College Basketball Bets
A nice, round number on the slate today, as we have 60 games for the Wednesday schedule. Handicapping 120 teams is pretty daunting, and that’s what I’ll do, but that’s not what you have to do. Conference specialization is a topic that I’ve talked about a lot in the past and a little bit in the present. It’s part of the reason why I’ve been listing all of the conferences in play in the intro each day. If you can pick up the cadence of when teams play, you can isolate a few conferences that play each day and dig deep into those teams.
For today, we’ve got a ton of them, as the Big 12, SEC, ACC, Mountain West, Big East, Big Ten, A-10, Conference USA, American, Big South, West Coast, Missouri Valley, West Coast, Summit League, SoCon, MAAC, and Patriot League are all represented. That’s a lot, so pick out a couple from the list and try to know all the ins and outs of those teams to get an edge over the books.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Southern Miss Golden Eagles at Troy Trojans (-8.5, 146.5)
7 p.m. ET
We head to the Fun Belt for this matchup between Southern Miss and Troy. The Golden Eagles have an impressive record, but looks can be deceiving at this time of the season. They are 11-7 on the season and off to a 5-1 start in conference play, but they’ve played Louisiana twice and Louisiana Monroe twice, two of the 40 worst teams in the nation.
If we take away the Quadrant 4 games and the games against lower-division opponents, Southern Miss is 1-6. Tonight’s road tilt at Troy qualifies as a Quadrant 2 game, so it’s a pretty big step up in class from the teams that the Golden Eagles have beaten.
There are several reasons why I like Troy. The first is their head coach Scott Cross. This is a team with an 89% Rim & 3 Rate. They love to attack the basket and shoot 3s, as they rank 76th in 3P Rate in games against Q3 or better opponents. Meanwhile, Southern Miss has a 29.1% 3P Rate in those games and a 29.3% success rate on triple tries. This is not a good distance shooting team and not a team that likes to take a lot of 3s. About 30% of their shots this season are mid-range jumpers. You can get away with that against inferior teams, but Troy is not an inferior team.
Not only should Troy have the higher shot volume from 3, but they should have the higher shot volume overall. In games against Q3 or better opponents, Troy has an 18.2% TO% on defense, while Southern Miss has a 14.4% TO%. The recipes for winning a game by margin are there. Troy should have more possessions, more shot volume, and could significantly outscore Southern Miss from 3.
Pick: Troy -8.5 (-118)
Nevada Wolf Pack at Utah State Aggies (-13.5, 150.5)
10 p.m. ET
There are some damn good teams in the Mountain West this season. Utah State is absolutely one of them, as the Aggies rank 26th for Torvik and 21st for both KenPom and Haslametrics. Nevada is a team that could present some challenges, though.
The Wolf Pack rank seventh in the nation in TO% on offense and 293rd in adjusted tempo. They have a really good chance to slow this game down a bit. Utah State’s best defensive attribute is a 22.4% TO% on defense, but Nevada has protected the basketball really well. Also, Utah State has benefited from a 32.3% 3P% against with a 44.2% 3P Rate against. Nevada is shooting better than 37% from 3. They don’t take a lot of them, but may be forced into it tonight.
If that’s the case, I could see Nevada holding up offensively here, even though they’ve had major issues at the rim. Defensively, Nevada has been stout in the paint, holding opponents to a 53.6% FG% on Close Twos as defined by Torvik. Utah State is a high Rim & 3 Rate team and likes to get to the tin. They’re also a terrific offensive rebounding team, but, again, Nevada is solid enough there to hold their own.
Nevada has consistently put up strong offensive numbers against the 38th-ranked schedule per Torvik. Getting a big head start with the Wolf Pack should be helpful tonight.
Pick: Nevada +13.5 (-102)
