colleges and universities in advance of the holiday break. Keeping players eligible is critically important, especially for a lot of those JUCO transfers that maybe had academic issues at their previous stops or are stepping up academically at their new programs.
We have the 23 games today, 29 tomorrow, eight on Thursday, and eight on Friday before another mammoth slate on Saturday. It’s a bit of a tricky time for betting college hoops with limited games, lessened home-court advantages with students studying or heading home for the break, and a lot of regional games that could be big mismatches. Just some things to keep in mind as we roll along. While we are light on volume today, at least we do have some really good games at the top of the card.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Little Rock Trojans at West Virginia Mountaineers (-26.5, 130.5)
7 p.m. ET
Little Rock heads to Morgantown for this matchup against West Virginia. It will be just the second top-100 opponent for the Trojans per Torvik’s rankings and they lost that game to Marquette 89-49. First-year head coach Ross Hodge has played the bully role well this season, as the Mountaineers have lost to every non-Quadrant 4 opponent that they have played, but they are 7-0 with an average margin of victory of 23.6 PPG.
In those seven games, WVU’s opponents have scored 54, 65, 47, 49, 59, 38, and 49 points. Little Rock is a bad team that hasn’t played all that tough of a schedule so far, but they are still 275th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 208th in eFG%, and 352nd in 3P%. I find it very unlikely that they get inside with any kind of frequency against the Mountaineers, so expect a lot of awful jump shots from Little Rock in this game.
The Trojans have a 43.8% shot share on Close Twos and are shooting 60.1% on them, but they’re not going to find that same success here and also only a 24.6% TO% on offense that ranks 363rd in the nation.
We’ve seen about a five-point line move on the WVU side here and I cannot argue with that one bit. The total hasn’t really moved much, but West Virginia is 348th in the nation in adjusted tempo and Little Rock is 328th. Even with a 21.7% TO% on defense that ranks 25th in the nation per Torvik, the Mountaineers rank in the 37th percentile in percentage of points scored on fast breaks per CBB Analytics. They just don’t really get out in transition and rank in the 8th percentile in pace.
Not only that, but WVU ranks in the 49th percentile in percentage of points in the paint. Even against lesser opponents, they’re taking a lot of jumpers. Little Rock ranks in the 97th percentile in percentage of points in the paint, but West Virginia has allowed a 49.8% FG% at the rim, which ranks 17th in the nation.
Pick: Under 130.5 (-105)
Columbia Lions (-4.5, 147.5) at Stony Brook Seawolves
7 p.m. ET
Academics come first at the Ivies, which is why Columbia won’t play another game until Dec. 21 after this road tilt on Long Island. These are actually two pretty good teams. The Lions have played a very weak schedule, so I do think that we’ll find out if the rubber really meets the road soon enough. Maybe as soon as today.
Stony Brook has had their moments, with their best one coming on the road at Loyola Marymount in a three-point win. But, I don’t think that the Seawolves match up all that well with Columbia here and the market seems to agree with a line move towards the visitors.
Let’s start with the shot selection, since that’s where a lot of my handicapping starts. Columbia has a 43.7% shot share on Close Twos as defined by Torvik, while Stony Brook has a 34.4% shot share. Not only that, but the Seawolves are only making 51.4% of those shot attempts at the rim, while Columbia is at 61%.
Stony Brook is 92nd in the nation in 3P Rate and both teams do push opponents off of the 3-point line, so I do like that for the Seawolves. However, they’re only shooting 33.3% on those shots. Columbia is shooting nearly 42%. Obviously that will regress a bit as we go forward, but first-year head coach Kevin Hovde has been a money maker this season because of his past. He was an assistant for Todd Golden and Kyle Smith and also spent time with Chris Mooney at Richmond. All three of those coaches have had tremendous success and have boasted a lot of good offensive teams.
We should get a huge effort out of Hovde’s team tonight with the big break coming up and he can use that as a motivating factor. This is a bit of a step up in class relative to their other opponents, but they stepped up and beat Hofstra last week and the context clues in the market with this line move, even though we’ve seen a ton of strength of schedule-induced line moves, are pretty telling.
Pick: Columbia -4.5 (-110)
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks at Arizona State Sun Devils (-17.5, 151.5)
9 p.m. ET
Arizona State steps back a little bit tonight, as they’ve played one of the better schedules in the country. So far, the Sun Devils have played Gonzaga, Texas, USC, and Oklahoma, with those last two opponents listed as their two most recent games. This game is sandwiched in between playing Santa Clara on a neutral and former conference foe UCLA.
This feels like it could be a bit of a tricky spot here in the midst of final exams. The Sun Devils are a huge favorite in this game and it is a win that they should be able to bank, but being motivated to go out there and blow out an opponent that doesn’t mean much takes a little bit of mental fortitude and effort.
This is also an Arizona State team that ranks in the 90th percentile in percentage of points coming on fast breaks per CBB Analytics, but the Lumberjacks take pretty good care of the basketball on the whole. Arizona State is 279th in Assist Rate per Torvik, so I don’t really think that their half-court performance has been all that strong and they’ve covered up some offensive woes by shooting 39% from 3.
Northern Arizona plays at a pretty average tempo and only has a 16.8% TO% on offense, which should slow this game down a little bit and keep the Sun Devils from getting out in transition. The Lumberjacks also play pretty passive defense and don’t foul a whole lot.
This just feels like a big spread for ASU with some situational considerations, a Little Brother getting a crack at Big Brother, and other factors.
Pick: Northern Arizona +17.5 (-112)
