College Basketball Picks
We only have 10 Division I vs. Division I games on Wednesday, as 16 D-I programs play against lower-division opponents. We have 43 games tomorrow, so there will be more to choose from, but we’re going to have some of these schedules as we go forward. There will be some huge days and some days where not a lot is going on. Remember that a lot of the mid- and low-majors are racking up miles on planes, trains, and buses to play those paycheck games. We also have TV rights issues working around college football and the NFL. So, things will be all over the map before they really settle in.
Handicapping early-season college basketball is a big challenge because there are so many new faces and moving parts, but it is also a market that provides a ton of opportunity for those who are prepared. That’s one reason why our 2026-27 College Basketball Betting Guide is so valuable. Also a reason why Steve Makinen’s College Basketball Daily Matchup Ratings will be useful.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from Circa Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook (mostly Extra Games) at time of publish.
Southeastern Louisiana at Auburn (-29.5, 150.5) Prediction
8 p.m. ET
Pick: Over 150.5
We’ve seen some movement towards the Auburn side in this one, but haven’t really seen a lot done with the total. With Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton back, it’s hardly surprising to see money hit the Auburn side. That is one of the more experienced and productive backcourts in the SEC and those are the guys expected to drive the bus and lead all of the Auburn transfers.
This is a deeper version of Auburn this season with Owen Freeman and Bukky Oboye as bigs that can return in and out. In usual Auburn fashion, this is a really big team. Steven Pearl actually had the program’s best offensive rebounding group in recent history and I’d expect something similar this season with all the size. I also do think that the Tigers improve defensively as the season goes along, but these early games are about finding offensive chemistry.
Pearl pulled the reins back last season and the team got slower as the campaign went along, in part because of the lack of depth. With that question answered, this version should move faster, much like Bruce’s teams did.
I also think that Southeastern Louisiana will move quicker this season. David Kiefer brought in two point guards via the portal in Tyler Rolison and Logan Suber, who was originally at Lipscomb. The Bisons usually have an efficient offense and it is probably a good thing that he was determined to be a fit for them. Rolison was at Nevada and wasn’t much of a shooter, but he was an excellent facilitator and a plus defender.
Last year’s Lions were awful on offense, shooting just 28.4% from 3 with a 46.7% eFG%. With a revamped roster, my guess is that he envisions something more like his 2021-22 unit that was 93rd in eFG% per Torvik or the 2022-23 group that was 161st. Slowing the pace down hasn’t really worked out all that well. He has to know he can’t contain Auburn, so his best hope is playing more of a track meet and hoping to shoot well from 3.
North Dakota State at Saint Mary’s (-13.5, 148.5) Prediction
10 p.m. ET
Pick: Saint Mary’s -13.5
I picked against the Gaels on Monday and Illinois State did cover twice, once in regulation and once in overtime, which is always terrifying with an underdog. The Redbirds ran out of steam in the second half, as they blew a 10-point lead and ultimately lost the game, despite going 13-of-27 from 3.
The Redbirds did not have an answer on the interior for Saint Mary’s and I don’t expect North Dakota State to have one either. The Gaels were 30-of-51 on 2s and 27-of-36 on Close Two shot attempts per Torvik. Saint Mary’s outscored Illinois State 54-22 at the rim, which was enough to cover getting outscored 39-12 on 3s.
The style of play in the Summit League isn’t conducive to a matchup against Saint Mary’s, so I think the Bison are at a real personnel disadvantage here. Summit League teams take a lot of jump shots and not many of them hit the offensive glass hard. The Summit was 28th in ORB% at 28.1% last season and 29th in 2P% defense at 54.7%. As a result, NDSU, and others, are built for conference play and that does not line up with how the Gaels are built.
Mickey McConnell’s club has more length all over the floor and should also come out and challenge 3s more effectively with a legitimate data point to evaluate. NDSU played the Minnesota-Crookston Golden Eagles and won 90-59. That said, the Golden Eagles were still 17-of-29 on 2s in that game.
I expect a very high-efficiency offensive performance from the Gaels here. If they can get a few stops, that’ll help the cause in a big way.
