College Basketball Bets
We had 17 games on Monday night featuring teams that a lot of people don’t follow. We have 36 games on Tuesday with a lot of blue bloods, major-conference programs, and a little bit of a sprinkle of one-bid conferences. It should be a very exciting night on the hardwood with the Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, Big East, SEC, West Coast, Mountain West, A-10, MAC, Missouri Valley, and one lone Ohio Valley Conference game.
It’s one of those something for everyone types of cards, and while there are no games to take a really super deep dive down the college hoops rabbit hole, it will be easier to find injury information and other notes about today’s teams than it can be on other days.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Ohio Bobcats at Toledo Rockets (-2.5, 160.5)
7 p.m. ET
Doesn’t it seem fitting to focus on some Tuesday night MACtion here? Ohio and Toledo square off in Northwest Ohio (or Southeast Michigan, if you will) with the Rockets coming off of a lopsided loss to undefeated Miami (OH) and Ohio off of one of their most complete performances of the season against Buffalo.
If we remove the Quadrant 4 games from the ledger for these two teams, Ohio is 5-6 against Q3 or better opponents, while Toledo is just 2-6. This actually counts as a Q4 game for Toledo by virtue of being at home, but I don’t love this version of Tod Kowalczyk’s team. It looks a lot like last season’s team, which was 10-8 in conference play, the worst record since 2020 in that department. The Rockets are putting together their third straight season as one of the worst defensive teams in the nation.
They have picked up their pace a bit with turnovers this season, which has artificially inflated their defensive efficiency metrics. They’re still 341st in eFG%, 298th in 3P%, and 337th in 2P%. This is a really poor defensive team. Even in the four games where they had a TO% over 22%, they allowed 1.066, 1.020, 1.220, and .858 points per possession, with the most recent one coming against a terrible Northern Illinois team.
Against Q3 or better opponents, Ohio is 99th in eFG% offense, including a 56.3% success rate on 2s that ranks 31st in the nation. The Bobcats have just been terrible at shooting 3s all season long, firing away at 28.7%, which is 343rd. Even though they’ve only shot 28.3% on 3s in five conference games, they are still 4-1 thanks to their efficiency on the interior. They’re shooting 62.3% on 2s in league play and also have the best 2P% defense in the conference thus far.
Usually we see line movements on teams that are expected to win the turnover battle and the 3-point shooting battle. Technically, Toledo would be favored to win both, as they have the higher TO% on defense and the lower TO% on offense, plus they are shooting a much higher percentage from 3. But, that’s not the case and the line is even showing some bias towards the Bobcats with extra juice on the +2.5. I think that says a lot.
Pick: Ohio +2.5 (-118)
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Eastern Illinois Panthers (-8.5, 132.5)
8 p.m. ET
Leave it to me to focus on the lone Ohio Valley Conference game of the night. But, there are some methods to the madness here. Let’s start with Western Illinois, as three of their four wins this season are against lower-division teams. The Leathernecks are shooting 44.7% on 2s and 30.2% on 3s in games against Q4 opponents this season. They have a 19.3% TO% on offense and have been terrible on the defensive glass.
There really aren’t any redeeming qualities for Chad Boudreau’s team this season. They are 359th in eFG% in Q4 games, 1-8 overall, and 358th in eFG% offense. That’s not to say that Marty Simmons’ EIU crew is that much better, but they do take better care of the basketball and have limited six opponents to 27.3% from 3. Offensively, the Panthers still have their challenges, but they are at least shooting 35.9% from 3 in those games.
Senior transfer Andre Washington has been a big help. He’s shooting 37.5% from 3 and has just an 8.6% TO% with a 23.5% Usage Rate. He’s averaging 11.4 PPG and has been a slasher capable of getting to the rim and also a guy that can shoot 3s. Using the On/Off data at CBBAnalytics.com, Washington makes a HUGE difference. The team is -6.5 in Net Rating with him on the floor, but -22.7 in Net Rating without him. They are much better in both Offensive Rating (7.3-point difference) and Defensive Rating (8.9-point difference) and they’ve also taken better care of the basketball with a 1.3% drop in TO%. Washington missed the first seven D-I games of the season and the Panthers are 3-4 with him against D-I opponents, including a 3-2 record in OVC play.
Western Illinois is already 0-6 in conference play and they’ve lost their games by an average of 13 PPG. Eastern Illinois is shooting nearly 76% at the free throw line this season, so with this one in that fouling range, the Panthers have a good chance to ice this one away at the stripe.
Pick: Eastern Illinois -8.5 (+102)
Air Force Falcons at San Jose State Spartans (-7.5, 131.5)
10 p.m. ET
Back in 2014, San Jose State asked football players to try out for the basketball team because things had gotten so bad with suspensions and injuries. They’re not at that point yet in 2026, but it’s possible. Tim Miles had to patchwork a lineup together last time out against Grand Canyon without four of his top five scorers. It was a big opportunity for freshman Ben Roseborough, who had 23 of the team’s 58 points.
But, it looks as though San Jose State will be very shorthanded again. Yaphet Moundi (12.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG) and Bradley transfer JaVaughn Hannah are out. Leading scorer Colby Garland (19.8 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.0 APG) and Jermaine Washington (11.1 PPG, 3.3 APG) are both questionable with concussions. In a game against Air Force’s matchup zone defense, the absences of Garland (34.8% 3P%) and Washington (37.2% 3P%) would be extremely detrimental. Neither guy suited up on Dec. 10 and the Spartans had .829 points per possession.
Air Force just generally stinks on offense, shooting just 28.9% from 3 with a 22% TO% and one of the 20 lowest ORB% in the nation. They also play at a snail’s pace. In conference play so far, the Falcons have scored .908, .816, .597, .939, and .712 PPP while starting 0-5. Even 7-footer Wesley Celichowski hasn’t really been an offensive option, as his playing time has dwindled.
This is a big step down in class for Air Force having played San Diego State, Wyoming, UNLV, Utah State, and New Mexico, but I still don’t expect their offense to do much. It could very well help their defensive numbers, though, especially with the Spartans so shorthanded.
Pick: Under 131.5 (-105)
