College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, February 12.
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6:00 PM Eastern
NJIT Highlanders vs. New Hampshire Wildcats
Both teams have struggled on offense: NJIT ranks 327th in points per possession, while New Hampshire ranks 343rd. New Hampshire has a nice edge on the glass, ranking 75th in defensive rebound percentage, while NJIT is 249th. NJIT is 109th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, but that mark goes from 43.6% at home to 53.8% away from home. It’s important in a game where neither team shoots well from 3-point range. New Hampshire is 307th in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.2%. NJIT is 287th at 31.7%.
Picks: New Hampshire -1.5 and Under 140.5 (Greg’s Handicap New Hampshire -5 and Total 137
7:00 PM Eastern
Youngstown State Penguins vs. Oakland Grizzlies
Oakland is playing at a fast pace, ranking 19th in total possessions per game at home. Youngstown State is a more mid-tempo team at 215th in possessions per game. Oakland has thrived inside, ranking 98th in 2-point shooting percentage at home, and they are 52nd in points per possession at home. Youngstown State is attempting 50.9% of their shots from 3-point range, the 15th-highest percentage in the nation. They shoot 35% from 3-point range away from home and face an Oakland defense that is 315th in points per possession allowed. On defense, Youngstown State is 250th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Oakland -4 and Over 155.5 (Greg’s Handicap Oakland -6.5 and Total 162.5)
Northern Kentucky Norse vs. IU Indy Jaguars
Both teams gamble for turnovers as Northern Kentucky is 13th in turnovers per possession generated away from home, while IU Indy is 30th in turnovers per possession generated. IU Indy gives up loads of points. They are ninth in possessions per game, but they rank 351st in points per possession allowed, 353rd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, and 355th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Northern Kentucky is 336th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, but 29th in 2-point shooting percentage on offense away from home.
Picks: Northern Kentucky -5.5 and Over 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Kentucky -8 and Total 168)
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Towson Tigers
Both teams are playing at a very slow pace. Towson is 349th in possessions per game while Stony Brook is 256th. It has been a struggle for both teams on offense as Towson is 364th out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.4%. They rank 328th in points per possession at home, while Stony Brook is 232nd in points per possession, but they are 287th in 2-point shooting percentage. They face a Towson defense that is ranking 23rd in points per possession allowed at home and are allowing teams to shoot just 29.4% from 3-point range at home.
Pick: Stony Brook vs. Towson Under 133.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 130.5)
Presbyterian Blue Hose vs. Charleston Southern Buccaneers
This will be a battle of tempos with Presbyterian 353rd in total possessions per game away from home, while Charleston Southern is 12th in possessions per game. Clean looks may be hard for Presbyterian to come by, with Charleston Southern 22nd in the nation in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and 116th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Presbyterian is 247th in points per possession, mainly due to an inability to keep possessions clean as they are 335th in turnovers per possession, and are 222nd in points per possession allowed on defense. Charleston Southern is making 37.8% of their 3-point shots at home, an issue for a Presbyterian defense that is 281st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 35.7%.
Picks: Charleston Southern -1.5 and Under 147 (Greg’s Handicap Charleston Southern -8.5 and Total 142.5)
Murray State Racers vs. Indiana State Sycamores
The Indiana State offense has struggled at home, ranking 342nd in points per possession. Murray State’s offense has thrived on the road, ranking 25th in points per possession. They are content to play at an aggressive pace, as they are 38th in possessions per game. Indiana State is 85th. They will not be putting much ball pressure on defense, as Indiana State’s offense is 310th in turnovers per possession on defense. On offense, they are 304th in turnovers per possession.
Pick: Murray State -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap Murray State -6)
Marist Red Foxes vs. Merrimack Warriors
Scoring chances will be scarce in this game as both teams play at a slow tempo. Marist ranks 302nd in total possessions per game. Merrimack is even slower at 356th with the amount of clean possessions reduced further by both teams’ ability to generate turnovers on defense. Marist is 24th in turnovers per possession and Merrimack is 46. Marist has the edge on the glass, with Merrimack 362nd out of 365 Division I teams in rebound percentage. Both teams are good at closing games at the free throw line. Merrimack is 20th in free throw shooting percentage at 77.5%, while Marist is even better, ranking fourth at 80.1%. Marist is eighth in the country in points per possession allowed on defense.
Picks: Marist +3.5 and Under 129.5 (Greg’s Handicap Marist -2.5 and Total 126.5)
Central Connecticut Blue Devils vs. New Haven Chargers
In their first season at the Division I level, New Haven has had difficulties putting points on the board. They average the fewest possessions per game among the 365 Division I schools and are 352nd in points per possession. They face a Central Connecticut team that has shot well from 3-point range, ranking 55th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.3%. While New Haven is 190th in points per possession allowed on defense, they are just 320th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at home at 37.5%. New Haven is 317th in rebound percentage, while Central Connecticut has one of the biggest improvements on defense when leaving home on defense in the country, allowing 9.2 points per 100 possessions fewer in road and neutral court games than at home.
Picks: Central Connecticut -1.5 and Under 130.5 (Greg’s Handicap Central Connecticut -7.5 and Total 127.5)
Hofstra Pride vs. Charleston Cougars
Even with the return of injured starters Connor Hickman and Colby Duggan, Charleston has remained an awful jump shooting team, ranking 354th in 3-point shooting percentage at home at 28.5%. They face a Hofstra defense that is seventh in the country in opponents 2-point shooting percentage away from home. On offense, Hofstra is 49th in points per possession away from home and 16th in 3-point shooting percentage away from home at 39.3%. They are playing at a relatively slow tempo, ranking 293rd in total possessions per game. Charleston is a slightly above-average tempo team, ranking 123rd in possessions per game.
Picks: Hofstra +1.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap Hofstra -3.5 and Total 144.5)
Fort Wayne Mastodons vs. UW Green Bay Phoenix
UW Green Bay plays at a slow tempo, ranking 326th in possessions per game. They are making the most of those possessions on offense, ranking 26th in 3-point shooting percentage at home at 39.5% and are 97th in points per possession. Both teams have been lackluster on defense. Fort Wayne ranks 301st in points per possession allowed. UW Green Bay is 354th in points per possession allowed at home, but they have a big edge on the glass with Fort Wayne last out of 365 Division I teams in rebound percentage, while UW Green Bay is 212th.
Picks: UW Green Bay -1.5 and Over 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap UW Green Bay -4.5 and Total 150.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Portland State Vikings vs. Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
While Northern Arizona is a slower tempo team tempo in terms of pace, ranking 338th in possessions per game, their games feature plenty of points. The team ranks 360th in points per possession allowed at home. On offense, they are 39th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.8%. Portland State is a middle-of-the-road offensive team, ranking 201st in points per possession and 143rd in total possessions per game. They should get more second chances than usual to score. Northern Arizona is 320th in defensive rebound percentage, with 32.3% of opponents missed shots becoming an offensive rebound.
Pick: Portland State vs. Northern Arizona Over 133 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 141.5)
Sacramento State Hornets vs. Northern Colorado Bears
Second chances to score will be hard to come by for Sacramento State. Northern Colorado ranks 13th in the nation in defensive rebound percentage, with only 23.4% of opponents’ missed shots becoming an offensive rebound. Northern Colorado has been efficient on offense, ranking 83rd in the country in points per possession on offense. Sacramento State is 221st overall, but Sacramento State’s offense has been far worse away from home, as they fall to 296th in points per possession away from home. Their 3-point shooting goes from 43.5% at home to 26.7% away from home, the biggest home and road percentage split in the country.
Pick: Northern Colorado -7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Northern Colorado -12.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Missouri State Bears
Neither team is looking to push a fast tempo. Louisiana Tech is 346th in possessions per game, while Missouri State is 250th. Both teams have been lackluster with their outside shooting. Louisiana Tech is dead last out of 365 Division I team in 3-point shooting percentage at 26.9%, which drops to 22.9% away from home. Missouri State is 275th overall at 32%, which falls to 30.5% in their home games. Louisiana Tech has made up for their rough shooting by ranking 83rd in points per possession allowed on defense. Missouri State ranks 183rd. Missouri State is at a disadvantage on the glass, ranking 216th in rebound percentage, while Louisiana Tech is 27th.
Picks: Louisiana Tech +7 and Under 136.5 (Greg’s Handicap Louisiana Tech +4.5 and Total 130.5)
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
South Alabama dares teams to beat them from 3-point range as 65.2% of opponents field goal attempts come from 3-point range. No other team has an opponent 3-point shot rate above 53.2%. Southern Mississippi is 363rd out of 365 Division I teams in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.5%. They are at a disadvantage in taking care of the ball, as South Alabama is 11th in fewest turnovers per possession on offense. Southern Mississippi is 263rd in a game that figures to be played at a slow pace, with South Alabama 291st in possessions per game.
Picks: South Alabama +2.5 and Under 138.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Alabama -2 and Total 134)
9:00 PM Eastern
Idaho State Bengals vs. Eastern Washington Eagles
Idaho State has been slow but efficient on offense, ranking 116th in points per possession and 323rd in possessions per game. Eastern Washington is 328th in points per possession allowed on defense. Idaho State has also had struggles, ranking 323rd in points per possession allowed. They are doing a better job of executing the little things, ranking 46th in 2-point shooting percentage away from home on offense. They are 215th in turnovers per possession, while Eastern Washington is 280th in turnovers per possession and are 240th overall in points per possession at home on offense.
Picks: Idaho State +4 and Over 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap Idaho State-1 and Total 151)
