College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Monday, February 16.
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4:30 PM Eastern
Coppin State Eagles vs. South Carolina State Bulldogs
It has been a struggle for both teams on defense this season, with South Carolina State ranking 348th in points per possession allowed and Coppin State 358th. However, South Carolina State has the much more competent offense. Coppin State ranks 362nd in points per possession and does not have a single player on the roster averaging at least 10 points per game, while South Carolina State is shooting a respectable 36.7% from 3-point range at home.
Pick: South Carolina State -4.5
Greg’s Handicap: South Carolina State -8.5
6:00 PM Eastern
Colgate Raiders vs. Boston University Terriers
Despite Boston U being one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 320th in total possessions per game, they are 342nd in points per possession allowed at home. Offensively, Boston U is 12th in 3-point shooting percentage at 38.4%, but they face a Colgate defense that is holding opponents to just 30.8% from 3-point range in road games, which ranks 40th in the country. On offense, Colgate ranks 84th in 2-point shooting percentage away from home, while Boston U is 301st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at home.
Pick: Colgate -1.5
Greg’s Handicap: Colgate -6
7:00 PM Eastern
Grambling Tigers vs. Prairie View A&M Panthers
Both teams thrive on generating turnovers on defense, with Grambling ranking ninth in turnovers per possession generated away from home and Prairie View 36th overall in turnovers per possession forced. Prairie View has done a better job taking care of the ball on offense, ranking 146th in turnovers per possession, while Grambling is 357th. In a game that should feature plenty of free throws—Grambling ranks 318th in free throw attempts allowed per opponent field goal attempt and Prairie View 361st—Grambling shoots 72.5% from the line (172nd), while Prairie View shoots 75.4% (74th).
Pick: Prairie View +2.5
Greg’s Handicap: Prairie View -2
Norfolk State Spartans vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks
Maryland-Eastern Shore is playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 330th in possessions per game. Both teams have struggled offensively, with Norfolk State ranking 313th in points per possession and Maryland-Eastern Shore 359th. UMES home games involve plenty of dead possessions, as the team ranks sixth in the country in turnovers per possession generated at home on defense, while on offense they are 365th out of 365 Division I teams in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Norfolk State vs. Maryland-Eastern Shore Under 136.5
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 131
Morgan State Bears vs. North Carolina Central Eagles
NC Central gambles for turnovers, ranking 12th in the nation in turnovers generated per possession at home, yet they are 332nd in points per possession allowed on defense. They are nearly as inefficient offensively, ranking 329th in points per possession. Morgan State ranks second in MEAC conference play in fewest turnovers per game and has done a solid job guarding the perimeter, ranking 89th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 32.3%, while NC Central is 345th in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Morgan State +5.5
Greg’s Handicap: Morgan State -1
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Alabama State Hornets
Mississippi Valley State is struggling in nearly every aspect, ranking 364th in points per possession on offense and 361st in points per possession allowed. Alabama State should see its strange home and road offensive splits even out, as the team is shooting 33.7% from 3-point range away from home compared to 27.5% at home and is averaging 1.6 points per 100 possessions fewer at home. Regardless of location, Alabama State has remained consistent generating turnovers, ranking 23rd overall in turnovers per possession generated, which rises to eighth at home. Mississippi Valley State ranks 359th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Alabama State -15.5 and Over 140
Greg’s Handicap: Alabama State -20.5 and Total 142.5
Wagner Seahawks vs. Long Island Sharks
Long Island’s games feature plenty of second-chance opportunities. The team ranks 254th in defensive rebound percentage, while offensively they rebound 34.6% of their missed shots, which ranks 31st in the country. Both teams shoot the 3-ball well. Wagner ranks 10th in road 3-point shooting percentage at 39.5%, while Long Island is 61st at home at 37.7%. Wagner is 275th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Wagner vs. Long Island Over 134.5
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 143.5
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats vs. Jackson State Tigers
Both teams are looking to push the pace, with Bethune-Cookman ranking 64th in possessions per game and Jackson State 56th. Jackson State has been crushed on defense, ranking 355th in points per possession allowed, while Bethune-Cookman ranks 185th. However, in road games that balloons to 259th, as they allow 20.1 more points per 100 possessions away from home. Jackson State ranks 343rd overall in points per possession for the season but leads the SWAC in scoring during conference play at 78.5 points per game and ranks 150th in points per possession at home.
Pick: Bethune-Cookman vs. Jackson State Over 148.5
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 154.5
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Marshall Thundering Herd
South Alabama dares teams to shoot from 3-point range, with 64.2% of opponent field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc. No other team forces opponents to take more than 53.3% of their shots from 3. However, they run into a Marshall team that ranks 17th in home 3-point shooting percentage at 40.1%. This game may feature fewer scoring opportunities than Marshall prefers, as South Alabama ranks just 265th in possessions per game, despite going to overtime Saturday. Marshall still holds the edge inside, even with 7-foot-4 Matthew Van Komen injured, ranking 78th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and 23rd in blocked shot percentage.
Pick: Marshall -3.5 and Under 150.5
Greg’s Handicap: Marshall -6.5 and Total 142.5
8:00 PM Eastern
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Alabama A&M has struggled to execute inside on offense, ranking 326th in 2-point shooting percentage, and they are not generating second chances, ranking 292nd in offensive rebound percentage. Arkansas-Pine Bluff has turnover issues, ranking 325th in turnovers per possession, but Alabama A&M is just 164th in turnovers per possession generated on defense and 233rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Pine Bluff shoots 34.1% from 3-point range and ranks 62nd in free throw shooting percentage at 75.8%, which is significant considering Alabama A&M ranks 278th in free throw attempts allowed per opponent field goal attempt.
Pick: Arkansas-Pine Bluff +3.5 and Over 143.5
Greg’s Handicap: Arkansas-Pine Bluff -2.5 and Total 146.5
Drexel Dragons vs. Stony Brook Seawolves
Neither team pushes the tempo, with Stony Brook ranking 256th in possessions per game and Drexel 335th. Neither team is finishing well inside the arc, as Drexel ranks 265th in 2-point shooting percentage, while Stony Brook is 296th overall and falls to 341st away from home. In a tight game, Stony Brook holds the edge at the free throw line, ranking 226th at 71%, while Drexel is 355th at 65.6%, which drops to 63.9% away from home. Stony Brook also takes better care of the ball, ranking 180th in turnovers per possession, while Drexel is 292nd. Drexel ranks 272nd overall in points per possession.
Pick: Drexel vs. Stony Brook Under 133.5
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 126.5
Abilene Christian Wildcats vs. Tarleton State Texans
This game should feature plenty of turnovers, as Tarleton State leads the country in turnovers per possession generated and Abilene Christian ranks third. Tarleton State is 348th in turnovers per possession on offense, while Abilene Christian is 352nd. Even with the turnovers, there should be ample scoring opportunities, as Tarleton State pushes a fast tempo, ranking 47th in possessions per game. Tarleton also holds an edge inside, leading the nation in percentage of field goal attempts that are 2-point shots, and they face an Abilene Christian defense that ranks 287th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and dead last in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 39.3%.
Pick: Tarleton State -1.5 and Over 135.5
Greg’s Handicap: Tarleton State -6.5 and Total 140.5
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders
Stephen F. Austin has defended well away from home all season, ranking ninth in points per possession allowed on the road. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi has also been solid defensively, ranking 64th in points per possession allowed, and they limit clean possessions with their ability to generate turnovers, ranking 24th in turnovers per possession on defense. Neither team pushes the pace, with Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 234th in possessions per game and Stephen F. Austin 284th. If the game is close late, both teams are poor at the free throw line, as Texas A&M-Corpus Christi ranks 344th at 66.9% and Stephen F. Austin 329th at 67.5%.
Pick: Stephen F. Austin vs. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Under 139
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 135
Florida A&M Rattlers vs. Alcorn State Braves
While both teams have slowed down since the start of SWAC play, they are still operating at a solid pace. Florida A&M ranks 79th in possessions per game, while Alcorn State is 184th. The Alcorn State defense is allowing plenty of clean scoring chances, ranking 354th in points per possession allowed. Offensively, Alcorn State ranks 97th in 3-point shooting percentage at 35.4%, while Florida A&M is 264th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 35.5%.
Pick: Florida A&M vs. Alcorn State Over 138.5
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 145.5
