College Basketball Bets
We’ll have over 12 hours of college basketball today spread over 24 conference tournament games, as some of the big boys get going. Today’s newcomers to the hoops schedule are the Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, and Conference USA, as we’ll also see some NCAA Tournament berths decided in the CAA, Horizon, West Coast, and MAAC. In other words, a tremendous day of basketball.
Just a reminder that we’ve got previews of all of the conference tournaments, that our March Mania Betting Guide comes out next Monday night, and we’ll have daily best bets throughout the NCAA Tournament, along with picks and plays from the NIT, CBI, and the College Basketball Crown.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Monmouth Hawks vs. Hofstra Pride (-4.5, 132.5)
7 p.m. ET
The CAA Championship Game is a No. 3 vs. No. 4 matchup, as No. 1 UNC Wilmington and No. 2 Charleston got bounced in blowout fashion in the quarterfinals. Hofstra needed overtime to dispose of a scrappy Towson team last night and Monmouth beat Campbell by 10 to set up the third game in three days for both teams.
These teams played two games three weeks apart against each other back in January. Hofstra won 67-64 on the 10th and 73-57 on the 31st, sparked by an 11-of-26 performance from 3. In the first game, neither team could throw the ball in the ocean from the floor, as 47 of the game’s 131 points were at the free throw line.
Hofstra may have been the No. 3 seed, but the Pride were favored to win the CAA Tournament and here they are. Monmouth was +950, but the expectation was that they’d have to face one UNC Wilmington and then either Hofstra or Charleston, but the Seahawks’ upset loss cleared a better path for the Hawks, who were one of the better defensive teams in this conference, but a lot of that had to do with a CAA-leading 19.8% TO%. The Hawks were sixth in 2P% defense and seventh in 3P% defense in conference play.
In the first meeting between these two, Hofstra was incredibly just 3-of-14 at the rim, squandering their 16 offensive rebounds. Of course, they did go 29-of-33 at the free throw line and that eased the pain. They were +11 in points at the FT line in that three-point overtime win. They were also down by as many as nine in the first half, so they dug a hole before turning it around. They never trailed in the second meeting.
With that, I’ll lay the Hofstra number here. They should win the battle on the glass again and did lead the conference in ORB%. They shot 37.2% from 3 in conference play and are going to have a higher shot volume from deep than Monmouth, as the Pride have already taken 66 3-pointers in two games in this tournament.
The Pride also won both regular season games despite turning the ball over 31 times, including 19 times in their 16-point win. Even with those lost possessions, they played their signature strong defense and made up for it either at the free throw line or from deep. I’d expect the same here.
Pick: Hofstra -4.5
Grambling State Tigers (-7.5, 142.5) vs. Jackson State Tigers
8:30 p.m. ET
Well, the Tigers are guaranteed to advance here in this Grambling vs. Jackson State matchup. But, it sure looks like one team is in a better spot than the other and that team is Grambling. We’ve seen a three-point line move on this game and may see another wave of Grambling money if Daeshun Ruffin isn’t seen during warmups.
The Jackson State star got hurt in the meaningless final game against Mississippi Valley State, playing just 14 minutes with nine points. Ruffin, who has averaged more than 23 PPG against Division I opponents was seen on crutches after that Mar. 5 game, and it’s only five days later.
Ruffin missed three other regular season games, but he’s played over 30 minutes in virtually every other game. Using CBB Analytics’ On/Off stats tool, it is almost hard to believe how much things change without him on the floor. Jackson State has a -15.2 Net Rating with him on the floor. They have a -35.8 Net Rating without him. Their offensive rating drops from 102.9 points per 100 possessions to just 94.2 and their defensive rating goes from 118.1 to 130. They also slow down from a pace standpoint, and that’s what I’m looking at here.
I do subscribe to the “Superstar Subtraction Theory”, in that everybody tries to do a little bit more with a star player sidelined, assuming he isn’t going to play. But, I do think his absence will slow down the pace of this game. Multiple players for Jackson State actually missed time late in the season and head coach Mo Williams said he hoped that some of the injured would come back, but we’ll see.
Either way, this is likely to be a shorthanded team missing some creators and scorers. If nothing else, they’re not 100%. Grambling played at more of a national average pace, while Jackson State played at a top-70 adjusted tempo per Torvik. We should see a stronger defensive effort from the guys who are out there for Jackson State. Also, the one regular season meeting with Ruffin, who had 38 of Jackson State’s 66 points, landed 135. Now we’re looking at a game played in a neutral setting.
My obvious worry here is a foul fest at the end of the game while the trailing team tries to extend the season as long as possible. But, that’s a chance I’m willing to take.
Pick: Under 142.5
