College Basketball Bets
The final college basketball card of 2025 is upon us, as we have 46 games and a lot of them during the day to finish out the year. That makes it tough for me, as I try to give as much lead time as possible and only six of today’s games start at 5 p.m. ET or later. I’ve stretched it out to 4 p.m. ET to add in nine more games for consideration.
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For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
UMKC Roos at Denver Pioneers (-10.5, 158.5)
4 p.m. ET
Summit League play begins for first-year head coach Tim Bergstraser in this one, as his Pioneers host the Roos. Both of these teams have really challenged themselves to this point, as KenPom has Denver with the 29th-ranked schedule overall, 27th by opposing offense, and 45th by opposing defense, while UMKC is 48th, 34th, and 107th, respectively.
So, it is a step down for both teams, but Denver is clearly the better of the two squads and I have a sneaking suspicion that Bergstraser placed a lot of emphasis on being prepared for the Summit League schedule. In a one-bid league, all that really matters is conference play. This is a Pioneers team that hasn’t had a winning conference record since 2018 and only one since 2014.
Defensively, Denver struggles a lot. But, UMKC is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation. Even with their metrics adjusted for the strong schedule that they’ve played so far, the Roos are 354th in the nation in offensive efficiency. They are 348th in eFG%. Meanwhile, even against a pretty good schedule, Denver is a top-100 team in adjusted offensive efficiency. They turn the ball over way less than UMKC and shoot the 3 at a much higher clip. The Pioneers are +9.3% in 3P% differential in this game.
Furthermore, Denver is a 75.9% team from the free throw line. They should have the rebounding edge here and I wouldn’t be surprised if a depth-shy Roos team gets into some foul trouble given the matchup. If that’s the case, playing in elevation adds another degree of difficulty.
Pick: Denver -10.5 (-115)
Drexel Dragons at UNC Wilmington Seahawks (-12.5, 138.5)
7 p.m. ET
Game 2 of the CAA schedule for Drexel and UNC Wilmington is tonight in one of our few late tip-offs. The Dragons opened conference play with a loss to Charleston and traveled up the coast for this one against the Seahawks, who beat NC A&T in their lid lifter.
This one’s a pretty simple handicap. Both teams have played terrible schedules thus far, so we don’t totally know what’s feel and what’s not with their metrics. That’s especially true for UNCW, who is a top-50 team by eFG% defense, as opponents are only shooting 46.6% on 2s and 30.8% on 3s. That is decidedly better than what Drexel has done against their similarly-poor schedule, so the Dragons might just be a bad team.
In this matchup, though, we have two very slow-paced teams. Drexel is 308th in adjusted tempo and UNCW is 337th according to Torvik. The one area where Drexel has been pretty good is shooting 3s, as they’ve shot 35.8% with a 41.4% 3P Rate. The Seahawks push teams away from the rim and into a lot of 3-pointers, as their 3P Rate ranks 298th in the nation at 44.1%. Meanwhile, Drexel’s 33.1% 3P Rate is 23rd.
As long as Drexel can knock down a few shots in a game played at a glacial pace, they should be able to keep this one within 12.5. One area where I do think Drexel could make some hay is on the glass. So far, the Seahawks have dominated on the glass, but the Dragons grade pretty well there and this may be a spot where the weak schedule for UNCW has inflated their perception on that front.
Pick: Drexel +12.5 (-115)
