College Basketball Bets
While everyone is buzzing about the College Football Playoff rankings and the upcoming week of championship games, we have a nice night of college basketball on tap. There are 69 games for what should be a nice Wednesday and there are a lot of nice matchups with the continuation of the ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge and conference games in the Big Ten, Horizon, MAAC, and Southland.
A nice night indeed, but let’s not forget about the Big Sky-Summit Challenge, as those teams in the Plains and in the mountains square off in their own clash of conferences. Hopefully we’ll have some nice winners on tonight’s card as well.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Georgia Southern Eagles (-2.5, 145.5)
7 p.m. ET
Conference USA vs. Sun Belt here, as the Bulldogs head from Ruston to Statesboro to take on Georgia Southern. These two teams go about their business in very different ways and it could create a high-variance outcome and a game where my opinion is wildly wrong. That’s because Georgia Southern is big on shooting 3s and Louisiana Tech would rather shoot anything else.
But the Bulldogs are the far more efficient team when it comes to getting to the rim. Louisiana Tech only has a 54.1% FG%, but over half of their shots against D-I opponents have come at the tin. They have to see some positive regression in that department, especially against a Georgia Southern team allowing a 43.3% shot share on Close Twos and a 59.2% FG%. GASo’s shot share against ranks 290th in the nation.
Furthermore, when the Eagles do get to the rim, they finish at one of the worst rates in the country, ranking 336th at 50.5%. So, Georgia Southern has been even worse than an underperforming Louisiana Tech team in that department.
Georgia Southern has taken a 3-pointer on 47% of their shots, shooting just 32.8%. That’s still much better than Louisiana Tech at 22.2%, but the Bulldogs are 24th in the nation in 3P% defense. They’re also a far better rebounding team on both ends, so we could see second-chance opportunities for the visitors and a lot of one-and-dones for the hosts.
This is a pace war game, too, as Louisiana Tech plays at one of the 15 slowest tempos in the country and Georgia Southern plays at a top-25 tempo. Louisiana Tech suffocating this game with their rebounding advantages and their style of play will force Georgia Southern to make a high rate of those contested 3s against a defense that ranks 35th in eFG%.
Finally, Louisiana Tech does get to the rim a lot and that should, theoretically, help draw fouls. Somehow, they are only 327th in the nation in FT Rate, but that will improve if they keep getting inside. Georgia Southern is not deep on the interior. Senior center, 6-foot-9 Andres Burney didn’t play last game and 6-foot-7 Nakavieon White had four fouls in just 13 minutes against Houston Christian, a team that also gets to the rim at a high rate. White has already fouled out of two games this season and has had four fouls in three other games.
If the Bulldogs are aggressive on the window and with getting to the rim, they should win this game as a short pup.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +2.5 (-110)
Hofstra Pride at Columbia Lions (-1.5, 143.5)
7 p.m. ET
Hofstra calls its student section “The Lion’s Den”. Well, the Pride hit the streets for a short trek to Manhattan to take on Columbia. The Lions are off to a strong 7-1 start under first-year head coach Kevin Hovde, though there are some major questions about the schedule to this point and a game against Hofstra might help answer them.
Outside of the 27-point loss to UConn, Columbia has played a lot of teams ranked in the high 200s and 300s by Torvik, but Hofstra is a borderline top-150 team in the rankings, making this a Quadrant 3 game for the Ivy Leaguers. It will be their second non-Q4 game of the season, which is probably part of the reason why we’ve seen some line movement towards the visitors here.
Hofstra is usually a reliable program in the CAA under Speedy Claxton and this year’s squad has taken care of business against lesser foes and lost to better teams in UCF, Iona, and Temple. In that respect, it’s a good test for both teams. It’s certainly a better test for Hofstra’s defense, which has held La Salle, Merrimack, and Penn to .873, .865, and .898 points per possession over the last three games.
Those teams, though, rank 294th, 340th, and 190th in eFG% offense so far this season. Columbia’s weak schedule absolutely plays a part here, but the Lions are 29th in eFG% this season. They’re fifth in the nation in 3P%. I do think that these numbers will regress as we go forward, but Hovde, a former assistant under Todd Golden and Chris Mooney, absolutely knows how to run an offense.
As you would expect, Columbia has a high Rim & 3 Rate, while Hofstra takes a lot of mid-range jumpers. They usually perform well on those, but Hofstra’s Close Two shot share is over 12% lower than Columbia’s.
I think the Lions have the better shot selection here and win the battle for local pride over the Pride. Hofstra does have strong defensive numbers, but I do think this is a step up in class for their defense and they’ve allowed 81 points in all three of their losses against the better offenses they’ve faced.
Pick: Columbia -1.5 (-118)
Pacific Tigers (-6.5, 132.5) at Air Force Falcons
9 p.m. ET
Pacific heads to Colorado Springs to take on Air Force in a one-off road trip to the Rockies before facing Cal over the weekend. Since giving up 1.261 PPP to Florida Atlantic in Boca Raton, Dave Smart’s team has committed to playing much smarter defense. The Tigers have allowed .868, .873, and .763 PPP over their last three games, holding opponents to 58, 53, and 54 points.
Air Force has a hard enough time scoring without facing a defense that ranks in the top 40 in 2P%, 3P%, and top 30 in eFG%. The Falcons just don’t run many good offensive sets under head coach Joe Scott. Last year’s team was 314th in adjusted offensive efficiency and this one is trending worse because of a weak schedule and a 21.7% TO%. The Falcons play at a glacial pace and run a matchup zone on defense, so their games are not aesthetically pleasing.
They’re also shooting under 65% on free throws, so they can’t even score at the charity stripe with regularity. Pacific is much better in that area and that could help them cover given the range where this line sits, but I’m looking at the Under here. The Tigers don’t force a lot of takeaways, which could allow the Falcons to take better care of the ball and use up a lot of the shot clock before missing and settling back into their defensive zone.
Per CBB Analytics, Pacific ranks in the 7th percentile in percentage of points coming on fast breaks and Air Force ranks in the 43rd percentile. The Tigers are also just in the 21st percentile in points off of turnovers per game. Given that Air Force doesn’t take care of the ball, that is a tough stat to see for the Tigers. This game, like most that Air Force plays, will probably be a real slog.
Pick: Under 132.5 (-105)
