College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, January 11.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Creighton vs. Butler
Both teams rank in the bottom five nationally in turnovers forced per possession on defense, but Butler has the better shooting statistics. Butler ranks 35th in 3-point shooting percentage at 37.6%, while Creighton is 134th and shoots just 31.1% from 3-point range in road and neutral court games.
Pick: Butler +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Butler -1)
USC vs. Illinois
It is unclear if Illinois’ top scorer, Kasparas Jakucionis, will play due to a hand injury that kept him out of the team’s win over Penn State earlier in the week. What is clear, however, is Illinois’ defensive dominance. Illinois ranks second nationally in fewest points allowed per possession at home, while USC ranks 264th in points per possession on the road and 162nd in total possessions per game.
Pick: USC vs. Illinois Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 148)
Notre Dame vs. Duke
After missing seven games earlier this season, Notre Dame’s top scorer Markus Burton has returned, and the team has covered the spread in both of his games back. Those games were one-point losses to North Carolina at home and NC State on the road. Aside from the game in which Burton was injured, he has scored at least 15 points in every game he has played this season.
Pick: Notre Dame +20.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Notre Dame +15.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
Belmont vs. Indiana State
Indiana State ranks 333rd in turnovers per possession on offense and will face a Belmont team that excels at shooting from distance. Belmont ranks 19th nationally in 3-point shooting percentage on the road at 38.8%.
Pick: Belmont +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Belmont -3)
2:00 PM Eastern
Cleveland State vs. Youngstown State
Youngstown State ranks 48th nationally in points per possession allowed on defense but is just 319th in 3-point shooting percentage. Cleveland State ranks 245th in points per possession on offense and 288th in possessions per game, while Youngstown State is 187th in total possessions per game at home.
Pick: Cleveland State vs. Youngstown State Under 140.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 133.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Wichita State vs. UT San Antonio
Wichita State ranks 146th in points per possession on offense and 313th in 3-point shooting percentage. Meanwhile, UT San Antonio has shown strong defensive pressure, ranking 66th in turnovers forced. Additionally, UT San Antonio is third nationally in free throw shooting percentage at 82.1%.
Pick: UT San Antonio +6.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UT San Antonio -1.5)
4:30 PM Eastern
Texas Southern vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff
Guard Doctor Bradley has made an immediate impact for Arkansas Pine Bluff, scoring 65 points across two games. Arkansas Pine Bluff faces a Texas Southern defense ranked 333rd in points allowed per possession on the road and 344th in road rebound percentage.
Pick: Arkansas Pine Bluff +7.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Arkansas Pine Bluff +2.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Houston vs. Kansas State
Houston leads the nation in points allowed per possession on defense, but they allow 24.8 more points per 100 possessions in road and neutral court games than at home. Kansas State ranks 71st in points per possession on offense at home, compared to 161st in road and neutral court games.
Pick: Kansas State +12.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Kansas State +10.5)
Virginia Tech vs. California
Virginia Tech ranks 325th in turnovers per possession on the road, while California ranks 79th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.7%. California will face a Virginia Tech defense that allows opponents to make 37% of their 3-point attempts on the road, ranking 287th nationally.
Pick: California -6.5 (Greg’s Handicap: California -8.5)
Tennessee vs. Texas
Despite scoring just 43 points in a loss to Florida on Tuesday, Tennessee ranks 38th nationally in points per possession. Texas, tied with Baylor for the top spot in points per possession in home games, has allowed at least 80 points in both SEC games they’ve played this season.
Pick: Tennessee vs. Texas Over 135 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 137.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Villanova vs. St. John’s
Villanova plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, ranking 360th in total possessions per game. St. John’s excels defensively, ranking 10th nationally in points allowed per possession, fourth in blocked shot rate, and 27th in turnovers forced per possession. However, St. John’s struggles offensively, ranking 304th in 3-point shooting percentage at 30%.
Pick: Villanova vs. St. John’s Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 144.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Boise State vs. Utah State
Both teams have similar defensive metrics, with Utah State ranked 57th and Boise State ranked 62nd in points allowed per possession. Boise State ranks 278th in possessions per game and 310th in 3-point shooting percentage, while Utah State’s 3-point shooting percentage is 217th.
Pick: Boise State vs. Utah State Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego
San Diego ranks 348th nationally in 3-point shooting at 27.8%. Saint Mary’s, ranked fourth in points allowed per possession on the road, also plays at a slow pace, ranking 312th in possessions per game.
Pick: Saint Mary’s vs. San Diego Under 137 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 133.5)
