College Basketball Bets
The Wednesday college basketball card features a whole lot of variety. The Tuesday card did as well, but we had some really big games with some prime placement on the major cable networks. Today, we have less of that, but FS1 has a trio of quality contests, including the San Diego State vs. Grand Canyon game I previewed here.
Tonight, we’ve got the Mountain West, SEC, Big 12, ACC, Big Ten, American, Big East, Conference USA, Missouri Valley, A-10, Southland, Patriot, Sun Belt, Big South, Horizon, West Coast, SoCon, WAC, West Coast, Summit, and A-Sun all on the floor. If you can’t find bets or interesting games tonight, then you aren’t trying hard enough, as we’ve got something for everyone on the schedule across 54 games.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Kennesaw State Owls at Sam Houston State Bearkats (-5.5, 163.5)
7:30 p.m. ET
This Conference USA clash caught my eye when breaking down the card, as we have seen a line move towards the Sam Houston State side. Part of that is probably because Kennesaw State’s leading scorer, Simeon Cottle, is suspended indefinitely because he was mentioned in last week’s point-shaving scandal. He’s averaged 20.2 PPG and is a 34.5% shooter on 3s, so he’s a huge loss. He was also the team’s leading assist man with 3.8 per game.
The Owls rallied together for an 81-65 win over Western Kentucky, as RJ Johnson had 31 points on a 30.7% Usage Rate. It’s great for somebody to step up, but Johnson is shooting 48.7% on 2s this season and just 53.2% on Close Twos. He is shooting nearly 44% from 3, but he’s likely to become an even less efficient player the more he’s used and the more he’s focused on by the opposing defense.
Kennesaw State enters this game 10th in eFG% offense in four C-USA games thus far, shooting just 32.4% on 3s, which drops to 29% when they play a road conference game. There’s also a big strength of schedule gap between these teams, as Kennesaw State played the 345th-ranked SOS in non-conference games per Torvik and has played the 273rd-ranked schedule overall. Sam Houston State is 178th and 133rd, respectively, as they’ve played a tougher conference slate to this point.
In an up-tempo game like this one projects to be, the fact that Sam Houston State is at home and is already the far better 3P% team makes a big difference to me. Also, Kennesaw State’s 46th-ranked eFG% defense and 18th-ranked 2P% defense have a lot to do with playing the 254th-ranked slate of opposing offenses per KenPom.
Pick: Sam Houston State -5.5
UTSA Roadrunners at North Texas Mean Green (-16.5, 138.5)
8 p.m. ET
Taking an ugly dog in a low-possession game didn’t work out last night with Air Force against Colorado State, but I’m back to take another swing here with UTSA. The Roadrunners are in the midst of a horrible season. Things were probably supposed to improve during Austin Claunch’s second year, but they’ve gone in the opposite direction. That being said, injuries have been a factor and so has a really young roster, led by freshmen Dorian Hayes and Kaidon Rayfield, the two best incomers Claunch has secured in his head coaching tenure, including a stint at Nicholls State.
Defensively, this team is a debacle. Offensively, they’ve shown some signs the last two games with 1.185 and .953 points per possession against Rice and Memphis. Senior LJ Brown played a season-high 24 minutes in the blowout loss to Memphis and had 14 points in just his sixth game of the season. This is a team shooting just 48% on Close Twos, so there has to be some positive regression moving forward.
North Texas is a very good defensive team under Daniyal Robinson, but they’re not a good offensive team. This group is 324th in eFG% on offense, while sitting 314th in 3P% and 307th in 2P%. Not surprisingly, with a slow tempo, a bad offense, and a good defense, nine of the Mean Green’s 18 games have been decided by six or fewer points. Their games are full of turnovers both ways and they foul a lot. It’s hard to blow teams out like that, especially because they force those takeaways, but rank in the 16th percentile in Offensive Rating, despite having an 88th percentile percentage of fast break points per CBB Analytics.
So, basically, when they aren’t taking the ball away, they are not scoring in the halfcourt offense. UTSA is in the 78th percentile in percentage of points on fast breaks and they typically don’t even force that many turnovers.
There’s a huge strength of schedule gap between these two teams as well and I don’t think the metrics point towards a huge blowout win for UNT.
Pick: UTSA +16.5
Utah Tech Trailblazers at Cal Baptist Lancers (-8.5, 143.5)
10 p.m. ET
This is a rematch of a game from back on Jan. 8. Cal Baptist went on the road and won 84-72 over the Trailblazers, nearly doubling them up in offensive rebounds 17-9 and had a +6 edge at the free throw line. I see no reason to believe those two things go differently in this game, but I do think we could see a better offensive performance from the Lancers.
Cal Baptist was 19-of-33 on Close Twos in the first meeting, while Utah Tech was 16-of-26. The Trailblazers have allowed a 46.9% shot share on Close Twos this season and a 61.6% FG% on those shot attempts. That is the 14th-highest shot share on Close Twos in the nation and Cal Baptist is fourth in the nation in shot share on Close Twos at 50.6%. However, the Lancers are 341st in FG%. But, they should get their chances here and get to the rim a lot.
Add in that the Lancers should dominate this game on the glass with a top-five ORB% and a top-25 DRB%. Utah Tech is nowhere near that, sitting 255th on offense and 310th on defense. Cal Baptist gets to the free throw line more as well. Neither team allows a lot of 3-point shots and neither team shoots them well, both sitting at 31.3%.
The difference is that Cal Baptist is more adept at getting inside and can get those second chances, while Utah Tech takes a lot more 3s and has more one-and-done possessions. Cal Baptist should win by the same amount or more in the rematch now playing at home.
Pick: Cal Baptist -8.5
