College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, December 11.
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6:30 PM Eastern
UW Green Bay Phoenix vs. IU Indianapolis Jaguars
These teams have opposite tempos, with UW Green Bay ranking 319th in total possessions per game while IU Indianapolis ranks second. IU Indianapolis’s biggest issue has been rebounding, sitting 356th in rebound percentage, but that gets masked by UW Green Bay being 356th in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing only 19.5% of their missed shots. IU Indianapolis should also get plenty of clean possessions against a UW Green Bay defense that is 363rd in turnovers forced per possession and 328th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: IU Indianapolis +3 and Over 166.5 (Greg’s Handicap: IU Indianapolis -1.5, Total 171.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. East Carolina Pirates
Appalachian State is playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 363rd in possessions per game, and they have the advantage around the perimeter with East Carolina ranking 322nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage after finishing 358th in that category last season. East Carolina is also just 321st in 3-point shooting percentage on offense at 28.4%. Appalachian State is 99th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage away from home and 52nd in offensive turnovers per possession, while East Carolina ranks 289th.
Picks: Appalachian State +5.5 and Over 134.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Appalachian State +1.5, Total 134.5)
Western Carolina Catamounts vs. Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech has shown some cracks in the postseason with forward Tobi Lawal missing the past four games, ranking 193rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, but Western Carolina has been even more fragile, ranking 301st in that category. That should benefit a Virginia Tech offense that ranks second in fewest turnovers per possession. Western Carolina should see positive regression from shooting just 27.6% from 3-point range, ranking 339th nationally. Both teams are playing uptempo, with Virginia Tech 107th in possessions per game and Western Carolina 72nd.
Picks: Virginia Tech -19.5 and Over 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Virginia Tech -24.5, Total 156.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros
UT Arlington is having a difficult time taking care of the ball, ranking 356th in turnovers per possession, while UT Rio Grande Valley leads the country in turnovers per possession at home with 28.7% of their possessions ending in a turnover. UT Arlington is strong on the offensive glass, ranking 39th in offensive rebound percentage at 35.8%, while UT Rio Grande Valley ranks 303rd.
Picks: UT Arlington +2.5 and Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap: UT Arlington +1.5, Total 147.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Iowa State Cyclones
Iowa State leads the country in points per possession on offense, but they face a Hawkeyes defense that is playing slow and stout, ranking 43rd in points per possession allowed and 358th in total possessions per game. Iowa State has also been strong defensively, ranking ninth in points per possession allowed. This game should feature a ton of turnovers, with Iowa State leading the country in turnovers forced per possession while Iowa ranks fourth.
Picks: Iowa +12.5 and Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Iowa +10.5, Total 140.5)
Alabama State Hornets vs. Missouri Tigers
Missouri hasn’t played as quickly as in past seasons, ranking 106th in possessions per game, but they’ve been very efficient, ranking 30th in points per possession. Alabama State has sped up to 82nd in possessions per game but is allowing opponents plenty of second-chance opportunities, ranking 304th in defensive rebound percentage with 33.7% of missed shots becoming offensive rebounds. Missouri grabs 37.5% of their own misses, ranking 20th nationally.
Pick: Missouri -22.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Missouri -24)
9:00 PM Eastern
St. Joseph’s Hawks vs. Syracuse Orange
Syracuse has excelled on defense, ranking 18th in points per possession allowed. Both teams have struggled with outside shooting—St. Joseph’s ranks 323rd at 28.3% from 3, while Syracuse is 306th at 29%. The Orange have also slowed their pace this season, ranking 206th in total possessions per game.
Pick: Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 142.5)
9:30 PM Eastern
North Dakota State Bison vs. CS Bakersfield Roadrunners
CS Bakersfield looks to pound the ball inside, ranking 13th in percentage of shots taken from 2-point range at 71.1%, but they sit 290th in overall shooting percentage. North Dakota State has fallen from leading the country in 3-point shooting percentage last season to ranking 315th this season and are 210th in points per possession overall. They have, however, improved dramatically at generating turnovers, ranking 52nd in turnovers forced per possession after finishing 362nd last season. CS Bakersfield is 331st in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Under 148.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 143.5)
