College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Sunday, January 4.
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12:00 PM Eastern
Richmond Spiders vs. Fordham Rams
Fordham is built around playing physical basketball at a slow pace, ranking 35th in points per possession allowed and 22nd in rebound percentage while sitting 358th in possessions per game. Richmond ranks 60th in points per possession allowed on defense and limits second chances well, ranking 52nd in road defensive rebound percentage. Fordham’s offense has struggled from deep, ranking 319th in 3-point shooting percentage at 29.4%.
Pick: Richmond vs. Fordham Under 141
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 134.5)
Creighton Bluejays vs. Seton Hall Pirates
Creighton has slowed its tempo from previous seasons, ranking 218th in possessions per game, while Seton Hall is even slower at 303rd. Seton Hall also limits possessions by forcing turnovers, ranking ninth nationally in turnovers forced per possession, which improves to third at home. The Pirates are 19th in points per possession allowed on defense and should not be under much duress offensively, as Creighton ranks 306th in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Seton Hall -2.5 and Under 140.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Seton Hall -4.5 and Total 134.5)
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Merrimack Warriors
Manhattan’s defense has been a sieve this season, ranking 324th in points per possession allowed and 349th in rebound percentage. Merrimack has been even worse on the glass, ranking 364th in rebound percentage. Offensively, Merrimack ranks just 263rd in points per possession, while Manhattan checks in at 214th.
Pick: Manhattan +6.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Manhattan +3)
1:00 PM Eastern
Sacred Heart Pioneers vs. Canisius Golden Griffins
Canisius is one of the slowest teams in the nation, ranking 362nd in possessions per game, and hasn’t taken advantage offensively, ranking 337th in points per possession. Their biggest weakness is inside, ranking 356th in 2-point shooting percentage, while also ranking 311th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Sacred Heart should generate extra scoring chances, ranking 167th in offensive rebound percentage, while Canisius ranks 242nd and is careless with the ball, sitting 353rd in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Sacred Heart -2.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Sacred Heart -6.5)
New Haven Chargers vs. Central Connecticut Blue Devils
New Haven has struggled mightily to score, ranking 360th in possessions per game and 357th in points per possession on offense. Central Connecticut ranks 84th in points per possession at home and is much stronger defending inside than outside, ranking 121st in opponent 2-point shooting percentage compared to 286th from 3-point range. That shouldn’t matter much here, as New Haven ranks 358th in 3-point shooting percentage at 26.4%.
Pick: Central Connecticut -8
(Greg’s Handicap: Central Connecticut -14.5)
2:00 PM Eastern
Fairfield Stags vs. Niagara Purple Eagles
Niagara is getting crushed on the glass, ranking 359th in offensive rebound percentage with just 19% of missed shots turning into offensive rebounds, a figure that drops to 13.8% at home. Fairfield ranks 28th in road offensive rebound percentage and is more efficient offensively away from home, ranking 102nd in points per possession. Niagara ranks 335th in points per possession overall and plays at a slow pace, ranking 348th in possessions per game.
Pick: Fairfield -4.5 and Under 139.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Fairfield -10 and Total 134)
Siena Saints vs. Rider Broncs
Both teams play at a glacial pace, with Siena ranking 338th and Rider 317th in possessions per game. Rider has been unable to make shots, ranking 364th nationally in both 2-point and 3-point shooting percentage. Siena offsets its own poor 3-point shooting at 28.2% by ranking 27th nationally in fewest points per possession allowed away from home.
Pick: Siena -10.5 and Under 135
(Greg’s Handicap: Siena -12 and Total 128)
Cleveland State Vikings vs. Purdue Fort Wayne Mastodons
Fort Wayne emphasizes winning the turnover battle, ranking 52nd in turnovers forced per possession on defense and 48th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense. They are often the weaker rebounding team, ranking 328th in offensive rebound percentage, but Cleveland State is even worse, allowing opponents to rebound 37.1% of missed shots, ranking 353rd nationally. Cleveland State also ranks 331st in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: Fort Wayne -8.5 and Over 157.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Fort Wayne -14.5 and Total 162.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Missouri State Bears
New Mexico State has played strong road defense, ranking 44th in points per possession allowed away from home. Missouri State has struggled on the glass, ranking 270th in defensive rebound percentage, while opponents grab 31.4% of missed shots as offensive rebounds. Missouri State’s shooting has also dipped, ranking 345th in 3-point shooting percentage at 28.1%. Both teams play slowly, with New Mexico State ranking 251st and Missouri State 336th in possessions per game.
Pick: New Mexico State -1.5 and Under 136.5
(Greg’s Handicap: New Mexico State -7 and Total 131)
Indiana State Sycamores vs. Drake Bulldogs
Drake has done a much better job keeping possessions clean, ranking 22nd in fewest turnovers per possession and 118th in points per possession. Indiana State ranks 278th in points per possession and 230th in turnovers per possession, while also allowing plenty of second chances, ranking 308th in defensive rebound percentage in road games.
Pick: Drake -5.5
(Greg’s Handicap: Drake -9.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. St. Francis (PA) Red Flash
Both teams have struggled defensively, with Fairleigh Dickinson ranking 331st and St. Francis PA 354th in points per possession allowed. St. Francis has increased its tempo, ranking 107th in possessions per game, and both teams have been torched from the perimeter, with St. Francis ranking 364th and Fairleigh Dickinson 348th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. St. Francis should win the turnover battle, ranking 71st in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: St. Francis PA +2.5 and Over 145.5
(Greg’s Handicap: St. Francis PA -1.5 and Total 155.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga has been more efficient defensively than offensively this season, ranking 14th in points per possession allowed and improving to second in home games, while ranking 19th offensively. Loyola Marymount ranks 60th in points per possession, which jumps to 26th in road games, and plays at a moderate pace, ranking 213th in possessions per game. The Lions also rank 19th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, while Gonzaga ranks 20th nationally in highest percentage of shots taken from 2-point range at 69.5%.
Pick: Loyola Marymount vs. Gonzaga Under 154.5
(Greg’s Handicap Total: 148.5)
