College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, December 4.
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7:00 PM Eastern
Robert Morris Colonels vs. UW Green Bay Phoenix
Things are turning around for UW Green Bay with a pair of wins over Massachusetts and Iona, even with top scorer Marcus Hall out. They face a Robert Morris group that has had difficulties taking care of the ball, ranking 310th in turnovers per possession, while UW Green Bay sits 63rd in this department and enters having scored at least 79 points in three straight games.
Picks: UW Green Bay +1.5 and Over 139 (Greg’s Handicap: UW Green Bay -2 and Total 144)
Rider Broncos vs. Merrimack Warriors
Rider’s offense has struggled in a big way, ranking 364th out of 365 Division I teams, and they now face a Merrimack defense that—prior to this season—had never finished outside the top 41 in turnovers forced per possession since joining Division I. Though the Warriors currently rank 67th in this department, generating a combined 33 turnovers against Hofstra and La Salle has their defense back on track. On offense, Merrimack gets to face a Rider defense that is 351st in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Merrimack -8 (Greg’s Handicap: Merrimack -12.5)
The Citadel Bulldogs vs. Davidson Wildcats
Both teams are playing at a very slow pace, with Davidson 323rd in total possessions per game and The Citadel 354th. The Citadel is 258th in points per possession despite taking good care of the ball (83rd in turnovers per possession) but ranks 261st or worse in 2-point, 3-point, and free throw shooting percentage. Davidson, meanwhile, is 55th in 2-point shooting and 19th in 3-point shooting.
Picks: Davidson -20.5 and Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Davidson -24 and Total 136)
Utah State Aggies vs. South Florida Bulls
South Florida is cranking up their tempo, ranking third in total possessions per game while executing well on offense, ranking 17th in points per possession in home games. Utah State has been one of the most efficient offenses away from home, ranking eighth in points per possession in road/neutral contests. Both teams should get plenty of good looks from 3-point range, as both defenses gamble for turnovers—South Florida is 33rd in turnovers forced per possession, Utah State 25th. Utah State is allowing opponents to shoot 38.2% from 3 on the road, and South Florida ranks 295th in opponent 3-point percentage with teams shooting 37% against them.
Picks: South Florida Moneyline and Over 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap: South Florida -1 and Total 167)
9:00 PM Eastern
Long Beach State 49ers vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UC Santa Barbara is back to playing at a slow pace, ranking 284th in possessions per game, but is uncharacteristically 264th in points per possession. They should see positive regression after opponents have shot 38.8% from 3 against them. They face a Long Beach State team that is 287th in points per possession on offense and 271st in turnovers per possession on offense, though the Beach are 106th in turnovers generated on defense.
Pick: Under 148 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 142.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
Cal Poly Mustangs vs. CS Fullerton Titans
Both teams are playing at a very fast pace, with Cal Poly seventh in the country in possessions per game and CS Fullerton 12th. Neither has been particularly efficient on offense—Cal Poly ranks 275th in points per possession and CS Fullerton 204th. Cal Poly is doing the better job of stealing extra possessions, ranking 211th in turnovers forced per possession, while CS Fullerton is 300th. Fullerton also isn’t generating second chances, ranking 340th in offensive rebound percentage (21.3%).
Picks: Cal Poly -1.5 and Under 175.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Cal Poly -2 and Total 168)
UC Riverside Highlanders vs. UC Irvine Anteaters
UC Riverside has had problems with interior defense, ranking 216th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, and is allowing tons of clean possessions, ranking 353rd in turnovers forced per possession. UC Irvine is playing at a moderate tempo (138th in possessions per game) and ranks 14th in the percentage of field goal attempts coming from inside the arc.
Pick: Over 140.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 145.5)
CS Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. CS Northridge Matadors
CS Bakersfield looks to pound the ball inside the arc, taking the seventh-highest percentage of 2-point shots in the country, but they are only 268th in 2-point shooting percentage. They are also allowing opponents to rebound 32.4% of their missed shots, ranking 276th nationally. CS Northridge is 56th in defensive rebound percentage. Both teams are doing an equally poor job taking care of the ball—Bakersfield ranks 327th in turnovers per possession and Northridge 328th.
Pick: CS Northridge -4.5 (Greg’s Handicap: CS Northridge -8)
12:00 AM Eastern
UC Davis Aggies vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
Hawaii is playing much faster this season, ranking 73rd in possessions per game, but has struggled to execute on offense unless getting to the line. They rank 119th in points per possession, with 26.7% of their scoring coming from free throws (13th-highest rate nationally). They are 305th in turnovers per possession, and UC Davis is 322nd, but Davis ranks 77th in turnovers forced per possession on defense.
Pick: Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 139.5)
