College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Saturday, November 15.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Ohio Bobcats vs. Louisville Cardinals
Ohio last season had a tough time guarding the 3-point arc, ranking 339th with opponents shooting 37.6% against them, but a noon Eastern tip should help, and the team’s defense looked improved in their 72–68 win last week against Illinois State. While the Louisville offense has been prolific—ranking 15th in points per possession with at least 96 points in each of their first three games—the defense has been solid as well, ranking 29th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Ohio +30.5 and Under 175.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Ohio +23.5, Total 165.5)
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Virginia Cavaliers
Marshall improved their low-post play in the offseason with the addition of 7-foot-4 Matthew Van Komen, who at Elon last season averaged six points, 7.9 rebounds, and 2.3 blocks per game. That size should disrupt a Virginia team that has dominated down low, ranking ninth in rebound percentage, but has played teams lacking size in Rider, NC Central, and Hampton.
Picks: Marshall +20.5 and Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Marshall +14.5, Total 150.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Cleveland State Vikings
This neutral-court game at Greenbrier Colonial Hall should control the scoring and affect sight lines. Cleveland State ranks just 200th in points per possession under new coach Ron Summers, and while they’ve struggled defensively—allowing over 90 points in both Division I games—they face a Kent State team traditionally built on defense. Kent State should see regression from their 43.7% 3-point shooting after shooting just 31.2% last season, which ranked 313th nationally, despite being 53rd in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Cleveland State +10 and Under 165.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Cleveland State +6, Total 156)
2:00 PM Eastern
Butler Bulldogs vs. SMU Mustangs
Butler’s 99.3 points per game and massive rebound margin—60 more rebounds than opponents through three games—are skewed by playing an IU Indy team running one of the most press-heavy systems ever at a Loyola Marymount-level tempo. SMU, in reality, plays closer to mid-tempo and held Chicago State to 66 points and Southern Indiana to 58. That should be enough to slow down an SMU team that ranks 65th in points per possession and heavily relies on free throws, with 30.3% of their points coming at the line, the 12th-highest rate nationally.
Pick: Under 169.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 159)
Princeton Tigers vs. Kansas Jayhawks
This is not the same Princeton team as years past, with the departure of their top three scorers, including point guard Xaivian Lee, whose facilitator role has yet to be replaced. Kansas’ metrics may not look as pretty as other top teams right now, but that’s largely due to passing up a buy game to play North Carolina on the road. Against overmatched opponents, they beat Texas A&M–Corpus Christi 77–46 and Green Bay 94–51, and they’ve held opponents to just 23.6% shooting from three. That’s a major problem for Princeton, who last season got 42.8% of their points from made threes, the third-highest percentage in the nation—even accounting for Darryn Peterson’s injury.
Pick: Kansas -23.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Kansas -29.5)
3:30 PM Eastern
Syracuse Orange vs. Drexel Dragons
This neutral-site game at Xfinity Mobile Arena should affect shooting sight lines. Drexel will look to do what they always do under Zach Spiker: play slow and defend. They lost four of their top five scorers from a unit that ranked 340th in possessions per game last season. Syracuse’s top returning scorer, JJ Starling, is dealing with injury, which has slowed their tempo (232nd in possessions per game entering Friday). The defense, albeit in a small sample, leads the country in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Drexel +14.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Drexel +11, Total 139)
4:00 PM Eastern
Idaho Vandals vs. UC San Diego Tritons
Idaho returns much of last year’s roster, but the early results show little defensive improvement from a squad that ranked 315th in turnovers forced per possession and 344th in defensive points per possession. UC San Diego should dominate the turnover battle after promoting key assistant Clint Allard, coming from a team that ranked third in defensive points per possession, fourth in turnovers forced, and fifth in fewest turnovers committed. Idaho is averaging 14.3 turnovers per game.
Picks: UC San Diego -7.5 and Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UC San Diego -11.5, Total 145.5)
5:00 PM Eastern
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
North Dakota ranked 355th in points per possession allowed last season and, though slightly better at 277th entering Friday, still struggles—compounded by an offense that has regressed, ranking 249th in points per possession and shooting just 65.1% at the free throw line. UC Riverside, under first-year coach Gus Argenal (whose Cal State Bernardino team forced 15.9 turnovers per game), is shooting 38.7% from three while holding opponents to 27.5% from deep across three games.
Picks: UC Riverside -5.5 and Over 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UC Riverside -13, Total 153)
5:30 PM Eastern
Nicholls Colonels vs. Murray State Racers
Nicholls has struggled offensively since losing their top four scorers, averaging just 57 points per game while shooting 25% from three and 62.9% from the line. Murray State ranks eighth in defensive points per possession at home in this small sample and is playing uptempo (16th in possessions per game), but could be slowed by a Nicholls team ranked 276th in pace.
Pick: Under 163 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 147)
6:00 PM Eastern
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. George Washington Revolutionaries
Old Dominion will rely on their rebounding to hang with a George Washington team that has impressed early, ranking top-60 in both offensive and defensive points per possession. ODU ranked 21st nationally in offensive rebound rate last season, which helps offset their 28.3% 3-point shooting (360th).
Picks: Old Dominion +15.5 and Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Old Dominion +13, Total 147)
7:00 PM Eastern
BYU Cougars vs. Connecticut Huskies
While the offense featuring freshmen AJ Dybantsa and high-priced transfer Robert Wright gets attention, BYU has played every game to the under this season. They face a Connecticut team that is consistently one of the slowest in the nation—259th in possessions per game entering Friday after ranking 321st last year with much of the same roster.
Pick: Under 154.5 (Greg’s Handicap: 146.5)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Oklahoma has sped up compared to previous seasons, ranking 123rd in possessions per game, but now faces a Nebraska defense that has impressed early, ranking 10th in points per possession allowed. Nebraska’s pace has dropped to 201st, on track to be the slowest in the Fred Hoiberg era. With this being a neutral-site game at the Sanford Pentagon and Oklahoma ranking 17th in opponent 3-point percentage last season, possessions should be limited.
Pick: Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap: 153.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Oral Roberts Eagles vs. Belmont Bruins
Oral Roberts looks revamped under new coach Kory Barnett, formerly a key assistant on a West Virginia staff that ranked 18th in defensive points per possession last season. Belmont appears improved on defense from last year, ranking 93rd in points per possession allowed after finishing 262nd a season ago.
Pick: Under 172 (Greg’s Handicap: 164.5)
