College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Friday, February 6.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Davidson Wildcats
Neither team is pushing a fast tempo, with Loyola Chicago 307th in total possessions per game, while Davidson is 344th. Loyola Chicago has not been able to develop clean offensive possessions, ranking 326th in turnovers per possession away from home. They are not capable of taking advantage of Davidson’s biggest flaw of ranking 257th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which gets masked by Loyola Chicago being just 287th in points per possession, and they take 47.2% of their field goal attempts from 3-point range, the 30th-highest 3-point shot rate in the nation.
Pick: Loyola Chicago vs. Davidson Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 136)
7:00 PM Eastern
Dayton Flyers vs. VCU Rams
Dayton has seen their 3-point shooting percentage take a step back from a season ago, ranking 245th this season after being 59th a season ago. But they have stepped up their defense, ranking 50th in points per possession allowed, thanks to ranking third in the country in turnovers per possession on defense. VCU has a nice edge on the offensive glass, ranking 63rd in offensive rebound percentage with 33.1% of their missed shots becoming an offensive rebound. Dayton is 288th in this category, but they are 61st in defensive rebound percentage in games played away from home.
Pick: Dayton +7.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Dayton +6 and Total 148)
Brown Bears vs. Yale Bulldogs
Neither team pushes a fast tempo, with Yale 313th in possessions per game and Brown 236th, but Yale is making the most of their possessions, ranking fifth in points per possession on offense. While Brown has struggled on offense, ranking just 336th in points per possession, they are averaging more points per possession away from home than at home and should find scoring chances against a Yale defense that is 323rd in the nation in points per possession allowed at home.
Pick: Brown vs. Yale Over 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
Bradley Braves vs. Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Iowa is playing at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 360th in possessions per game. They are not giving opponents good looks from 3-point range, ranking second in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26.7%. Bradley has failed to execute on the inside, ranking 275th in 2-point shooting percentage. While the team plays at a moderate tempo, ranking 159th in possessions per game, they cut down even further on the amount of clean possessions in a game, ranking 28th in turnovers per possession.
Picks: Northern Iowa -2.5 and Under 131.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Iowa -3.5 and Total 127.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Drake Bulldogs vs. Illinois State Redbirds
The Drake defense has performed much better on the road than at home this season, ranking 93rd in points per possession away from home compared to 330th at home. They have been strongest inside, ranking 66th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at home. Illinois State has been one of the most stifling defenses at home this season, ranking 20th in points per possession allowed overall and third specifically in home games. Neither team is pushing an aggressive pace, with Illinois State 235th in possessions per game and Drake is 216th.
Pick: Drake vs. Illinois State Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141.5)
Evansville Purple Aces vs. Valparaiso Beacons
Evansville has struggled in a big way on offense, ranking 345th in points per possession, with turnovers killing the team, ranking 335th in turnovers per possession. They face a Valparaiso team that simply has not shot well, ranking 275th in 3-point shooting percentage and 343rd in 2-point shooting percentage. Overall, they are 273rd in points per possession and Evansville has done a respectable job in not allowing second chances to score, ranking 144th in defensive rebound percentage. Valparaiso is allowing opponents to rebound 30.8% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound at home, ranking 305th in the nation.
Pick: Evansville +10.5 (Greg’s Handicap Evansville +8.5)
Murray State Racers vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Southern Illinois has failed to do the little things on offense, ranking 280th in points per possession overall and are 359th in free throw shooting percentage at home at 63.4%, 355th in 3-point shooting percentage at 28.5%, and 228th in turnovers per possession. Murray State is 31st in points per possession away from home on offense and are 98th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage on defense, which is all the more important with Southern Illinois sixth in the nation in percentage of shots that are inside the 3-point arc.
Pick: Murray State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Murray State -4.5)
Connecticut Huskies vs. St. John’s Red Storm
This will be a tempo war with Connecticut 257th in total possessions per game and St. John’s 37th. Both have been stout on defense, with Connecticut ninth in the country in points per possession allowed and St. John’s 26th, but specifically at home that ascends to 15th for St. John’s. They should get the most opportunities to score in this game, with the team 30th in turnovers per possession generated on defense. On offense, they are 18th in percentage of missed shots that became an offensive rebound, while Connecticut is 49th.
Pick: St. John’s Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap St. John’s -1.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Belmont Bruins vs. Illinois-Chicago Flames
While Belmont gets accolades for their great 3-point shooting, ranking second in the nation in road 3-point shooting at 42.6%. Belmont has been one of the better road defenses in the country, ranking sixth in points per possession in a road or neutral court setting with allowing nothing easy inside, ranking fourth in opponent 2-point shooting percentage away from home, which looms large. Illinois-Chicago ranks 321st in 3-point shooting percentage at 30.8%, but on defense can irritate Belmont’s offense. They rank 25th in turnovers generated per possession at home and allow teams to make just 29% of their 3-point shots at home, while Belmont is 274th in turnovers per possession at home and shoot 67% at the free throw line, which is 336th.
Pick: Belmont vs. Illinois-Chicago Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 149.5)
