College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Friday, November 21.
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12:30 PM Eastern
Yale Bulldogs vs. UW Green Bay Phoenix
Despite a narrow road loss to Minnesota, UW Green Bay has struggled across the board, ranking 302nd in points per possession on offense and 331st in points per possession allowed on defense. Yale, meanwhile, is fourth in the nation in points per possession on offense in games played away from home, with wins of over 25 points already against Quinnipiac and Navy in true road games. The Bulldogs should also dominate the boards with the Phoenix ranking 364th in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing a rebound on only 14.1% of missed shots.
Pick: Yale -15.5 (Greg’s Handicap Yale -22.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
Utah State Aggies vs. Tulane Green Wave
Tulane has been the victim of some bad 3-point shooting variance, with opponents making 41.6% of their 3-point shots after the Green Wave ranked 109th last season in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 32.7%. Still, they’re doing the little things well, making 83.7% of their free throws and committing only 8.5 turnovers per game, ranking in the top 28 nationally in both free throw percentage and turnovers per possession. Utah State is 41st in turnovers forced per possession, but the offense appears to have taken a step back from a season ago, currently 143rd in points per possession with 13.3 turnovers per game.
Pick: Tulane +11.5 (Greg’s Handicap Tulane +6.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Butler Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Butler should see its current ranking of 16th in total possessions per game normalize, as matchups against super-fast teams like SMU and IU Indy have skewed their metrics. South Carolina, meanwhile, is 178th in possessions per game. Both defenses have been solid, with South Carolina 57th in points per possession allowed and Butler 45th. Played in a ballroom-style setup at Greenbrier Colonial Hall, this one may feature some shaky sight lines for both offenses.
Pick: Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 147.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Lafayette Leopards vs. Stonehill Skyhawks
The Stonehill offense has struggled with Holy Cross transfer Will Batchelder injured and missing the past three games, but things should get on track against a Lafayette squad that is 356th in points per possession allowed and getting pounded on the glass, ranking 344th in rebound percentage. Stonehill ranks a respectable 182nd in rebound percentage.
Pick: Stonehill Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap Stonehill -8)
SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs. Air Force Falcons
SIU Edwardsville has allowed 64 points or fewer in three of its first four games, with only one bad showing against a very efficient Wisconsin offense dropping them to 116th in points per possession allowed. Air Force is 311th in points per possession on offense, with only 17 Division I teams scoring fewer points per possession at home. The Falcons also play extremely slowly, ranking 294th in possessions per game.
Pick: SIU Edwardsville -2.5 (Greg’s Handicap SIU Edwardsville -8)
Columbia Lions vs. Lehigh Mountain Hawks
Columbia made a coaching change in the offseason to former Florida assistant Kevin Hovde, who retained most of last season’s roster that ranked 335th in points per possession allowed. Their current ranking of 105th is more a reflection of playing three inefficient offenses—New Haven, UMass Lowell, and Boston U. Their pace, currently 335th in possessions per game, should also rise with their upcoming schedule. Lehigh’s offensive metrics have been dwarfed by games against two of the slowest teams in the nation, Houston and West Virginia, yet they’ve scored at least 70 in every other game. Rebounding remains an issue, ranking 345th in rebound percentage.
Pick: Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 152)
Georgia Southern Eagles vs. Florida State Seminoles
Florida State’s offense has been explosive at home, ranking 34th in points per possession under first-year coach Luke Loucks, with 41.8% of their points coming from made 3-pointers—the 14th-highest rate in the nation. Georgia Southern has defended the 3-point line well, holding opponents to 27.1% from deep after ranking 83rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage last season. Both teams generate turnovers, with Florida State fourth in turnovers per possession and Georgia Southern 58th.
Picks: Georgia Southern +16.5 and Under 177.5 (Greg’s Handicap Georgia Southern +14 and Total 168)
6:30 PM Eastern
Charlotte 49ers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
These are two of the slowest teams in college basketball, with Charlotte ranking 347th in possessions per game and Appalachian State 354th. Appalachian State has been the stronger defensive unit, ranking 81st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage compared to Charlotte at 191st. Charlotte’s current 38.4% 3-point clip also looks unsustainable—it drops to 30.4% in games away from home, and the 49ers shot just 31% last season (322nd nationally).
Pick: Appalachian State -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Appalachian State -6.5)
Central Connecticut Blue Devils vs. Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Central Connecticut ranks 53rd in points per possession allowed in games played away from home, while Rutgers is 44th overall in points per possession allowed, which helps compensate for an offense that lacks explosiveness. Rutgers ranks 217th in 2-point shooting percentage and 255th in possessions per game.
Picks: Central Connecticut +15.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap Central Connecticut +13.5 and Total 137.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Hampton Pirates vs. Norfolk State Spartans
Hampton has done a solid job creating second-chance scoring opportunities, ranking 70th in offensive rebound percentage. Norfolk State should see negative defensive regression, as opponents are shooting only 25.7% from 3 against them after ranking 186th last season in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Their ugly 51–41 slog against defense-heavy Towson has also skewed their metrics, including ranking 338th in points per possession on offense—an area that should improve as the sample grows.
Pick: Over 131.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Xavier Musketeers
Georgia’s offense has received a lot of early-season buzz, ranking 19th in points per possession and 17th in possessions per game, but the Bulldogs have actually been even better on defense, ranking fourth in points per possession allowed. They face a Xavier team playing at a mid-tempo pace (187th in possessions per game) with a guard rotation made up of mid-major transfers that has struggled early, ranking 209th in points per possession and 332nd in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Under 165.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 153.5)
10:30 PM Eastern
Southern Jaguars vs. San Jose State Spartans
Southern may be worn down after a double-overtime thriller against Washington and now faces a San Jose State squad that will exploit two weaknesses: Southern ranks 263rd in defensive rebound percentage and 268th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. They’ve also taken a major step back in turnovers forced, sitting 328th in turnovers per possession. San Jose State should be more efficient inside, ranking 146th in 2-point shooting percentage compared to Southern at 323rd.
Pick: San Jose State -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap San Jose State -10.5)
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. UCLA Bruins
Presbyterian has slowed games to a crawl, ranking dead last nationally in possessions per game. UCLA has also played slowly (299th in possessions per game) and has been mixing and matching lineups with Donavon Dent and Eric Dailey each missing a game due to injury—both are expected to be available Friday. Presbyterian has shown defensive cracks, ranking 204th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Over 129.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141)
