College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, December 13.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Michigan State Spartans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Michigan State is 13th in the country in points per possession allowed on defense and second in fewest points per possession allowed away from home while playing at a slow pace, ranking 323rd in possessions per game. Penn State is playing at the slowest pace they ever have under coach Mike Rhoades, ranking 257th in total possessions per game, and is unlikely to get many second chances to score with Michigan State leading the country in defensive rebound percentage, with just 20.1% of missed shots becoming an offensive rebound.
Pick: Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 139.5)
Canisius Golden Griffins vs. Maine Black Bears
These are two of the slowest teams in the nation, with Canisius last in total possessions per game while Maine isn’t too far ahead at 344th. Canisius has been inefficient on defense, ranking 315th in points per possession allowed, and is 352nd in turnovers per possession, while Maine is allowing opponents tons of second chances to score, ranking 333rd in defensive rebound percentage with teams grabbing 36.2% of their misses as offensive rebounds.
Pick: Over 122.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 130.5)
12:30 PM Eastern
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. George Mason Patriots
George Mason is 48th in the country in points per possession allowed on defense while Old Dominion has had issues on offense, ranking 222nd in points per possession. Though George Mason is 52nd in points per possession on offense, their current 38.9% 3-point shooting could be in line for some regression, and the team is 230th in turnovers per possession at home while playing at a slow pace, ranking 307th in possessions per game.
Pick: Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141)
2:00 PM Eastern
Prairie View Panthers vs. South Dakota Coyotes
South Dakota and Prairie View are both playing at a rapid pace, with South Dakota 28th in total possessions per game and Prairie View 33rd. Prairie View is allowing tons of second chances to score, ranking 327th in defensive rebound percentage with opponents grabbing 35.2% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, while South Dakota is 230th in rebound percentage and 263rd overall in points per possession allowed. Prairie View ranks 295th in that category.
Pick: Over 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 165.5)
Jackson State Tigers vs. Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern should get plenty of second chances to score with Jackson State ranking 363rd in defensive rebound percentage, with teams grabbing 43.5% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds. Jackson State is also 364th in the nation in points per possession on offense, going against a Northwestern team that excels at executing the little things, ranking 59th in points per possession on offense while being 28th in fewest turnovers per possession.
Pick: Northwestern -25.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northwestern -31)
3:00 PM Eastern
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
New Mexico State is playing at a very slow pace, ranking 317th in possessions per game, while Tulsa isn’t pushing much tempo either at 237th. New Mexico State is showing that last year’s 3-point shooting defense was no fluke, ranking 21st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage after being sixth in this category last season. Both teams limit second-chance points, with Tulsa 55th in defensive rebound percentage and New Mexico State 50th.
Pick: Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 140.5)
UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. Valparaiso Beacons
UNC Wilmington’s rebounding has traveled well this season, ranking 16th in defensive rebound percentage in road and neutral court games, with teams grabbing just 22.5% of their missed shots. Valparaiso has struggled on offense, ranking 268th in points per possession and 320th in 2-point shooting percentage, while Wilmington is 54th in points per possession.
Pick: UNC Wilmington -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap UNC Wilmington -9.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Nebraska is 23rd in the country in points per possession allowed while Illinois has slowed down from past seasons, ranking 164th in possessions per game, and is 13th in rebound percentage. Nebraska is ninth in defensive rebound percentage away from home, with opponents rebounding just 21.4% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds.
Picks: Nebraska +10.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap Nebraska +6.5 and Total 148.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Mount St. Mary’s Mountaineers vs. Loyola Maryland Greyhounds
Mount St. Mary’s has had a difficult time taking care of the ball, ranking 361st in turnovers per possession on offense, and is also not generating turnovers on defense, ranking 350th in turnovers per possession generated. Loyola Maryland has been solid with its interior offense, ranking 61st in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Under 148 (Greg’s Handicap Loyola Maryland -6 and Total 142)
7:00 PM Eastern
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Citadel is one of the least explosive offenses in the nation, ranking 359th in total possessions per game and 267th in points per possession. South Carolina is a mid-tempo team at 199th in possessions per game and the far superior defense, ranking 75th in points per possession allowed, while The Citadel is 357th.
Picks: South Carolina -23.5 and Under 141.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Carolina -27.5 and Total 133.5)
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Santa Clara has slowed down, ranking 220th in possessions per game and 99th in points per possession allowed on defense. Arizona State is 87th in points per possession on offense, and both teams have done a good job generating turnovers, with Arizona State 39th in turnovers per possession and Santa Clara 53rd.
Picks: Santa Clara -1.5 and Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap Santa Clara -3.5 and Total 153.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
SMU Mustangs vs. LSU Tigers
SMU and LSU have been very efficient on offense, with LSU 24th in points per possession and SMU 62nd. SMU ranks 22nd in possessions per game and LSU 98th. Defensively, LSU isn’t putting much pressure on opponents, ranking 282nd in turnovers per possession, and SMU’s current 25.6% opponent 3-point shooting percentage in road games should see regression.
Pick: Over 157.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 163.5)
9:30 PM Eastern
Arizona Wildcats vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Arizona has dialed back its tempo from past seasons, ranking 119th in possessions per game, while Alabama continues to play fast at 15th. Alabama is fourth in the nation in points per possession on offense in road and neutral court games, while Arizona is 23rd in points per possession on offense and 20th in points per possession allowed on defense. Arizona is seventh in rebound percentage, while Alabama is 103rd.
Picks: Arizona -1.5 and Under 177.5 (Greg’s Handicap Arizona -3.5 and Total 173.5)
Pepperdine Waves vs. CS Bakersfield Roadrunners
CS Bakersfield is looking to pound the ball inside, ranking 12th in the country in the percentage of shots that come from 2-point range at 71.5%, but is just 297th in 2-point shooting percentage while turning the ball over on 20.6% of possessions, ranking 334th. Pepperdine has the edge on the glass, ranking 233rd in rebound percentage while Bakersfield is 296th.
Pick: Pepperdine Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap Pepperdine -3)
Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Utah Utes
Mississippi State should get plenty of second chances to score with Utah ranking 228th in defensive rebound percentage. Utah is also looking to push teams inside, with 67.7% of opponents’ field goal attempts coming from 2-point range, the 19th-highest percentage in the country, while Mississippi State is 53rd in 2-point shooting percentage in road and neutral court games.
Pick: Mississippi State -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Mississippi State -6.5)
Midnight Eastern
UC San Diego Tritons vs. Tulane Green Wave
Tulane has been unable to give itself second chances, ranking 360th in offensive rebound percentage with just 17.2% of missed shots becoming offensive rebounds, while UC San Diego is eighth in the country in 3-point shooting percentage at 41%, which jumps to 42.7% in road games.
Pick: UC San Diego -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap UC San Diego -10)
