College Basketball Bets
We’ve got a lot of college hoops on Wednesday, with 54 games and 108 teams on the floor. Things are slowly returning to normal post-winter storm, so teams are getting back on their schedules a little bit. Today’s card has a lot of different conferences, so it’s a good day for conference specialization, in that you can pick games from certain leagues and focus heavily on those.
It’s hard to do the entire card, but it is doable with all of the good resources linked below, including Greg and Tyler’s articles. There is lots of data out there and we can use it to connect the dots and find the best bets each and every day. That’s the hope for today.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Charlotte 49ers at Temple Owls (-4.5, 140.5)
7 p.m. ET
We head to the American Conference to start things off with a matchup between Charlotte and Temple. We have a recent data point for these two teams, as Temple won 76-73 on the road in a game played to 68 possessions back on Dec. 30. The 68 possessions is an important part of this handicap because we have seen Charlotte playing at a quicker tempo in conference play.
When Aaron Fearne took over for Tony Bennett disciple Ron Sanchez, the 49ers kept playing slow, but their adjusted tempo in American play this season is 66 possessions. That’s quite a bit higher than the 63.4 possessions with their season-long adjusted tempo. I think Fearne likes his offense a lot more this season and has been willing to move a little bit quicker. After all, Charlotte is shooting 36.3% from 3 for the season and 52.8% on 2s with a top-90 eFG% on offense. Last season’s team was 294th in eFG%, so that was a good reason to move slowly.
In conference play, the 49ers are jarring 37% of their triple tries and have paired that with a 57.5% 2P% to sit second in the conference in eFG% offense. Temple’s numbers have actually gone the other way in conference play, with a noticeable drop in 3P% and 2P%. The Owls have also played the 13th-ranked conference schedule in the 13-team conference per Torvik.
For some reason, though, they shot 50% on 3s against Charlotte in the first meeting and were also 20-of-39 on 2s, both well above their conference pace of 32.1% from 3 and 46.1% on 2s. Coming into the season, I didn’t project Temple as a good defensive team in our College Basketball Betting Guide when I wrote up the teams in the American. I did feel that they’d be decent offensively. It’s been the opposite.
But, I see regression coming for the Owls defense. Conference foes are only shooting 25.2% from 3 against them, an unsustainable number in my opinion. Temple is also limited in the frontcourt when it comes to height, as 6-foot-10 Jamai Felt is doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the glass. Guard Masiah Gilyard has been excellent on the glass, but he’s a poor shooter and that has limited his playing time.
Despite Temple’s road win in Charlotte, I think the 49ers get revenge tonight. I like them getting a head start here.
Pick: Charlotte +4.5
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at FIU Panthers (-4.5, 149.5)
7 p.m. ET
A Conference USA clash in Miami here between Jacksonville State and FIU. The Gamecocks won the first meeting 71-64 at home back on Jan. 7. They doubled up the Panthers in offensive rebounds and made 3-pointers, which were two main factors in the win and two areas where I think they can find success in this one tonight.
In that game, Jacksonville State had a Rim & 3 Rate of 91.8%, as they only took four mid-range jumpers. FIU, meanwhile, took 13. While the Panthers were 6-of-13 on those shots, Jacksonville State had more rim attempts, more 3-point attempts, and managed 1.096 points per possession despite turning the ball over 16 times in 65 possessions. I fully expect the Gamecocks to come up short in the turnover battle again tonight, but they’re a much better free throw shooting team and have much better 3-point numbers to offset that.
Jacksonville State is shooting 40.8% from 3 in C-USA play and has allowed opponents to shoot just 33%. FIU doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s, but opponents bomb away on them with a 45.2% 3P Rate against. There are just a lot of areas where Jacksonville State either has advantages or should match up well and 4.5 feels like too many points here in a rematch from a game three weeks ago where the Gamecocks showed well.
Pick: Jacksonville State +4.5
Marshall Thundering Herd (-3.5, 148.5) at Texas State Bobcats
8 p.m. ET
Marshall heads from the chill and gloom of Huntington, WV to San Marcos, TX for this one, as the Thundering Herd play their first roadie in 18 days. Winter in the Rust Belt sucks. It’s cold. It’s cloudy. All the trees and bare. It’s just gray and brown and seasonal affective disorder is a real thing. This is a pretty big two-game road trip with Arkansas State on deck. The rest of the schedule is very tolerable in the Sun Belt for Marshall, so I think they’ll embrace the road here.
Texas State is back at home after a couple of road losses, including a butt-kicking at the hands of James Madison last Saturday, a JMU team that lost to Marshall the previous Saturday. Common opponents shed a little light, but this matchup looks lopsided to me.
Texas State has the higher TO% at 19.%. While the Bobcats are way better about getting to the rim, their 3P Rate is 20.8% behind Marshall’s. The Herd take a 3 on 45.8% of their shot attempts and they’re good at it, shooting 37.3%. Texas State takes a 3 on 25% of their shots, the lowest in the nation. And they’re only shooting 30.2% on them.
Marshall’s a good defensive team, too. They are in the top 60 in eFG% defense and the top 65 in eFG% offense. Texas State is in the 200s in each. Texas State has also played one of the worst schedules in the country. I’ll take my chances on Marshall with all of those factors.
Pick: Marshall -3.5
