College basketball best bets from Matt Youmans

VSiN betting analyst and host of VSiN Tonight, Matt Youmans, shares his top college basketball picks for today, February 24.

Alabama at Kentucky (-2.5)

As illogical as it seems, a team with no fewer than seven NBA prospects recently lost three consecutive home games. John Calipari is coaching a Kentucky team loaded with talent yet too often underachieves, making it a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma.

 

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In reference to the Winston Churchill quote, it could be said the team mirrors Calipari in many ways.

After falling to Florida, Tennessee and Gonzaga at Rupp Arena, the Wildcats hit the road a week ago and handed Auburn its first home loss of the season. The result was no fluke, either, as Kentucky’s 70-59 win was achieved in convincing style against one of the top offensive teams in the nation.

Four days later, the Wildcats were stunned by unranked LSU at the buzzer. Calipari has all the roster pieces he needs, but the puzzle remains a mystery. Kentucky is the definition of a team with a high ceiling (national championship potential) and a low floor (first-round NCAA Tournament exit) as the season heads toward March. Calipari has not advanced past the first weekend of the tournament since 2019.

In the Ken Pomeroy ratings, Auburn is the nation’s No. 5 team and Alabama is No. 6, with the Crimson Tide ranking first in offensive efficiency due to their emphasis on 3-point shooting (38% on 30.8 attempts per game). Kentucky ranks 23rd overall and ninth in offensive efficiency.

DraftKings opened Alabama-Kentucky as a pick ‘em game, and the line moved to Wildcats -3 by Saturday morning after sharp money showed on the home team. I made Kentucky a small favorite in the game and bet that side Friday night at -1.5.

Alabama plays smarter basketball, but the situational spot is better for Kentucky, which also boasts more talent. The Wildcats have four guards — Reed Sheppard, DJ Wagner, Rob Dillingham and Antonio Reeves — with pro futures and a few skilled big men.

Pick: (682) Kentucky -2.5.

Ten more plays for Saturday (with betting rotation numbers in parenthesis):
(608) Baylor (+2.5) over Houston
(640) Kansas State (+1) over BYU
(642) Wake Forest (-2) over Duke
(688) Oklahoma State (-1) over Oklahoma
(693) UC Irvine (+1) at UC San Diego
(740) Kansas (-8) over Texas
(760) Arizona State (+5.5) over Washington State
(764) UNLV (pick) over Colorado State
(770) Connecticut (-11.5) over Villanova
(810) Hawaii (-2.5) over Long Beach State

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