College Basketball Bets
Our first day post-college football brings 34 college basketball games to the table, as we have some marquee matchups, big brands, and a good slate for bettors to sink their teeth into this betting market. The SEC, ACC, Big 12, Big Ten, and Big East are all in action, along with the MAC, Mountain West, A-10, and one lone game from both the Missouri Valley and Ohio Valley.
The card may be small on quantity, but is high on quality, including the Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas game that I previewed here. Hopefully we can all have some fun with today’s card, especially for those just now getting into college hoops with football winding down.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Texas Tech Red Raiders (-1.5, 155.5) at Baylor Bears
9 p.m. ET
Lone Star State bragging rights are on the line twice this week for Texas Tech, as they head to Waco to face Baylor and then return home to Lubbock to take on Houston. It’s a huge week for Grant McCasland’s team and they look pretty well-prepared for the challenge.
The Red Raiders are 6-4 against Quadrant 2 or better opponents, including a 3-1 mark in Big 12 play. Their shooting numbers are a big reason why. In those 10 games, they’re shooting 36.1% from 3 and 53.9% on 2s, which rank 60th and 55th, respectively, in the nation. Texas Tech doesn’t get to the rim very much, but it hasn’t been a huge issue to this point.
And it shouldn’t be against Baylor tonight, as the Bears also have a low shot share on Close Twos, but haven’t been able to shoot the rock nearly as well in those Q2 or better games. Baylor is 4-6 and 1-4 in conference play in those games, where they’ve shot just 45.6% on 2s and 34.3% on 3s. That 3-point percentage is still 100th in the nation, but they’ve squandered a lot of 2-point opportunities and haven’t taken advantage of all their success on the offensive glass.
One big separator between the two teams is that Baylor doesn’t have a true point guard. Texas Tech does and Christian Anderson, who leads the team with 96.1% of the available minutes played, is fourth in the nation in assists per game with 7.4. Baylor’s highest player in assists per game ranks 289th with 3.4. In a game with two physical teams and a lot of reliance on finding open looks for jumpers, a floor general is a big deal.
All four of Texas Tech’s losses are Quadrant 1-A games in road or neutral settings, so I can understand the hesitation about Baylor here, but the Bears aren’t a top-50 team for Torvik and are outside the top 40 for KenPom, so this doesn’t qualify as a Q1-A game. Against a McCasland defense, the fact that Baylor doesn’t have a take-charge ball-handler is a problem.
Pick: Texas Tech -1.5
Michigan State Spartans (-10.5, 137.5) at Oregon Ducks
9 p.m. ET
Tom Izzo might have a team that can take him places in the month of March this year. The Spartans’ lone losses have been at home against Duke and on the road by a bucket to Nebraska. Since that Nebraska loss, Izzo has rallied the troops for wins by 29, 10, 21, and 17 over USC, Northwestern, Indiana, and Washington.
He’ll be looking for a fifth straight double-digit win tonight to sweep the Washington/Oregon double on the road, as the Spartans play a late tip in Eugene. Certainly that’s a bit of a concern, but the shorthanded Ducks could really get stifled by this elite Spartans defense. Including seven Big Ten games thus far, Izzo’s team has allowed .889, 1.042, .890, .718, .984, .926, and .942 points per possession. They’ve scored 1.214, 1.099, .860 (Nebraska), 1.126, 1.133, 1.250, and 1.196.
If we get the average of those seven games, we’re looking at .913 PPP allowed and 1.125 PPP scored. Extrapolating that out to what is expected to be a pretty low-possession game here, likely around 64-66 possessions, we’re looking at 73-59ish type of game.
The Ducks are missing 7-footer Nate Bittle and starting point guard Jackson Shelstad. Bittle is in a walking boot and the news broke over the weekend that Shelstad may miss the rest of the season with a hand injury. Oregon rose up and played well against Michigan over the weekend in a 10-point loss, but they lost by 10 to Ohio State and 35 to Nebraska in the two games prior.
In four games without Shelstad, the Ducks have allowed 1.191, 1.148, 1.403, and 1.201 points per possession. Izzo has the chance at a solid Quadrant 2 road win here over a Ducks team with damaged wings and I don’t see any reason for him to show mercy. Michigan State’s next game is at home against Maryland, so it isn’t a bad lookahead spot or anything and the Spartans are 8-2 in Q2 or better games and third in the nation for Torvik in those games. Izzo has to be thinking about seeding at this point. Oregon, meanwhile, is probably staring at a wasted season and they’re just 1-9 against Top-100 opponents.
Pick: Michigan State -10.5
Air Force Falcons at Colorado State Rams (-20.5, 132.5)
9 p.m. ET
Saturday was an interesting day for the Air Force Academy basketball team. Head coach Joe Scott was suspended in the morning for alleged mistreatment of cadet-athletes, leaving assistant head coach Jon Jordan in charge. It sparked the Falcons to a solid 16-9 lead in the early going against Nevada, but then the Wolf Pack scored 21 straight points and the rout was on from there.
Colorado State is the slowest team in the nation with an adjusted tempo of 61.9 possessions. Air Force is 318th in adjusted tempo. So, a 20.5-point head start seems pretty helpful for the Falcons, especially as a team that can’t really shoot all that well. We’ll see if leading scorer Caleb Walker can go here after not playing in the last game. It did lead to more minutes for 7-footer Wesley Celichowski, who had 11 points. This is a Colorado State team that doesn’t get to the rim a lot and takes a ton of long jumpers under former Northern Iowa star Ali Farokmanesh.
This is a terrific offensive team for the Rams, but they struggle a lot on defense. The Rams are sixth in eFG% offense, but 286th in eFG% defense. They are 44th in 2P%, but 279th in 2P% defense. They are third in the nation in 3P%, but 260th in 3P% defense. As long as Air Force can chip in a little bit offensively here, they can cover.
Also, the Scott news dropped just before their Saturday game. With a few days to process, and maybe a healthier environment under Jordan, perhaps we’ll see them come out and play better than usual. Either way, I’ll take my chances getting this kind of head start in a very slow-paced game. Air Force has turned the ball over on 22.2% of their possessions, but Colorado State is a very passive defense, so this one could be played at a glacial pace.
Pick: Air Force +20.5
