College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Monday, January 12.
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6:00 PM Eastern
NC Central Eagles vs. Morgan State Bears
Morgan State has slowed its tempo from past seasons, ranking 193rd in possessions per game, while NC Central ranks 260th. Morgan State has also done a solid job generating turnovers at home, ranking 56th in turnovers per possession. Both offenses have struggled mightily, with NC Central ranking 337th in points per possession and Morgan State 339th.
Pick: NC Central vs. Morgan State Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 141.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Grambling Tigers vs. Florida A&M Rattlers
Grambling coach Patrick Crarey has revenge on his mind after coaching Florida A&M last season under a murky contract situation. Grambling games feature heavy turnover numbers, ranking 357th in turnovers per possession on offense but 13th in turnovers generated per possession on defense in road games. Florida A&M is similar, ranking 350th offensively in turnovers per possession and 80th defensively. Grambling holds a significant shooting edge, ranking 142nd in 3-point shooting at 34.2%, while Florida A&M is 272nd at 31.2%, dropping to just 25.9% at home.
Picks: Grambling -2.5 and Over 140.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Grambling -5.5, Total 145.5)
New Orleans Privateers vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions
Southeastern Louisiana has struggled in the backcourt, ranking 332nd in points per possession at home, with 27% 3-point shooting (361st nationally) being the biggest culprit. New Orleans has a major edge on the glass, ranking 163rd in rebound percentage compared to Southeastern Louisiana’s 306th, and has also been strong defensively inside away from home, ranking 93rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage in road and neutral games.
Pick: New Orleans Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap: New Orleans -2)
Maryland Eastern Shore Eagles vs. Norfolk State Spartans
Both offenses have been awful, with Maryland Eastern Shore ranking 356th in points per possession and Norfolk State 334th. Maryland Eastern Shore plays slow games, ranking 318th in possessions per game, and squanders possessions by ranking 362nd in turnovers per possession. Defensively, Maryland Eastern Shore has been respectable, ranking 133rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 187th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Neither team shoots free throws well, with Maryland Eastern Shore ranking 326th and Norfolk State 361st.
Pick: Maryland Eastern Shore vs. Norfolk State Under 132.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 124.5)
Alcorn State Braves vs. Alabama State Hornets
Alcorn State has struggled in year one under coach Jake Morton, ranking 360th in points per possession allowed on defense and 352nd offensively, with rebounding a major issue at 359th nationally. Alabama State has the perimeter edge, ranking 98th in turnovers forced per possession, and should see shooting regression after going just 9.1% from 3-point range against Jackson State, having shot 34.6% from deep against Division I opponents prior to that game.
Picks: Alabama State -7 and Over 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Alabama State -12.5, Total 162.5)
Delaware State Hornets vs. Howard Bison
Howard has slowed its tempo, ranking 222nd in possessions per game, with improved defense as a result, ranking 19th in turnovers forced per possession and 101st in points per possession allowed. Delaware State ranks 319th in turnovers per possession on offense and lacks low-post play to compensate, ranking 332nd in rebound percentage and 324th in 3-point shooting at 29.7%, while Howard shoots 33.1%.
Pick: Howard -9.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Howard -14.5)
Southern Jaguars vs. Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
Both teams have struggled defensively, with Southern ranking 342nd and Bethune-Cookman 348th in points per possession allowed. Southern plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation, ranking 25th in possessions per game, and has allowed at least 73 points in all but one Division I game. Bethune-Cookman gets a boost with Doctor Bradley returning after making his season debut Saturday, following a season where he averaged 19.5 points and 9.5 rebounds at Arkansas-Pine Bluff and led the nation in free throw attempts.
Pick: Southern vs. Bethune-Cookman Over 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 156.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Jackson State Tigers vs. Alabama A&M Bulldogs
Jackson State’s metrics underrate them somewhat, but the team is still at a massive rebounding disadvantage, ranking 363rd in defensive rebound percentage. Alabama A&M limits second chances well, ranking 107th in defensive rebound percentage, and is 104th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at home. Jackson State continues to struggle from the perimeter, ranking 276th in 3-point shooting at 30.6%.
Pick: Alabama A&M -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Alabama A&M -9.5)
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Texas Southern Tigers
Mississippi Valley State’s metrics are dreadful, ranking 364th in points per possession on offense and 361st on defense, but top rebounder Daniel Mayfield returns after missing the end of non-conference play. Texas Southern has struggled with chemistry due to injuries, with every player missing at least one game, and their metrics mirror Mississippi Valley State’s struggles, ranking 349th offensively and 355th defensively.
Pick: Mississippi Valley State +14.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Mississippi Valley State +9.5)
