College Basketball Bets
More than 100 teams take the floor tonight with 59 games spread across the country on the college basketball card. This is the final night before the NBA returns from the All-Star Break, so it will be another chance for hoops heads to get their fill of the college game on the major networks before The Association steals some of the eyes. It should be another solid night of games, as we have quite a few marquee matchups, but also a lot of mid-major and low-major games to consider.
It should be noted that teams are starting to get eliminated from conference tournament contention and there could be some good betting angles associated with that. Conferences that don’t allow all of their teams to qualify are going to have some teams that have absolutely nothing to play for as we move forward and so those teams may be looking ahead to the offseason and those players may be looking ahead to where they’re going to transfer to next.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at Furman Paladins (-1.5, 140.5)
6:30 p.m. ET
A dinnertime SoCon matchup in Greenville brings together East Tennessee State and Furman, as the teams square off for the second time this season. ETSU won the first game 75-71 at home, but it required overtime and there are some very interesting box score elements worth looking deeper into as we head into this one.
First, let’s start here – Furman had 21 turnovers in a game played to 73 possessions. Not only is that a very low rate of possessions for an OT game, but it is obviously a terrible number. ETSU only had nine turnovers. The Buccaneers had 13 steals compared to one for Furman. And, again, the Bucs needed overtime to squeak out a four-point win in a game where they were +10 at the free throw line in makes and +12 in attempts.
Freshman Alex Wilkins was responsible for 11 of those Furman turnovers, as he had a higher Usage Rate in the absence of Asa Thomas, who averages 13.6 PPG for the Paladins. That was the last game that Thomas missed and Wilkins’ Usage Rate has been down a bit since. A good head coach like Bob Richey should make adjustments here and probably keep the ball out of Wilkins’ hands a little bit more.
Furman is actually No. 1 in the conference in eFG% defense and first in adjusted defensive efficiency, even though they have a much lower TO% than ETSU, who is second in adjusted defensive efficiency. Furman also had nine dunks in the first game compared to just one for ETSU. The Paladins were 18-of-22 at the rim and are No. 1 in the SoCon in both 2P% offense and defense.
As long as they take even slightly better care of the ball here, they should get revenge at home and pick up the win and cover.
Pick: Furman -1.5
James Madison Dukes (-1.5, 141.5) at Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
7 p.m. ET
We’ve got a modest flipped favorite situation in Conway, as most overnight markets had Coastal Carolina as a slight favorite over James Madison. As influential bettors updated their models and got the day underway, James Madison was the 1.5-point favorite across the board.
A big reason why is because Justin McBride looks healthy. McBride has scored 43 points over the last two games, including a very impressive win over App State last time out. McBride missed the games against Southern Miss and Louisiana, two really bad losses for the Dukes, but McBride has averaged 17 and 6 and he’s a hard guy to replace.
The Dukes have played the second-toughest strength of schedule in conference play thus far per Torvik, while Coastal Carolina has played the 11th-ranked SOS out of 14 teams. This is a James Madison team that is second in Sun Belt play in eFG% offense and defense, while Coastal Carolina is 11th on offense and third on defense. The Chanticleers have been a solid defensive unit for second-year head coach Justin Gray, but they have a lot of offensive issues. They are shooting just 53.4% on Close Twos and have gotten increasingly reliant on 3-point shots as conference play has transpired.
They’ve scored well under a point per possession in three of their last four games and inflated their numbers a bit after a 1-4 start to Sun Belt play by really stepping down in class from a competition standpoint. This is a Chanticleers team with a very low TO% and a lot of inefficient shooters, so they’re not getting extra possessions to increase their offensive margin for error. To me, that’s a problem against James Madison as a much better shot-making team.
Pick: James Madison -1.5
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs (-2.5, 133.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
The wrong team looks to be favored in Ruston tonight, as Louisiana Tech looks to split the regular season series with Jacksonville State. The Gamecocks only won the first game by four points back on Jan. 17, but they led by 16 with five minutes to play and only scored four points the rest of the way. It was a blowout throughout, as Jacksonville State led by 10 or more for a five-minute stretch of the first half and most of the second half, but the final score didn’t really illustrate the game flow properly.
Jacksonville State is the No. 1 team in both adjusted defensive efficiency and eFG% defense in Conference USA this season. They have the best 3P% defense and are also the best team in the conference at getting to the free throw line, so they have a lot of advantages most nights. They especially have big advantages against the Bulldogs, who are the worst 3P% offense and defense in C-USA play, and are at a major disadvantage at the free throw line.
Jacksonville State is shooting nearly 72% in conference play at the stripe, while Louisiana Tech is shooting barely over 65%. Expect the Gamecocks, who are very well-coached by veteran Ray Harper, to come out strong here after losing both home games last week against UTEP and New Mexico State.
Pick: Jacksonville State +2.5
