College Basketball Bets
There are 58 teams to handicap on this college basketball Wednesday, as we have 29 games between Division I opponents. The light schedule gets even lighter on Thursday and Friday, a nice respite for those who have been grinding CBB on a day-to-day basis. It’ll be a little sporadic like this until we get through the holiday and get into the meat of conference play in January.
Three stragglers start before the 7 p.m. hour here today, but the vast majority of the card begins then and our last tip will be at 10 p.m. ET, so it will be a good evening to be all over ESPN+ and these games.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakers (-20.5, 142.5)
7 p.m. ET
My approach doesn’t usually include the major conferences, but I couldn’t pass on this game with Minnesota and Purdue. Let’s start with the big spread for teams that rank 355th and 325th in tempo. Minnesota has played remarkably slow this season, but they’ve done a good job of getting to the rim, rebounding, and getting to the free throw line. All things that can help keep this type of game close.
The big worry is that the Golden Gophers haven’t defended the perimeter very well, as opponents are shooting 37.2% and Purdue is firing away at 40.2% from 3, which ranks 11th in the nation per Torvik. But, Niko Medved’s team was ready to go for the Big Ten opener, beating Indiana at home by 9 last time out. Purdue’s top-tier efficiency numbers on offense certainly give them the chance to cover these types of numbers, but they do rank in the 37th percentile in a CBB Analytics metric called “Hakeem Percentage”, which is the combined percentage of steals and blocks.
They have allowed over a point per possession in six of their nine games, with two of those teams being Evansville and Eastern Illinois, who ranked 259th and 319th at the time that Purdue played them. Minnesota is definitely better than that and it will be tough for Purdue to cover this number without steals and blocks to get more possessions and more scoring opportunities in a game that will be played at a very slow pace.
Minnesota is in the 65th percentile in Hakeem Percentage and also ranks in the 100th percentile in FT Rate, while Purdue is in the 11th percentile. It takes a lot to win by 21+ over 65ish possessions and Minnesota has enough positive stats in key areas to keep this one close.
Pick: Minnesota +20.5 (-112)
Duquesne Dukes at Boise State Broncos (-13.5, 149.5)
9 p.m. ET
Duquesne is a long way from home, as the Dukes are out in Idaho to take on Boise State. They’ll also play in Reno this weekend, so this isn’t a one-off trip or anything like that. The Dukes have played the bully role well this season, beating mostly teams that they have been favored to beat, while losing to Villanova and William & Mary. They also lost to Northeastern in a pretty random one-off, but that was a free throw discrepancy that mostly factored in there.
Here in Dru Joyce’s second season, it does seem like his team has made some strides. The Dukes are playing a lot faster with a lot more athleticism this season, as they are running the floor and taking advantage of their length on the interior. Duquesne is shooting 65% on Close Twos and 61.4% overall on 2-pointers. They’ve been aggressive at getting to the rim with a 46.8% shot share and I’ll be curious to see how Boise State stands up to that pace and that type of athleticism.
The Broncos are definitely the better defensive team and they do like to push teams off the 3-point line and funnel them into the mid-range, but with a low shot rate in there, the Dukes are shooting 46.3% on those attempts. Joyce has the roster he wants to run an NBA-style Rim & 3 rate and I can’t help but think St. Vincent-St. Mary teammate LeBron James and Akron head coach Keith Dambrot have a lot to do with the Dukes’ style of offense.
They couldn’t really play that last season, as this year’s 89% Rim & 3 Rate is much higher than last season’s 78.6% mark and they were not nearly as adept at finishing at the rim.
Boise State did drop 101 points on Utah Valley earlier this season, but that’s a team that usually gets to the rim and the Wolverines were 23-of-36 on 2s against the Broncos. The N.C. State game is a good data point, as the Wolfpack have a high Rim & 3 Rate like Duquesne and the Broncos allowed a season-high 1.156 PPP.
Even though the Dukes aren’t as good as the Wolfpack, that style of offense should at least allow them to keep this one within the number.
Pick: Duquesne +13.5 (-102)
