College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, March 21.
Check out Greg’s Daily College Basketball Lines and his Coast 2 Coast Hoops Podcast. Also, check out our College Basketball Betting Splits and become a VSiN Pro Subscriber.
12:10 PM Eastern
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines
Saint Louis is one of the most balanced teams in the nation, with eight different players averaging at least 6.7 points per game. That depth has fueled a unit that ranks 11th in points per possession on offense and 19th in points per possession allowed on defense. The biggest weakness is ball security, as they rank 231st in turnovers per possession on offense. While Michigan is 8th in points per possession allowed on defense, they are just 266th in turnovers per possession forced. Saint Louis also ranks 2nd in the nation in 3-point shooting percentage at 40.2%.
Pick: Saint Louis +12.5
Greg’s Handicap: Saint Louis +11
5:15 PM Eastern
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Duke Blue Devils
Duke has been dominant on defense, ranking 2nd in the nation in points per possession allowed. TCU has struggled to shoot efficiently, ranking 122nd in points per possession, with its strength coming on the glass (65th in offensive rebound percentage). However, Duke allows opponents to grab just 22.8% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds (7th nationally) and plays at a slow tempo, ranking 281st in possessions per game. TCU also ranks 37th in turnovers per possession, which could limit scoring opportunities in a slower game.
Pick: Under 139.5
Greg’s Handicap: Total 137.5
6:10 PM Eastern
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Houston Cougars
Texas A&M has played strong perimeter defense away from home, allowing teams to shoot just 28.9% from 3-point range in road or neutral settings (6th nationally). Houston has allowed more second-chance opportunities than in past seasons, with opponents grabbing 27.2% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds (131st). The Cougars compensate by winning the turnover battle, ranking 14th in turnovers forced on defense and 4th in fewest turnovers committed on offense, while Texas A&M ranks 51st in that same offensive category.
Pick: Texas A&M +11 and Over 142
Greg’s Handicap: Texas A&M +9.5 and Total 143.5
7:00 PM Eastern
Dayton Flyers vs. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Dayton has been excellent at generating turnovers, ranking 10th in turnovers per possession on defense, but faces a UNC Wilmington team that takes great care of the ball (56th in turnovers per possession on offense). UNC Wilmington also has a major edge on the glass, grabbing 34.7% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds (23rd nationally), while Dayton ranks 288th in that category. Dayton has also struggled to defend the perimeter away from home, ranking 333rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 37.8%.
Pick: UNC Wilmington +2.5 and Over 137.5
Greg’s Handicap: UNC Wilmington -3 and Total 141
7:10 PM Eastern
Texas Longhorns vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
This is a major mismatch on the defensive end. Texas entered the NCAA Tournament ranked 346th in points per possession allowed away from home and 361st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage away from home (40.5%). Gonzaga leads the nation in fewest points per possession allowed on defense and, despite ranking 197th in 3-point shooting percentage (33.5%), still ranks 6th in points per possession on offense. The Bulldogs also play at a moderate tempo, ranking 93rd in possessions per game.
Pick: Gonzaga -5.5 and Over 147.5
Greg’s Handicap: Gonzaga -7.5 and Total 150.5
7:50 PM Eastern
VCU Rams vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois leads the country in points per possession on offense, but plays at a slow tempo, ranking 283rd in possessions per game. They also rank dead last (365th out of 365 teams) in turnovers per possession forced on defense. VCU can capitalize with its perimeter shooting, ranking 30th in 3-point shooting percentage (36.9%), while also playing solid defense, ranking 43rd in points per possession allowed in games played away from home.
Pick: VCU +11.5
Greg’s Handicap: VCU +10
8:45 PM Eastern
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Vanderbilt has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, ranking 10th in points per possession while also excelling in the little things—14th in turnovers per possession and 3rd in free-throw shooting percentage away from home (80.8%). Nebraska takes 51.1% of its field goal attempts from 3-point range (9th-highest in the nation), but Vanderbilt holds opponents to 32.3% from deep (76th nationally).
Pick: Vanderbilt -1.5 and Over 146.5
Greg’s Handicap: Vanderbilt -5 and Total 151
9:00 PM Eastern
Liberty Flames vs. Nevada Wolf Pack
Liberty plays at an extremely slow tempo, ranking 342nd in possessions per game, but their games feature plenty of made 3-pointers. They rank 5th in 3-point shooting percentage (39.1%) while allowing opponents to shoot 38.1% from deep (359th). Nevada shoots well from the outside (52nd at 36.1%), but faces a major disadvantage inside, with Liberty ranking 6th in 2-point shooting percentage while Nevada sits 312th.
Pick: Liberty +7.5
Greg’s Handicap: Liberty +6
9:45 PM Eastern
High Point Panthers vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Both teams do a great job of protecting the ball, with High Point ranking 5th in turnovers per possession on offense and Arkansas ranking 1st. However, High Point is far better defensively at generating turnovers, ranking 5th in turnovers forced, while Arkansas ranks 237th. High Point should also be able to find success inside, ranking 37th in 2-point shooting percentage, while Arkansas ranks 264th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: High Point +11.5
Greg’s Handicap: High Point +9.5
