College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Friday, March 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily College Basketball Lines and his Coast 2 Coast Hoops Podcast. Also, check out our College Basketball Betting Splits.
12:40 PM Eastern
Robert Morris vs. Alabama
Alabama plays at the fastest pace in all of college basketball and can either create a blowout or be stunned depending on whether their 3-pointers fall. They attempt 46.2% of their field goals from 3-point range, the 41st-highest rate in the country. However, Alabama’s defense enters in poor form, having allowed at least 79 points in nine of their last 11 games. They face a Robert Morris team that is rebounding 36.2% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds in games played away from home, ranking seventh in the nation.
Pick: Robert Morris +22.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Robert Morris +17.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Colorado State vs. Memphis
Both teams shoot very well from 3-point range. Colorado State ranks 52nd nationally, hitting 36.6% of their threes, while Memphis makes 38.5% of their 3-point shots away from home, which ranks ninth in the nation. Though the injury to Memphis’ Tyrese Hunter impacts their offense—he averages 13.7 points per game on 40.1% 3-point shooting—PJ Carter should be able to replace much of the 3-point production as a 39.7% shooter. The biggest issue with the injury is the drop in defense, as Hunter also averaged 1.5 steals per game.
Pick: Colorado State vs. Memphis Over 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 149)
4:05 PM Eastern
North Carolina vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss’ biggest weakness is on the glass, ranking 322nd in the country in rebound percentage. While this year’s North Carolina team isn’t as dominant in the paint as past seasons, Ven-Allen Lubin has stepped up in a big way. He has recorded a double-double in four of the past five games and scored at least 10 points in nine straight games, averaging 13.8 points and 8.1 rebounds per game in that stretch. His play has helped North Carolina go 7-2 over this period.
Pick: North Carolina -2 (Greg’s Handicap: North Carolina -3)
4:35 PM Eastern
Maryland vs. Grand Canyon
Grand Canyon has struggled with turnovers, ranking 275th in turnovers per possession. Though they play at a fast pace, ranking 16th in total possessions per game, they rank only 136th in points per possession. Their 3-point shooting is also an issue, as they hit just 29.4% of their threes away from home, ranking 331st nationally. They now face a Maryland defense that ranks sixth in the country in points per possession allowed and 29th in offensive points per possession. Maryland also allows the 16th-fewest free throw attempts per possession, which is significant since Grand Canyon gets 24.4% of its points from made free throws in road games—the sixth-highest rate in the nation.
Pick: Maryland -10 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicaps: Maryland -12 and Total 148)
7:10 PM Eastern
Troy vs. Kentucky
Kentucky is currently without Jaxson Robinson, who averages 13 points per game, but injuries in the backcourt have been a theme all season. Despite this, Kentucky still has five players averaging more than 10 points per game and remains 15th in the country in points per possession. They should be able to control a Troy team that shoots just 27.3% from 3-point range away from home, ranking 354th out of 364 Division I teams—the lowest percentage among NCAA Tournament teams.
Pick: Kentucky -11 (Greg’s Handicap: Kentucky -14.5)
7:35 PM Eastern
Marquette vs. New Mexico
Marquette has won the turnover battle all season, ranking 20th in turnovers forced per possession on defense and third in fewest turnovers committed per possession away from home. However, New Mexico matches that, ranking 36th in turnovers per possession, while also holding a big advantage on the glass. Marquette ranks 241st in rebound percentage, whereas New Mexico ranks 57th. New Mexico forward Nelly Junior Joseph is the most dominant big man in this matchup, ranking third in the country in rebounds per game among qualifying players while averaging 14 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game.
Pick: New Mexico +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap: New Mexico -1.5)
Akron vs. Arizona
Akron plays at one of the fastest tempos in the country, ranking seventh in possessions per game away from home. However, they also rank 64th in points per possession allowed in road games. Arizona’s offense has struggled from deep, shooting just 30.3% from 3-point range away from home, and ranks only 69th in points per possession in road games.
Pick: Akron +14.5 and Under 167.5 (Greg’s Handicaps: Akron +9.5 and Total 163.5)
9:25 PM Eastern
Oklahoma vs. Connecticut
While season-long stats show Connecticut allowing opponents to shoot 40% from 3-point range in road games, that number is skewed by a poor showing at the Maui Invitational. More recently, they’ve tightened up defensively, allowing 71 points or fewer in five straight games and in six of their past 11. Connecticut also leads the country in blocked shot percentage away from home, with three players averaging at least 1.5 blocks per game. Oklahoma, meanwhile, ranks 13th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 29.4%.
Pick: Oklahoma vs. Connecticut Under 149 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 141.5)
9:45 PM Eastern
Xavier vs. Illinois
Illinois attempts 46.9% of its field goals from 3-point range, the 31st-highest rate in the country, but they struggle with accuracy, ranking 316th in 3-point shooting at just 31.1%. Xavier, by contrast, is sixth in the nation in 3-point percentage at 38.8%, and they should exploit an Illinois defense that ranks 253rd in points per possession allowed away from home.
Pick: Xavier +3.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Xavier -1.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Bryant vs. Michigan State
Michigan State’s strengths this season have been 3-point defense and rebounding. They rank second in opponent 3-point shooting percentage (27.8%) and third in rebound percentage. However, Bryant has the size to match up, with all five of their top scorers standing 6-foot-6 or taller. Additionally, they rely less on 3-point shooting, attempting just 34.8% of their field goals from beyond the arc (ranking 284th nationally). Michigan State, meanwhile, has struggled from deep, making just 30.8% of their 3-point attempts, ranking 328th in the country.
Pick: Bryant +17.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Bryant +14)
10:10 PM Eastern
Liberty vs. Oregon
Liberty has a significant edge from beyond the arc, ranking third in the country in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 40.3%. They also rank third in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 28% and 14th in points per possession away from home. Oregon, while ranking 59th in 3-point defense overall, allows just 29.6% from deep at home compared to 33.6% on the road.
Pick: Liberty +7 (Greg’s Handicap: Liberty -1)
