College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, January 3.
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Here’s the cleaned-up version with spelling and grammar edited, the same voice preserved, games grouped by start time, and Pick: used consistently.
12:00 PM Eastern
Providence Friars vs. St. John’s Red Storm
Both teams are playing at a fast pace, with St. John’s ranking 34th in possessions per game and Providence 13th. Defensively, St. John’s is much stronger at home, ranking 24th in points per possession allowed, while Providence ranks just 229th in that category. Providence is also only 200th in offensive rebound percentage, compared to St. John’s ranking 26th, giving the Red Storm a clear edge on second chances.
Pick: St. John’s -11.5 and Under 170.5
(Greg’s Handicap: St. John’s -15 and Total 165)
1:00 PM Eastern
Southern Miss Eagles vs. Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns
Louisiana has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 346th in points per possession while also averaging the fewest possessions per game in the nation. They face a Southern Miss team with a significant advantage on the glass, ranking 40th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, while Louisiana ranks just 290th in that category.
Pick: Southern Miss -4.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Southern Miss -10.5)
1:30 PM Eastern
BYU Cougars vs. Kansas State Wildcats
BYU gets plenty of attention for an offense that ranks 24th nationally in points per possession, but they are even better defensively, ranking 21st in points per possession allowed. BYU also protects the ball well, ranking 29th in turnovers per possession on offense, while Kansas State ranks 265th in that category.
Pick: BYU vs. Kansas State Under 172.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 165.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Kansas Jayhawks vs. Central Florida Knights
Without Darryn Peterson, Kansas has played slower and placed a greater emphasis on defense, ranking 17th nationally in points per possession allowed while sitting 268th in possessions per game. Central Florida has also slowed down to 97th in possessions per game after ranking fifth last season. UCF’s strength is 3-point shooting, ranking 11th at 39.8%, but they face a Kansas defense that ranks second nationally in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 25.4%.
Pick: Kansas vs. Central Florida Under 153.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 147)
Baylor Bears vs. TCU Horned Frogs
Baylor is dealing with depth issues, as only one player logged more than 11 minutes off the bench in their 124–61 win over non-Division I Arlington Baptist. That could lead to a slower pace than their current ranking of 60th in possessions per game. Baylor has allowed 67 points or fewer in each of its past four games. TCU ranks 15th in points per possession and 13th in turnovers per possession forced on defense while playing at a mid-tempo pace, ranking 187th in possessions per game.
Pick: Baylor vs. TCU Under 156.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 149.5)
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
Vanderbilt is dealing with an injury to top defender Frankie Collins, whose 2.4 steals per game are a major reason the Commodores rank 17th in points per possession allowed and 23rd in turnovers per possession generated away from home. South Carolina doesn’t apply much ball pressure, ranking 310th in turnovers per possession, but is strong defensively inside and out, ranking 75th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and 23rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. That should slow a Vanderbilt offense that ranks 31st in road 3-point shooting percentage at 39%.
Pick: Vanderbilt vs. South Carolina Under 155.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 149.5)
2:15 PM Eastern
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. SMU Mustangs
North Carolina has slowed its tempo compared to past seasons, ranking 199th in possessions per game, but plays clean offensively, ranking 27th in fewest turnovers per possession. Defensively, however, the Tar Heels rank 350th in turnovers forced. SMU plays fast, ranking 16th in possessions per game, and ranks 142nd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Second-chance opportunities should be plentiful, as North Carolina ranks 36th in offensive rebound percentage on the road, while SMU ranks 61st overall.
Pick: North Carolina vs. SMU Over 153.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 157.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
James Madison Dukes vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State plays fast, ranking 45th in possessions per game, while James Madison ranks 241st. Arkansas State is just 215th in points per possession at home and ranks 326th in turnovers per possession. James Madison ranks 36th in blocked shot percentage and faces an Arkansas State defense that allows opponents to shoot just 21.7% from 3-point range at home, which ranks fifth nationally.
Pick: James Madison +8.5 and Under 160.5
(Greg’s Handicap: James Madison +5.5 and Total 155.5)
4:30 PM Eastern
Eastern Illinois Panthers vs. UT Martin Skyhawks
Both teams have dealt with injuries that have led to sloppy guard play, with UT Martin ranking 339th in turnovers per possession and Eastern Illinois 327th. Despite that, UT Martin remains a solid defensive team, ranking 105th in points per possession allowed overall and 43rd at home. Eastern Illinois ranks 288th in points per possession allowed and is getting crushed on the glass, ranking 346th in rebound percentage, while UT Martin ranks 117th.
Pick: UT Martin -9.5
(Greg’s Handicap: UT Martin -15)
6:00 PM Eastern
Monmouth Hawks vs. Towson Tigers
Towson ranks 46th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 30% and plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 359th in possessions per game. The Tigers have also struggled shooting from deep, ranking 360th at 26%. Monmouth ranks 291st in 2-point shooting percentage, 282nd in possessions per game, and 20th in blocked shot percentage.
Pick: Towson -8 and Under 136.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Towson -11.5 and Total 131.5)
Portland State Vikings vs. Idaho State Bengals
Idaho State has been slow but efficient on offense, ranking 297th in possessions per game while sitting 25th in points per possession at home. Portland State wants to play faster, ranking 74th in possessions per game, but has been careless with the ball, ranking 295th in turnovers per possession. Both teams defend the perimeter well, with Idaho State ranking 19th and Portland State 36th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Idaho State -2.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Idaho State -5.5)
6:30 PM Eastern
Alabama A&M Bulldogs vs. Arkansas–Pine Bluff Golden Lions
The raw numbers look ugly for Arkansas–Pine Bluff, as they rank 335th in points per possession on offense and 357th in points per possession allowed on defense. However, much of that is due to a brutal schedule, as this is their first home game against a Division I opponent. They face an Alabama A&M team that ranks 353rd in points per possession in road games.
Pick: Arkansas–Pine Bluff +2 and Over 146
(Greg’s Handicap: Arkansas–Pine Bluff -2.5 and Total 150.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Illinois has a major edge on the glass, ranking eighth nationally in rebound percentage, while Penn State ranks 224th. Penn State should still get clean scoring opportunities, ranking 13th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense, while Illinois ranks 362nd in turnovers per possession. Defensively, Penn State ranks 31st in turnovers per possession forced and plays at a slow tempo, ranking 274th in possessions per game.
Pick: Penn State +17.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Penn State +13.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Purdue leads the nation in points per possession in road and neutral-site games but plays at a very slow pace, ranking 326th in possessions per game away from home. Purdue also ranks 27th in defensive rebound percentage on the road, allowing opponents to grab just 23.9% of missed shots. Wisconsin ranks 91st in points per possession allowed overall but allows 21.2 fewer points per 100 possessions at home than on the road.
Pick: Purdue vs. Wisconsin Under 151.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 146.5)
