College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, December 20.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Oakland Grizzlies vs. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is playing slow and around a tough defense, ranking 296th in possessions per game and 18th in points per possession allowed, all while leading the nation in rebound percentage. Oakland is 280th in the percentage of missed shots that become offensive rebounds and is not putting teams under duress defensively, ranking 347th in turnovers forced per possession.
Picks: Michigan State -19.5 and Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Michigan State -23 and Total 151)
St. John’s Red Storm vs. Kentucky Wildcats
St. John’s is playing at a fast pace, ranking 21st in total possessions per game, yet is holding teams down defensively, ranking 30th in points per possession allowed. Kentucky has slowed its tempo to 168th in possessions per game and is much improved defensively, ranking 23rd in points per possession allowed. However, in five games against defenses ranked 100th or better in points per possession allowed, Kentucky has scored 72 points or fewer in four of them.
Pick: St. John’s vs. Kentucky Under 157 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 150)
2:00 PM Eastern
Iona Gaels vs. Vermont Catamounts
Iona has been a solid perimeter defensive team, ranking 94th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and its biggest issue with turnovers should not be exploited here as Vermont is 336th in turnovers forced per possession. Vermont is allowing teams to shoot 36% from 3-point range, ranking 287th nationally, while Iona ranks 63rd in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.8%, climbing to 38% in away games.
Picks: Iona +4.5 and Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Iona -1.5 and Total 143.5)
Lafayette Leopards vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Both offenses have struggled this season, with Georgia Tech ranking 259th in points per possession and Lafayette 267th. Georgia Tech has played the past two games without starting forward Baye Ndongo, whose status is uncertain, but the defense has remained strong, ranking 31st in points per possession allowed and 35th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, neutralizing Lafayette’s perimeter strength as the Leopards rank 50th in 3-point shooting at 37.4%.
Picks: Georgia Tech -14.5 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Georgia Tech -18.5 and Total 134.5)
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Massachusetts Minutemen
Kent State has cranked up the tempo to fourth in the nation in possessions per game, while Massachusetts ranks 44th. Massachusetts has been strong defensively, ranking 62nd in points per possession allowed. Kent State’s 3-point shooting should see regression, as the Flashes are shooting 38.9% overall after ranking 313th last season, but that number drops to 25.8% away from home. Massachusetts ranks eighth nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26.6%.
Picks: Massachusetts -1 and Under 168.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Massachusetts -4.5 and Total 162.5)
Elon Phoenix vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Elon ranks 15th in the nation in points per possession away from home, while Virginia Tech ranks 65th overall offensively. Elon has the edge on the glass, ranking 102nd in rebound percentage compared to Virginia Tech’s 170th. Virginia Tech has also been without starting forward Tobi Lawal, who averages 12.8 points and 10.3 rebounds per game, for the past six games.
Picks: Elon +14.5 and Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Elon +11 and Total 163)
3:00 PM Eastern
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. UL Monroe Warhawks
Louisiana has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 361st in points per possession, while also playing at one of the slowest tempos in the nation at 359th in possessions per game. UL Monroe has improved defensively, allowing 71 points or fewer in regulation in three of its past five games. Neither team generates many second chances, with UL Monroe ranking 327th and Louisiana 289th in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: UL Monroe +1.5 and Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UL Monroe -5.5 and Total 133.5)
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
North Carolina has slowed its tempo and stepped up defensively, ranking 14th in points per possession allowed and 211th in possessions per game. Ohio State has been efficient offensively, ranking 29th in points per possession, while also limiting second chances defensively, ranking 46th in defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: North Carolina vs. Ohio State Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 149)
4:30 PM Eastern
Arkansas State Red Wolves vs. Southern Mississippi Eagles
Both teams are strong on the offensive glass, with Southern Mississippi ranking 67th and Arkansas State 37th in offensive rebound percentage. Arkansas State has struggled from the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 37.4% from 3-point range away from home while shooting just 30.7% themselves, ranking 274th nationally, and they are 339th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Southern Mississippi +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Southern Mississippi -5)
5:00 PM Eastern
Loyola Chicago Ramblers vs. Santa Clara Broncos
Loyola Chicago has had a rough season, ranking 202nd in points per possession offensively and 324th defensively. Both teams should generate second chances, with Santa Clara ranking 245th and Loyola 267th in defensive rebound percentage. Santa Clara has a major edge on the offensive glass, ranking 12th nationally, and is also 43rd in turnovers forced per possession.
Picks: Santa Clara -17.5 and Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Santa Clara -21.5 and Total 143.5)
5:30 PM Eastern
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Houston Cougars
Houston is back to being slow and defense-oriented, ranking 315th in possessions per game and second nationally in fewest points per possession allowed. The Cougars control games by winning the turnover battle, ranking 29th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense and sixth in turnovers forced defensively. Neither team should get many clean looks from deep, with Arkansas ranking 30th and Houston ninth in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Arkansas vs. Houston Under 145 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 136.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Colorado Buffaloes vs. Stanford Cardinal
Stanford has been elite at limiting second chances, ranking 16th in defensive rebound percentage. Colorado relies heavily on 3-point shooting, ranking 14th nationally at 39.7%, but allows opponents to shoot 43.7% from beyond the arc in road and neutral games. Stanford also has the edge in forcing turnovers, ranking 31st defensively.
Pick: Stanford +4.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Stanford -2.5)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Duke ranks 16th in points per possession offensively but has been even better defensively, leading the nation in fewest points per possession allowed. Texas Tech ranks 39th offensively but 155th defensively. Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with Duke 153rd and Texas Tech 191st in possessions per game.
Picks: Duke -8.5 and Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Duke -9.5 and Total 145.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Boise State Broncos vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Boise State ranks fourth nationally in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to grab just 21.1% of their misses. However, their 3-point defense slips on the road, where opponents shoot 35.8%. Nevada ranks 61st in 3-point shooting percentage and ninth in fewest turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Nevada +4 (Greg’s Handicap: Nevada -1)
10:30 PM Eastern
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Arizona Wildcats
San Diego State typically plays faster early in the season, but its current ranking of 88th in possessions per game should continue to drop, as the Aztecs have played significantly slower over their past three games. Arizona ranks 74th in tempo and 17th in points per possession allowed, maintaining its usual defensive efficiency under Tommy Lloyd. San Diego State ranks 22nd in turnovers forced defensively and fifth nationally in 3-point shooting at 41.3%.
Picks: San Diego State +14.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: San Diego State +11.5 and Total 151.5)
