College Basketball Bets
Underdogs had a huge night in the NIT, going 7-1 ATS in a setting where motivation is a really big deal. We’ll see if they have similar success with another 10-game slate, as eight more NIT matchups plus two NCAA Tournament games are on the docket. One of the teams I wrote about as a futures option in my NIT preview plays for the first time tonight, while the other two were both victorious in their first-round games.
We’ve got previews for Lehigh vs. Prairie View A&M and SMU vs. Miami OH in the First Four round and previews for all of the first-round games in our NCAA Tournament Betting Hub.
Get your hands on the 2026 March Mania Betting Guide for $19.99 or as part of your VSiN Pro subscription.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Illinois State Redbirds (-5.5, 153.5)
8 p.m. ET
Much like yesterday, we’ve seen NIT totals get bet up across the board, as bettors are expecting defense to go out the window. Well, those moves weren’t overly successful yesterday, so maybe we’ve seen a little more hesitance with some games in the market today. This is one of them, as Kent State travels to Carbondale to face Illinois State.
This is one where I agree with the line move and expect this game to go Over the total. Let’s start with Illinois State, a team that played 2-3 possessions faster on a per-game basis in non-conference play than in conference play. The Missouri Valley Conference is full of slow-paced teams that have no interest getting up and down the floor. Overall, Illinois State checks in 217th in adjusted tempo per Torvik and 221st per KenPom. If we eliminate MVC action, the Redbirds’ adjusted tempo in non-conference was 69 possessions. While that still ranked 212, they were willing to play faster and I think they’ll be willing to do that with Kent State tonight.
Rob Senderoff’s crew ranks in the top 30 in adjusted tempo. They’ll gladly run. They shoot a 3 on 45% of their shot attempts and were one of the better teams in offensive rebounding in the MAC and in the nation. They also had a negative eFG% over the course of their full body of work, allowing opponents to shoot nearly 35% from 3. Illinois State likes to fire from 3 and shot 35.4% from 3, along with being a top-75 team in 2P%.
With what should be a heightened tempo here and not a ton of regard for defense with two teams willing to blast away from 3, we should see a high-scoring affair here.
Pick: Over 153.5
Dayton Flyers (-1.5, 141.5) at Bradley Braves
9 p.m. ET
This has to be a brutal spot for Dayton. They lost in the A-10 Championship Game against hated rival VCU on Sunday and had to go on the road for this NIT game because the NCAA Tournament is using their home arena. The Flyers are the higher-seeded team and were supposed to be at home, but they’re in Peoria, IL instead.
I find Bradley to be an extremely well-coached team under Brian Wardle. This is the type of team that will always play noticeably better at home because of their shot selection. The Braves were 13-2 SU on their home floor, including a 9-1 record in MVC play, where they beat Northern Iowa and Belmont.
Dayton is playing a fourth game in six days here and the sting of missing out on the Big Dance yet again has to be tough. They’ve only made the NCAA Tourney once under current head coach Anthony Grant, though COVID took away what may very well have been a No. 1 seed in the field.
It is also Spring Break at UD. Had a trip to the NCAA Tournament been in the cards, playing basketball would have been very enticing. Right now, I don’t think the Flyers are eager to spend their week off of school in Peoria, IL. Just a guess.
Pick: Bradley +1.5
