College Basketball Bets
A nice, round number in college basketball today, as we’ve got 50 games to think about. Ten more Division I teams will face lower-division competition, but our focus is on the 100 teams that we can bet on. The earliest tip comes at 5 p.m. ET and the latest tip is at 11 p.m. ET, so the games are staggered nicely for those rocking that ESPN+ subscription.
Once again, we are pretty light on marquee games, as teams shy away from as many of those games as possible with exams and students on holiday break to cut down the home-court advantage. Now it’s more about gearing up for conference play, though some teams do have conference games tonight, including the Big East, Sun Belt, Horizon League, and Mountain West.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Kennesaw State Owls at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3.5, 160.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
A very, very simple handicap here. According to KenPom, Kennesaw State’s strength of opposition ranks 354th by Net Rating, 355th by Offensive Rating, and 341st in Defensive Rating. By comparison, Middle Tennessee’s ranks across the board are 20th, 18th, and 33rd, so the Blue Raiders have played a substantially more daunting schedule to this point.
This will be the first Quadrant 2 game of the season for Kennesaw State, as they are 4-1 against Q4 opponents and just 1-1 against Q3 opponents, with the loss coming at home by 19 points against South Florida.
Both teams have had a lot of time off to prepare for this one, as this is the conference opener for the squads. There aren’t a lot of stats to back up this position because of the disparate strengths of schedule, but I don’t think Kennesaw State will have as much success getting to the rim here as they have thus far. Also, as poor of a schedule as Kennesaw State has played, they are 221st in 3P% and 223rd in 3P% defense. Even MTSU with their brutal slate ranks in the top 100 in 3P% defense.
Pick: Middle Tennessee -3.5 (-108)
Georgetown Hoyas at Marquette Golden Eagles (-5.5, 150.5)
8:30 p.m. ET
Some line movement towards Marquette is the early story in this game, as we do have a pretty significant strength of schedule gap between the two teams. Marquette has played the stiffer competition to this point and we’ve seen a lot of SOS-based line moves over the last couple of weeks in the CBB world.
I wrote up the Big East in our College Basketball Betting Guide prior to the season and I wasn’t enamored with Marquette’s roster and the talent that Shaka Smart brought in to replace Kam Jones and David Joplin. Maybe it has been the schedule, but the Golden Eagles are 263rd in eFG% offense, 225th in 2P%, and 280th in 3P% per Torvik. They’re still forcing a lot of turnovers and can rely on those extra possessions to aid their inefficient shooting numbers, but still. This is not a good offensive team.
I wouldn’t say that Georgetown is a good offensive team either and they’ve actually been shooting worse from 3 than Marquette, but they are one of the best teams in the nation at protecting the rim, even without Vincent Iwuchukwu, who is recovering from a medical procedure he had last month. His absence has allowed Julius Halaifonua to really emerge as a legitimate two-way player.
But, the biggest thing to me here is that Georgetown has a 12.5% TO%. I don’t think Marquette’s offense is efficient enough for a game where they won’t force as many takeaways and may lose the battle on the glass to cover 5.5 in this one. They’ve played three straight games with under a point per possession and, while Wisconsin and Purdue are well above Georgetown’s level, Valparaiso sure isn’t.
Pick: Georgetown +5.5 (-115)
Seattle Redhawks (-2.5, 142.5) at UC Davis Aggies
9 p.m. ET
The Redhawks have flown down the coast to take on UC Davis, as the Aggies look to bounce back from getting pummeled by Oregon last time out. Money has hit the board on them here, as Seattle’s strength of schedule is among the worst in the nation. That being said, they did go to Stanford and win by eight points and played right with a quality UC Santa Barbara team in a neutral setting in a back-to-back.
If the Redhawks do have a legitimate offense this season, they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with in their first season as a West Coast Conference member. Chris Victor’s team is usually solid on the defensive side, but this year’s Seattle team is 10th in the nation in eFG% offense, including fifth in 3P%.
Is it sustainable? I don’t know. The Redhawks do have really good size and have gotten some excellent shooting from holdover PG Brayden Maldonado. Gonzaga transfer Jun Seok Yoo has taken advantage of his increased playing time and has an eFG% of 59.6%. Maleek Arrington seems to be settling in better in Year 2 after transferring in from Idaho State. Seattle has very little depth, though, so they’re going to need to stay very healthy.
Despite weak schedules in the WAC, Victor’s teams have ranked in the top 85 in adjusted defensive efficiency in each of his four full seasons and this one is trending that way as well. They’re adept at forcing turnovers and are a strong defensive rebounding team. UC Davis is horrible on the offensive glass and bad at taking care of the ball with a 20.2% TO%. This year’s Seattle team hasn’t been as skilled on the glass, which could change, but they are still getting high-percentage looks at the rim.
I understand the reservations about the Redhawks – and I have them too – but this is a good matchup for them and a chance to sustain what they’ve been doing thus far.
Pick: Seattle -2.5 (-115)
