College Basketball Bets
It will be a busier Tuesday on the college basketball card than we are used to seeing, as we’ll have 31 games on the docket. We also have a wide variety of games with the ACC, Big Ten, Mountain West, Big East, A-10, Missouri Valley, MAC, Ohio Valley, and MAAC all represented. After last night’s heavyweight tilt between Kansas and Texas Tech, we don’t have quite the same kind of headline matchup tonight, but there are a few games that will draw some national attention.
This should be a good card for those who are just getting into college hoops because of the variety. There are some huge favorites, some games that project to be competitive, and some that are in-between, meaning you can really sink your teeth into whatever you want and try to find a betting angle. We also have Miami looking to improve to 23-0 against a Buffalo team that took them to overtime when they met a couple weeks back.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Illinois Chicago Flames at Murray State Racers (-6.5, 158.5)
8 p.m. ET
First-year head coach Ryan Miller is facing his first big bit of adversity right now. The Racers have dropped four in a row as they welcome an improving UIC team to CFSB Center for this MVC matchup. UIC failed to cover last Tuesday when I took them against Indiana State as a 6.5-point forward, winning by just a bucket, but there was some bad luck in there, as they led by 13 with under six minutes left and actually led by as many as 20 in the first half.
Since Elijah Crawford came back, UIC has lost one game and it was the first game he played, a seven-point loss at Valparaiso. Crawford did not play in the first game against Murray State, which the Flames lost 81-77 on their home floor. The Flames have averaged 1.082 points per possession since Crawford’s return and they probably will have to keep up offensively with Murray State to cover in this one.
In the first game without Crawford, who is averaging 4.3 assists per game overall and 4.7 per game since returning, the Flames settled for a lot of mid-range jumpers. I think they’ll find more success getting to the rim in this one with an actual facilitator on the floor. UIC had 14 assists against 15 turnovers in the first meeting. Both teams had 18 offensive rebounds, so we could see a lot of second-chance opportunities here.
During this four-game losing streak, Murray State has allowed 1.234, 1.223, 1.017, and 1.459 points per possession. UIC isn’t as good offensively as Belmont, but Drake, Northern Iowa, and Illinois State all rank below the Flames in adjusted offensive efficiency.
I’ll take my chances that UIC can keep it close here.
Pick: UIC +6.5
UNLV Rebels at Fresno State Bulldogs (-1.5, 150.5)
11 p.m. ET
It has been an inconsistent season to say the least for UNLV, as Year 1 under Josh Pastner has resulted in a wide variety of outcomes. But, I think they do have a good matchup tonight against a Fresno State team that can’t throw the ball in the ocean, but has a lot of solid defensive metrics.
UNLV struggled to shoot the basketball in non-conference play, but they’re shooting better than 37% from 3 in their Mountain West matchups. They sit fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and eighth in adjusted defensive efficiency, while Fresno State is 11th on offense and fourth in defense. A lot of that comes from their conference-best 27.7% 3P% against, but that looks like a stat that will regress and a good shooting team like UNLV has a good chance to start that process.
Furthermore, UNLV is better at getting to the rim and defending the rim, two advantages that should work in their favor, even if they don’t shoot the ball very well. The Rebels were 16-of-21 at the rim in the first meeting between these two teams and that kind of efficiency on high-percentage shots should prove valuable tonight.
Lastly, this game is a big step down in class for the Rebels from their last four games, so even though their recent metrics have looked a tad disappointing, this is a good spot for them to bounce back against a team at or below their level.
Pick: UNLV ML (+102)
