College Basketball Bets
Two games in the NIT are on the college basketball card for today – Wichita State vs. Tulsa and Saint Joseph’s vs. New Mexico. We’re into the quarterfinals of the NIT now and things should tighten up a bit because these teams all actually have a chance to win a postseason tournament. Only a handful of teams get to win their final games of the season and some of them only got to do that because they weren’t eligible for any postseason play. Only three teams end the season with a win and a title.
The semifinals will be in a neutral setting in Indianapolis, but these quarterfinal games are still on campus sites. I have a play on one of them, but will shed some light on both games here.
We’ve got previews for all of the March Madness Sweet 16 games in our NCAA Tournament Betting Hub.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Wichita State Shockers vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-3.5, 152.5)
7 p.m. ET
Tulsa was one of three futures picks I suggested prior to the start of the NIT and the only one still left standing, as Saint Joseph’s knocked off one of them (Colorado State) and Dayton knocked off the other (UNC Wilmington). The Golden Hurricane now face a conference opponent in what will be the fourth meeting between the teams, as they split the two regular season matchups and then Wichita State knocked Tulsa out of the American Tournament.
Tulsa won the first game 93-83 at home, racking up 1.283 points per possession with a huge offensive performance. Wichita State won the second game 81-77, going 29-of-48 on 2-point shots. What also stands out is that the Shockers won that game despite going just 2-of-14 from 3. That’s probably why we’re seeing a bit of movement towards them with this line. That and the status of 6-foot-7 senior David Green, who left the conference tourney loss to Wichita State after just 12 minutes with a shoulder injury.
Green was said to be a game-time decision on Sunday against UNLV, but couldn’t get back in the lineup and hadn’t been in full-contact practice. He’s probably not going to be able to go here either, but I’m still on Tulsa. Their loss in the conference tournament came the day after beating North Texas in triple overtime, so they were gassed to begin with and then Green was injured. Wichita State hadn’t played in a week and was very well-rested.
In two games without Green, they’ve dominated on the offensive glass with 40 offensive rebounds in wins over Stephen F. Austin and UNLV. They did need OT to beat SFA, but beat UNLV by 11 at home on Sunday. They’re a very good offensive team even without Green, averaging 1.133 and 1.170 points per possession in the two NIT games thus far.
Wichita State beat Wyoming at home and then bumrushed Oklahoma State on the road with a 14-of-26 performance from 3 to get to this game. This is a 34.1% 3P% team for the season, so water should find its level here. After a 9-7 start, Wichita State is up to 24-11, so Paul Mills has done an excellent job, but Tulsa is out for revenge and the NIT semifinals aren’t until April 2, so maybe they’ll have a chance to get Green back and give the senior at least one more college game.
Pick: Tulsa -3.5
Saint Joseph’s Hawks at New Mexico Lobos (-10.5, 152.5)
9 p.m. ET
The second game in elevation in this tournament for Saint Joseph’s will be in Albuquerque, as they already beat one Mountain West team in this tournament. The Hawks went to Colorado State and beat the Rams 69-64 before going to Berkeley to beat Cal 76-75 on Sunday. It’s been a long road trip for the boys from Philly, while New Mexico has been at home for blowout wins over Sam Houston State and George Washington.
The Lobos have racked up 1.407 and 1.258 points per possession over these two games, going 24-of-61 from 3. They’ve won the shot volume battle, turnover battle, and offensive rebounding battle in both games. Meanwhile, Joe’s has 1.030 and 1.119 PPP in their two games, taking just 49 3-pointers. The irony of the shot selection in the NIT so far is that Joe’s has a higher 3P Rate than UNM, but the Lobos are just firing away for Eric Olen, whose first season in the Land of Enchantment has been a good one.
This game feels like a good live betting opportunity. It might be tough for the Hawks to have a lot of gas in the tank. Not because it’s like $5 a gallon these days, but because it’s a third road game a long way from home and another late tip. Also, the Hawks trailed by as many as 19 in the second half against Cal and came back to win on a 3-pointer with 1:49 left and neither team scored the rest of the way.
I’d look for a spot to take UNM live, especially if the Hawks start showing signs of fatigue. Albuquerque is over 5,300 feet in elevation. The second half could be a slog for the Hawks.
