College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, January 31.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Texas Tech vs. Central Florida
Central Florida has thrived on getting second chances to score, ranking 19th in offensive rebound percentage at home with 38.7% of their missed shots becoming an offensive rebound, while Texas Tech is 132nd in defensive rebound percentage and also 132nd overall in points per possession allowed, while Central Florida is also 21st in 3-point shooting percentage at 38%.
Pick: Central Florida +5 (Greg’s Handicap Central Florida -1.5)
Duke Blue Devils vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Duke has a big edge on the glass, ranking seventh in the nation in rebound percentage while Virginia Tech ranked 187th, but Virginia Tech has back leading rebounder Toibu Lawal and Virginia Tech has had good perimeter play, ranking 30th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense and on defense are 19th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage age 29.7%, which goes down to 27% at home.
Pick: Virginia Tech +12 (Greg’s Handicap Virginia Tech +7.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
San Diego State Aztecs vs. Utah State Aggies
Both teams have excelled at generating turnovers. San Diego State is 17th in the country in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Utah State is even better, ranking eighth. While San Diego State is overall 83rd in possessions per game, that is a warped stat due to a double overtime game at home against Troy and a triple overtime home game against Boise State, as they rank 232nd in possessions per game in games played away from home with those overtime games factored out. Utah State is 230th in total possessions per game.
Pick: San Diego State vs. Utah State Under 146 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 143.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Georgia Tech has failed to get going on offense this season, ranking 268th in points per possession on offense. The defense has been solid as they are 52nd in points per possession allowed. The North Carolina defense has been even more efficient, ranking 41st in points per possession allowed, despite generating few turnovers this season; it ranks 345th in turnovers per possession. They have slowed down from past seasons, ranking 145th in possessions per game, and their defense gets further help from Georgia Tech, which is naturally careless with the ball, ranking 318th in turnovers per possession at home.
Pick: North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech Under 157.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 151)
East Tennessee Buccaneers vs. Wofford Terriers
The Wofford defense has had leaks all season long, ranking 305th in points per possession allowed at home and are at a big disadvantage in the turnover department. East Tennessee is 50th in turnovers per possession generated. Wofford is 271st and Wofford’s offense has been helped by the team ranking 132nd in offensive rebound percentage and much of that gets mitigated by East Tennessee’s ranking 46th in defensive rebound percentage, with only 25% of opponents’ missed shots becoming an offensive rebound. Wofford’s 3-point shooting dips from 37% away from home to 32.2% at home.
Picks: East Tennessee -1.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap East Tennessee -5.5 and Total 145.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
High Point Panthers vs. Longwood Lancers
High Point should have a large edge in the turnover department, as Longwood ranks 331st in turnovers per possession on offense. High Point is third in fewest turnovers per possession on offense. On defense, the team is 14th in turnovers per possession generated. The High Point offense has been one of the most efficient in America, ranking 14th in points per possession while playing at a fast pace, ranking 82nd in possessions per game. Longwood has struggled with their perimeter shooting all season, ranking 336th in 3-point shooting percentage at 29.9%.
Picks: High Point -10.5 and Over 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap High Point -12.5 and Total 162.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Evansville Purple Aces vs. Northern Iowa Panthers
Evanville is missing their leader in points and rebounds, Connor Turnbull, from a team that is 342nd in both points per possession and turnovers per possession, while Northern Iowa slows things down, ranking 358th in possessions per game. They are second in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 26.7%.
Picks: Northern Iowa -10.5 and Under 128.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Iowa -15.5 and Total 125.5)
Little Rock Trojans vs. Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
Little Rock is not doing the little things to win games, ranking 341st in turnovers per possession on offense and 338th in road free throw shooting percentage at 65.1%, which gets compounded by ranking 271st in points per possession allowed on defense. Tennessee Tech is 317th in turnovers per possession on offense. Little Rock will give Tennessee Tech plenty of second chances to score as they allow opponents to grab 34.2% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound, which is 340th in the nation.
Pick: Tennessee Tech +2 (Greg’s Handicap Tennessee Tech -2)
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. Long Beach State 49ers
Hawaii is second in the country in points per possession allowed on defense, while Long Beach State is 136th, but Hawaii is just 169th in points per possession and 319th in turnovers per possession. Long Beach State is 228th in turnovers per possession and 278th in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.7%.
Pick: Hawaii vs. Long Beach State Under 146.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141.5)
4:30 PM Eastern
BYU Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Freshman sensation Darryn Peterson is expected to play in this game for Kansas, but may not be at 100% for a Kansas team whose strength has been defense, ranking ninth in points per possession allowed. They play at a pretty controlled pace, ranking 226th in possessions per game. Kansas faces a BYU team that is one of the most balanced in America, as they are 24th in America in points per possession scored on offense and 26th in points per possession allowed on defense. They should limit a Kansas offense that is 77th in points per possession on offense and isn’t getting second chances to score, checking in at 207th in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: BYU +4.5 and Under 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap BYU +1 and Total 153)
6:00 PM Eastern
Stanford Cardinal vs. Florida State Seminoles
Stanford ranks overall 145th in points per possession on offense, but that goes to 95th in a road or neutral court game. They partially mitigate Florida State’s defensive strength of generating turnovers as Stanford is 64th in turnovers per possession generated on defense while Florida State ranks 32nd. Florida State is looking to take tons of 3-point shots with 51.1% of their field goal attempts coming from 3-point range, which is the 11th-highest percentage in America. Stanford is 112th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 32.8%. They will get plenty of second chances to score with the team rebounding 35.6% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound away from home, which ranks 16th in the country.
Picks: Stanford +2.5 and Over 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap Stanford -4 and Total 156)
Oregon State Beavers vs. San Diego Toreros
Both teams have struggled on the glass as Oregon State is 299th in rebound percentage and San Diego is 341, but San Diego is 26th in turnovers per possession generated at home while Oregon State is 272nd in turnover per possession generated on defense and on offense are 253rd in turnovers per possession on offense and their 3-point shooting percentage go from 35.9% at home to 32.1% away from home.
Picks: San Diego -2 and Under 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap San Diego -5 and Total 145)
10:00 PM Eastern
Pacific Tigers vs. San Francisco Dons
Pacific is having a tough time taking care of the ball, ranking 347th in turnovers per possession. San Francisco is 348th in turnover generated per possession on defense and are looking to slow games down, ranking 269th in possessions per game. They are unlikely to get many second chances to score against a Pacific group that is sixth in defensive rebound percentage, with opponents rebounding 21.7% of their missed shots as an offensive rebound.
Pick: Pacific vs. San Francisco Under 139 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 137)
10:30 PM Eastern
St. Mary’s Gaels vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
While forward and top rebounder Graham Ike is expected to play for Gonzaga, he’s unlikely to be 100%. St. Mary’s is back to playing a slow defense that centers around strong defense, ranking 28th in points per possession allowed and 311th in possessions per game, while Gonzaga’s strength this season has been on defense, as they lead the nation in points per possession allowed. Their offense is down to 42nd in points per possession at home.
Picks: St. Mary’s +10.5 and Under 147.5(Greg’s Handicap St. Mary’s +7.5 and Total 143.5)
