College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Sunday, December 7.
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1:00 PM Eastern
Fairfield Stags vs. Merrimack Warriors
Fairfield ranks 206th in the country in points per possession on offense with a unit that frankly can’t shoot very well, sitting outside the top 240 in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage. Merrimack, prior to this season, had never finished outside the top 41 in turnovers forced per possession since joining Division I, and though the Warriors currently rank 57th in this department, they forced a combined 48 turnovers against Hofstra, Rider, and La Salle.
Pick: Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 137)
2:00 PM Eastern
Niagara Purple Eagles vs. St. Peter’s Peacocks
Both teams are struggling to defend the 3-point line, with St. Peter’s 329th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 38.9% and Niagara 320th at 38%. St. Peter’s has been the better offense, with Niagara 329th in points per possession while St. Peter’s is 266th and ranks 103rd in offensive rebound percentage. Niagara sits 361st in that category, and in a tight game St. Peter’s holds an edge by being tied for seventh nationally in free-throw shooting percentage at 81.4%.
Pick: St. Peter’s -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap St. Peter’s -10.5)
Rider Broncos vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats
The Rider offense simply is not putting points on the board, ranking 363rd in points per possession with a 3-point shooting percentage of 25%, and they’re not playing fast, ranking 265th in possessions per game. Quinnipiac is 231st in home possessions per game among the 339 teams with at least one Division I home game, and they should dominate the turnover battle with Rider 355th in turnovers committed per possession and 361st in turnovers generated per possession on defense.
Pick: Quinnipiac -14.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Quinnipiac -17.5 and Total 145.5)
UT San Antonio Roadrunners vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
UT San Antonio is playing much more slowly this year under coach Austin Claunch, a former Nate Oats assistant, ranking 202nd in possessions per game after ranking 92nd last season. Alabama is still playing very fast, sitting 15th in possessions per game, and allows opponents to set up clean looks, ranking 356th in turnovers forced per possession and 181st in points per possession allowed. UTSA should also see improvement from their current 27.9% 3-point shooting.
Pick: UT San Antonio +33.5 and Over 166.5 (Greg’s Handicap UT San Antonio +27.5 and Total 171.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
Alabama State Hornets vs. UT Martin Skyhawks
UT Martin’s biggest issue is turnovers, ranking 358th in turnovers per possession on offense, but they face an Alabama State team that has fallen from fourth in fewest turnovers per possession on offense last year to 192nd this season. UT Martin’s size along the perimeter has helped them become one of the nation’s best 3-point defenses, ranking 24th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 27.7%, while Alabama State is allowing teams to shoot 37.1% from deep, ranking 306th.
Pick: UT Martin -4.5 and Over 144 (Greg’s Handicap UT Martin -11 and Total 149)
4:30 PM Eastern
Belmont Bruins vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
Belmont ranks 67th in possessions per game and has a high-powered offense that’s 72nd in points per possession, but they struggle taking care of the ball, ranking 302nd in turnovers per possession. Both teams should see regression in their 3-point shooting defenses: Belmont is 15th in opponent 3-point shooting away from home at 24.8%, while Middle Tennessee is 41st overall at 28.9% and 23.1% at home.
Pick: Over 152.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 157.5)
Northwestern State Demons vs. Southeast Louisiana Tigers
Northwestern State ranks 359th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 41.3%, which should improve, as should Southeast Louisiana’s poor 3-point offense, which ranks 359th at 24.9%. Northwestern State has been getting crushed on the glass, ranking 360th in rebound percentage, but should improve with the return of Willie Williams, who missed the first seven games and already has 14 rebounds in two games. No other player on the roster averages more than four rebounds per game, while Southeast Louisiana ranks 332nd in points per possession.
Pick: Northwestern State +8.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northwestern State +2)
5:00 PM Eastern
Texas A&M Aggies vs. SMU Mustangs
Both teams play very fast, with Texas A&M 38th in possessions per game and SMU 24th. Texas A&M has had trouble guarding the perimeter due to their turnover-seeking defensive style, ranking 307th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 37.1% but 12th in turnovers forced per possession. SMU is 85th in fewest turnovers committed per possession and should generate extra scoring chances against a Texas A&M team allowing opponents to grab 31.6% of their missed shots in road and neutral games.
Pick: SMU +2.5 and Over 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap SMU -3.5 and Total 167.5)
Creighton Blue Jays vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
The Creighton offense has struggled, ranking 98th in points per possession, but that drops to 238th in games away from home. They are also 325th in turnovers forced per defensive play. Nebraska has strong balance, ranking 65th in points per possession on offense and 42nd on defense, and they face a Creighton team playing slower than in past seasons, sitting 257th in possessions per game.
Pick: Nebraska -4.5 and Under 152.5 (Greg’s Handicap Nebraska -7.5 and Total 147.5)
Georgetown Hoyas vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Georgetown is one of the best teams in the country at taking care of the ball, ranking third in fewest turnovers per possession. Their weakness is 3-point defense, ranking 270th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 35.8%, but North Carolina is only 236th in 3-point shooting at 31.7%. The Tar Heels are playing at a brisk but slower-than-usual pace, ranking 148th in possessions per game.
Pick: Georgetown +12 and Over 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap Georgetown +8.5 and Total 154.5)
5:30 PM Eastern
TCU Horned Frogs vs. North Texas Mean Green
TCU has been one of the strongest defensive teams in the country, ranking 25th in points per possession allowed overall and 15th in road/neutral games. North Texas plays very slowly, ranking 328th in possessions per game, and ranks 197th in points per possession—a number that has dipped since guard Will McClendon was lost for the season. They are also 257th in turnovers per possession, which is problematic against a TCU defense that ranks ninth in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: TCU -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap TCU -12)
7:00 PM Eastern
Cornell Big Red vs. Samford Bulldogs
Cornell is taking 51.4% of their shots from 3-point range—the 12th-highest rate in the nation—and is making 41% of those attempts, ranking 11th in the country. Yet they rank just 68th in points per possession due to turnovers, sitting 236th in turnovers per possession. They should have more clean possessions against a Samford team that plays turnover-light games on both sides of the ball, ranking 31st in turnovers committed and 311th in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Cornell -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Cornell -6.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
North Florida Ospreys vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga is clearly the superior team, ranking 27th in points per possession on offense and eighth on defense. North Florida, however, has enough shooting to keep this manageable, ranking 54th in overall 3-point percentage and hitting 38.2% from deep away from home, along with a decent 2-point shooting mark at 174th. Gonzaga is 163rd in 3-point shooting at 33.8%.
Pick: North Florida +44 (Greg’s Handicap North Florida +39.5)
