College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, December 6.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans
Duke leads the country in points per possession allowed while Michigan State ranks 13th in this category. Neither team is pushing tempo, with Duke 194th in possessions per game and Michigan State 313th. Duke is also seventh in the nation in points per possession in games played away from home, and Michigan State has heated up from 3-point range, making 42% of their 3’s the past three games after shooting 29.2% across their first five.
Pick: Duke -1.5 and Over 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Duke -2.5, Total 140.5)
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Iowa State leads the country in points per possession on offense and Purdue is second, but Iowa State is also 11th in points per possession allowed. They face a slow-tempo Purdue team ranked 296th in total possessions per game. Iowa State guard Tamin Lipsey, who brings 3.2 steals per game, returned to practice Friday, boosting a defense that leads the nation in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 145.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
Maine Black Bears vs. Miami OH Red Hawks
Maine has yet to exceed 65 points in a game this season and sits 348th in points per possession while playing at a slow pace (344th in possessions per game). Miami OH is 32nd in points per possession despite falling from 15th to 92nd in 3-point shooting percentage year-over-year, though they’re playing at a moderate pace (153rd).
Pick: Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 132.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Youngstown State Penguins vs. IU Indy Jaguars
IU Indy leads the country in possessions per game and their pressure defense leaves them vulnerable to open 3’s. Youngstown State is 325th in turnovers per possession on offense, which should lead to plenty of IU Indy fast-break layups, but the Penguins are also 100th in 3-point shooting while IU Indy is 295th in opponent 3-point percentage.
Pick: Over 174 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 182)
3:00 PM Eastern
Georgia State Panthers vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Kennesaw State ranks second nationally in possessions per game and should get plenty of second-chance opportunities against a Georgia State defense ranked 316th in defensive rebound percentage. Georgia State has struggled offensively (359th in points per possession) but should improve with the return of Jakai Newton, who has scored at least 10 points in four of his last five games.
Pick: Over 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 163.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Maryland Terps vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Maryland is playing faster than a typical Buzz Williams team, ranking 67th in possessions per game, and should get a boost from Solomon Washington, who returned earlier in the week after averaging 4.7 points and 5.1 rebounds last year at Texas A&M. Iowa is playing extremely slow (362nd) but is executing at a high level, ranking 18th in points per possession and fifth in this category at home.
Pick: Maryland +13.5 and Over 137.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Maryland +11.5, Total 141.5)
Evansville Purple Aces vs. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky is playing fast (10th in possessions per game) and should exploit an Evansville team ranked 287th in points per possession allowed and 275th in opponent 2-point percentage. Western Kentucky is also 33rd nationally in percentage of shots taken inside the arc.
Pick: Western Kentucky -11.5 and Over 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Western Kentucky -13.5, Total 153.5)
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Michigan Wolverines
Michigan dominated in Las Vegas with 30-point wins over San Diego State, Auburn, and Gonzaga, but they now face a slow-paced Rutgers team ranked 307th in possessions per game. Rutgers is also locking down the paint, ranking 27th nationally in opponent 2-point percentage.
Pick: Rutgers +22.5 and Over 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Rutgers +?, Total 152.5)
Fresno State Bulldogs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Arkansas ranks 71st in possessions per game and is one of the most efficient offenses in the country (41st in points per possession). Fresno State has been strong away from home (81st in points per possession in road/neutral games), and their opponent 3-point shooting percentage allowed (25.2%) is due for heavy regression.
Pick: Over 155 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 162)
Elon Phoenix vs. Wofford Terriers
Elon has sped up their tempo (85th in possessions per game) and has been highly efficient away from home, ranking 21st in points per possession. Both teams should get clean looks with Wofford 321st and Elon 319th in turnovers forced per possession. Defensive struggles are present on both sides, but Elon is also grabbing 37.2% of their missed shots, 23rd in the nation.
Pick: Elon +4.5 and Over 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Elon -1.5, Total 163.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Ohio Bobcats
Marshall should exploit an Ohio defense ranked 296th in points per possession allowed and 330th or worse in 3-point defense for a second straight season. Ohio regains UNC Greensboro transfer Jalen Breath, improving their interior offense and rebounding. Ohio’s 27% 3-point shooting should regress positively against a Marshall defense ranked 182nd in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 162)
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Strong tempo contrast: Seton Hall is 347th in possessions per game while Kansas State is 50th. Seton Hall is 26th in points per possession allowed; Kansas State is 211th. Kansas State has struggled with turnovers (206th) while Seton Hall is elite defensively (8th in turnovers forced per possession).
Pick: Seton Hall +3.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Seton Hall -1, Total 143)
6:00 PM Eastern
Denver Pioneers vs. Idaho State Bengals
Denver should see positive regression after opponents hit 41.7% of their 3’s against them. Idaho State shoots just 31.6% from deep and both teams play slow, with Denver 250th and Idaho State 338th in possessions per game. Denver also ranks 130th in points per possession.
Pick: Denver +7.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Denver +3)
9:00 PM Eastern
Santa Clara Broncos vs. New Mexico Lobos
Santa Clara has slowed their pace this season (220th) and faces a New Mexico team elite at generating turnovers (34th). Santa Clara counters with a defense that ranks 52nd in points per possession allowed, 50th in opponent 3-point percentage, and 40th in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Under 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 146.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Both teams are mid-tempo squads with Oklahoma 177th in possessions per game and Arizona State 156th. Oklahoma’s defensive efficiency continues to improve after opponents shot 35.9% from 3 over the first five games (they ranked 17th in opponent 3-point percentage last season). They’ve held their past four opponents to 74 points or fewer. Arizona State is 90th in points per possession and 32nd in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Oklahoma -3.5 and Under 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap Oklahoma -7 and Total 151)
12:00 AM Eastern (Midnight)
CS Fullerton Titans vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
CS Fullerton has greatly improved their offensive efficiency by limiting turnovers (54th), while Hawaii has been sloppy, ranking 311th in turnovers per possession. Fullerton is also preventing second chances, ranking 10th in defensive rebound percentage with opponents grabbing just 21% of their misses.
Pick: CS Fullerton +16.5 and Under 160 (Greg’s Handicap: CS Fullerton +9.5, Total 153.5)
