College Basketball Bets
Terrible weather in the northeast has forced a couple of changes to the college basketball schedule. Xavier was supposed to visit Providence, but with about 40 inches of snow, that makes travel a little bit difficult. We could see a lot of schedules altered for those teams as the week goes along, so keep an eye out for that, especially with the regular season winding down and schedules a bit condensed.
A couple of games got some extra attention from me this morning, with Miami vs. Florida State and New Mexico vs. Nevada, but there are plenty of other games that present betting opportunities for us on the slate.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Troy Trojans (-11.5, 134.5)
7 p.m. ET
It is important to know the context of each conference tournament at this time of the year because there can be some very important betting angles. For example, the Sun Belt has a very unique conference tournament format, in which the top two seeds get automatic byes all the way to the semifinals and the third and fourth-ranked teams get byes to the quarterfinals. In other words, being a top-two seed is very, very valuable.
Troy is among three teams sitting at 10-6 right now in the Sun Belt with two games left, both of them big favorite roles against the Louisiana contingent in the conference. The Trojans beat the Ragin’ Cajuns by 20 in Lafayette in the first meeting and something similar is very much possible here.
Troy is one of my favorite teams in the nation because head coach Scott Cross gets it. His Trojans have a Rim & 3 Rate over 90%, as only 9.9% of their shots are mid-range jumpers. They have a 43.6% shot share on Close Twos and a 46.5% 3P Rate. In the first meeting, Troy was 15-of-26 at the rim and 17-of-29 from 3. I’m not sure that they’ll be able to shoot the lights out to the same degree, but they are at home now and they’re shooting 33.7% at home compared to 32.5% overall in conference play.
For some reason, the Trojans also ramp up the defensive pressure at home. Troy is second in TO% on both offense and defense in their home conference games. That is typically the one advantage that Louisiana has had in their games, not surprising given that their head coach Quannas White was an assistant with Houston. So, that usual advantage is likely to be neutralized and then we’re looking at a Louisiana team that is ninth in eFG% offense and 12th in eFG% defense.
Troy is hyper-motivated here with what’s at stake in terms of conference tournament seeding and, even though this will be a low-possession game, should be able to create some margin with their shot selection.
Pick: Troy -11.5
Wyoming Cowboys at Boise State Broncos (-8.5, 148.5)
9 p.m. ET
Seeding is on the line during the remainder of the Mountain West Conference season, but not to the degree in the Sun Belt. Boise State has been a bit of an underperformer in conference play thus far, sitting at just 8-8, even though they have the third-best adjusted offensive efficiency. They are seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency, which has held them back a bit. What has really held them back is that opponents are shooting 38% from 3 against the Broncos.
Wyoming, though, is a really poor 3-point shooting team. They’re shooting just 31.3% from deep in conference play, which ranks 10th. The Broncos won the first game by 16 in Laramie and made double the amount of 3s that the Cowboys did. Boise State was 10-of-26 and Wyoming was just 5-of-19, which helped fuel the lopsided victory.
Boise State also had 26 shot attempts at the rim compared to 21 for Wyoming. So, we saw some shot selection advantages for Boise State and those should carry over into this game at home as well. Wyoming is 10th in eFG% offense and defense, so they’ve really had issues on both ends of the court. Boise State has also been better at forcing the issue as it pertains to getting to the free throw line.
It just feels like when you add up the aggregate possession after possession, Boise State will be the better team here. Wyoming is only shooting 29.6% from 3 in conference road games. All in all, it’s hard to see the Cowboys matching the efficiency and the 3-point shooting could make a huge difference.
Pick: Boise State -8.5
