College Basketball Bets
Back in my day, we still referred to what’s happening now as tournaments, but these MTEs – multi-team events – sure have been a lot of fun and we’ve gotten some really good data points. There are 64 games on Drinksgiving, the colloquial term for the day before Thanksgiving, said to be the biggest drinking day of the year since people return home and connect with old friends and family.
I assume these 128 teams and the other 10 Division I schools playing lower-division competition will not be partaking, but I guess you never know, especially those in beachside destinations. As has been the case all week, we’ve got hoops all day and all night, but my focus is on the later games to give readers some lead time. It may cut down on the card, but it’s only fair.
As a heads up, there will be no article on Thursday, but it will return on Friday. Happy Thanksgiving to one and all and we’re very thankful for your support of VSiN!
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data. This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Kennesaw State Owls at Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (-2.5, 159.5)
7 p.m. ET
A little bit of Kennesaw State money has hit the board today, likely because Florida Gulf Coast is playing a third game in three days after playing overtime yesterday, but Kennesaw State played an overtime game on Monday in this MTE and then a game that they lost 91-83 with 77 possessions last night.
The Owls aren’t a very good defensive team. They opened the season with Florida A&M sandwiched between two lower-division opponents. In three games against D-I foes since, the Owls have allowed 1.355, 1.042, and 1.175 points per possession. Florida Gulf Coast is playing at home in this MTE, so it isn’t a big surprise that they are 15-of-38 from 3. They were just 15-of-40 on 2s in the win over Rice yesterday, an outlier shooting performance for Patrick Chambers’ team.
That also means that FGCU has been much more comfortable in their usual digs and I think that could help them over the hump playing this third game in three days. Like I said, Kennesaw State is doing the exact same thing, just that their OT game was a day earlier. From a shot selection standpoint, the Owls like to get to the rim more than the Eagles, who do take too many mid-range jumpers for my liking. However, Kennesaw State has allowed a 49% shot share on Close Twos, so the Eagles should take advantage of that here.
FGCU is also shooting 5.4% better from 3 on the season. The Owls have a higher reliance on the 3-point shot, which could be tough with tired legs here. FGCU has also been a menace on the glass so far in their seven Division I games. The Eagles also have a lower TO%, including a game against Illinois where they only turned the ball over one time. They also only had 16 shot attempts at the rim to lower their shot share in that department, but they’ve been better about it against comparable or lesser competition.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast -2.5 (-118)
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (-2.5, 153.5)
8 p.m. ET
A brutal scheduling spot for SEMO State has led to a line move here, as the Redhawks opened slight favorites, but are now underdogs in Flagstaff. I talked about the Redhawks yesterday and loved them against Cal Poly. It was arguably my favorite pick of the season so far and it came through with ease, Brad Korn’s team won by 16.
Not only did they win by 16, but of Cal Poly’s 68 points, only 37 of them were on made shots, as they went 31-of-37 at the free throw line. They were +16 in FT makes and +20 in attempts and the Redhawks still beat them by 16. I talked about how Korn getting eyes on Cal Poly the night before was a big advantage to him as the better coach. It worked out.
I’m sure Korn got eyes on Northern Arizona on Monday when they played Cal Poly and won by 6. Korn is the better coach in this matchup, too, so even though his team might be a little fatigued with the back-to-back in extreme elevation, he was able to balance the minutes well because SEMO State took over in the second half and led by 18 with 10 minutes left.
Northern Arizona might have the chance to exploit SEMO State on the inside, but they haven’t converted well in there, shooting just 44.3% on Close Twos. They have shot over 37% from 3, but I would expect that number to decrease as we go along. During Shane Burcar’s tenure, they’ve shot 35% or better in three of his six seasons, but never close to what they’re doing now. Also, this is a team that doesn’t force many turnovers and SEMO State should have the possession advantage here as a result.
I talked about this yesterday as well that SEMO State had played Saint Louis, Missouri, St. Thomas, and Iowa prior to facing Cal Poly. Those are four very efficient offensive teams. Cal Poly had .909 PPP and a lot of that was at the free throw line. In other words, I would expect the Redhawks’ defensive numbers to improve quickly with the hard part of their schedule out of the way.
Simply, they’re the better team to me and this spot, while tricky, isn’t enough to close the gap.
Pick: Southeast Missouri State +2.5 (-108)
Baylor Bears (-1.5, 149.5) vs. San Diego State Aztecs
10:30 p.m. ET
A late game with minimal meaning in the Players Era Festival out here in Las Vegas brings Baylor and San Diego State together. These two teams have had two very different days in Sin City, which is how it sometimes goes for visitors. San Diego State lost by 40 to Michigan on Monday before beating Oregon by 17 on Tuesday. Baylor beat Creighton by 7 on Monday and then lost by 15 to St. John’s on Tuesday.
This is not a good spot for Baylor. San Diego State may not always score, but they are always a tough, physical team to play against. They are relentless defensively and while we haven’t seen that yet outside of their games against Long Beach State and Idaho State, it’s coming. Baylor is basically only playing seven guys right now with JJ White out and it’s a big ask of these guys to play a third game in three days in Las Vegas, where there is a little bit of elevation and a lot of distractions.
For San Diego State, a team from the Mountain West that wants to be viewed as a true national powerhouse despite a lesser conference profile and schedule, games like this are going to get their full focus. I don’t know that we get the same out of Baylor here. Thirteen different guys got on the floor for San Diego State yesterday and nine of them played at least 15 minutes.
I also don’t like Baylor’s offense thus far. They are shooting 48.6% on mid-range jumpers, but are taking way too many of them because they can’t get to the rim effectively. So far this season, Baylor has 96 shot attempts on Close Twos and 111 on Far Twos as defined by Torvik. This isn’t a very big Bears team and I’m not sure that they’ll have a great answer for SDSU’s size in this one.
Pick: San Diego State +1.5 (-102)
