College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Monday, January 5.
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6:00 PM Eastern
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State ranks 89th overall in points per possession allowed on defense, with its biggest strength coming around the perimeter, ranking 39th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.9%. Nebraska is also daring teams to shoot from the outside, ranking 45th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30.1%, with 58% of opponent shots coming from 3-point range in games played away from home, the second-highest rate in the country. Both teams entered the series shooting an identical 34.2% from 3-point range.
Pick: Nebraska vs. Ohio State Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 148.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Alabama State Hornets vs. Arkansas–Pine Bluff Golden Lions
While Arkansas–Pine Bluff’s metrics are mostly outside the top 300, much of that stems from playing every non-conference Division I game on the road as a buy game. The Golden Lions responded by beating Alabama A&M 95–83 in their first home game against a Division I opponent. Alabama State ranks 330th in points per possession allowed but is 130th in 3-point shooting percentage and should get clean looks against an Arkansas–Pine Bluff defense ranking 312th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. This game should feature a fast pace, with Arkansas–Pine Bluff ranking 26th in possessions per game.
Picks: Arkansas–Pine Bluff +3 and Over 161 (Greg’s Handicap: Arkansas–Pine Bluff -3.5, Total 163.5)
Lamar Cardinals vs. Southeastern Louisiana Lions
Lamar’s offense is far from elite, but they hold a significant edge over a Southeastern Louisiana team ranking 316th in points per possession and 359th in 3-point shooting percentage at 26.5%. Lamar has also been stronger on the defensive glass, ranking 59th in defensive rebound percentage, while Southeast Louisiana allows opponents to rebound 31.7% of missed shots offensively at home, ranking 295th.
Pick: Lamar -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Lamar -4.5)
Yale Bulldogs vs. Brown Bears
Yale is scoring the second-most points per possession away from home of any team in the country, but this game should be played at a slow pace with Brown ranking 275th in possessions per game and Yale 305th. Defensively, Yale ranks 289th in points per possession allowed overall, but that improves by 5.1 points per 100 possessions away from home. Brown’s offense has struggled mightily at home, ranking 336th in points per possession.
Picks: Yale -8.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Yale -14.5, Total 142.5)
William & Mary Tribe vs. Charleston Cougars
Charleston’s metrics have been heavily impacted by injuries to guards Connor Hickman and Colby Duggan, both of whom are now active, but the Cougars still rank just 209th in points per possession at home. They are shooting 29.7% from 3-point range overall, which drops to 25.7% at home. William & Mary ranks fifth nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26.3% and, despite playing fast at 17th in possessions per game, their games feature plenty of dead possessions as they rank 12th in turnovers forced per possession away from home and 317th in turnovers per possession on offense away from home.
Picks: William & Mary +1.5 and Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap: William & Mary -3, Total 155)
Pennsylvania Quakers vs. Princeton Tigers
Princeton’s offense has not been at its usual level, ranking 293rd in points per possession and 213th in 3-point shooting percentage at 32.7%, despite taking 48.2% of its shots from beyond the arc, the 29th-highest rate in the country. Pennsylvania ranks 48th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30.2% and doesn’t have to worry about second chances, as Princeton ranks 321st in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Pennsylvania +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Pennsylvania -5.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks vs. McNeese Cowboys
Both teams are playing strong defense. Stephen F. Austin isn’t forcing turnovers at past levels, but still ranks 26th in points per possession allowed and 38th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. McNeese ranks 106th in points per possession allowed overall, but that improves to 40th at home thanks to generating turnovers at the third-highest rate per possession in the country. Both teams play at a slow pace, with Stephen F. Austin ranking 266th and McNeese 229th in possessions per game.
Picks: Stephen F. Austin +10.5 and Under 144 (Greg’s Handicap: Stephen F. Austin +7.5, Total 137.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
USC Trojans vs. Michigan State Spartans
USC wants to play fast, ranking 14th in the nation in possessions per game, but injuries have thinned their depth, most notably the season-ending loss of 20-plus-point-per-game scorer Rodney Rice. Michigan State is built around tough defense, ranking 29th in points per possession allowed and third in rebound percentage, while playing at a slower tempo, ranking 262nd in possessions per game.
Pick: USC vs. Michigan State Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 145.5)
