College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, February 19.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Appalachian State is playing at one of the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 359th in possessions per game, and is denying teams any sort of clean looks, ranking 17th in opponent two-point shooting percentage and 50th in opponent three-point shooting percentage. Marshall has been stout inside, ranking 56th in opponent two-point shooting percentage away from home and 83rd in two-point shooting percentage on offense away from home, but is down its top post presence. Seven-foot-four Matthew Van Komen has missed every game in February thus far and has been spotted in recent weeks in a walking boot.
Picks: Appalachian State -2.5 and Under 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Appalachian State -5 and Total 137)
7:00 PM Eastern
Drexel Dragons vs. Northeastern Huskies
Drexel is one of the slowest teams in the country, ranking 333rd in possessions per game, and has a huge edge on the defensive end, ranking 85th in points per possession allowed while Northeastern is 327th. The number of scoring chances in Drexel games is reduced further by the team ranking 306th in turnovers per possession on offense. They should get help on the boards, as Northeastern allows opponents to grab an offensive rebound on 30.8% of their missed shots, which ranks 283rd nationally, and Northeastern shoots just 32.7% from three-point range at home.
Picks: Drexel +1.5 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap Drexel -2.5 and Total 136.5)
Albany Great Danes vs. NJIT Highlanders
While NJIT’s season-long metrics are not great, ranking 325th in points per possession on offense and 301st in rebound percentage, they have been a different team in conference play. Top scorer Sebastian Robinson is averaging 18.7 points per game in conference action after averaging 10 points per game in an injury-riddled non-conference schedule. Melyvin Ebonkoli, second on the team in rebounds per game and a starting forward, missed nearly all of non-conference play. Albany has struggled defensively, ranking 299th in points per possession allowed, while NJIT is 172nd. If the game is tight, Albany ranks 356th in free-throw shooting percentage at 65.6%, while NJIT is 249th at 70.4%.
Picks: NJIT -2.5 and Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap NJIT -7.5 and Total 139.5)
Monmouth Hawks vs. UNC Wilmington Seahawks
UNC Wilmington has been dominant on the boards, ranking 25th nationally in rebound percentage, while Monmouth is 229th. UNC Wilmington is also guarding the perimeter well, ranking ninth in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 29.4%. That is especially impactful considering Monmouth ranks 322nd in two-point shooting percentage. This also sets up as a slow-paced game, with Monmouth 237th in possessions per game and UNC Wilmington 323rd.
Picks: UNC Wilmington -7.5 and Under 141.5 (Greg’s Handicap UNC Wilmington -10.5 and Total 134.5)
William & Mary Tribe vs. Campbell Fighting Camels
Campbell has had a difficult time executing offensively, ranking 185th in points per possession. Their perimeter play has been shaky, as the team is making only 31.4% of its three-point shots, which ranks 297th nationally, and they are 262nd in turnovers per possession. William & Mary ranks 13th in turnovers per possession generated away from home and 55th overall in points per possession allowed away from home. While William & Mary is 20th in possessions per game, it can sometimes play too fast for its own good, ranking 268th in turnovers per possession committed away from home and 299th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: William & Mary vs. Campbell Under 170.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 164.5)
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights vs. Chicago State Cougars
Fairleigh Dickinson’s perimeter play has been suspect, ranking 345th in three-point shooting percentage at 29.6%, and they rank 320th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.6%. Chicago State ranks 33rd in turnovers per possession generated at home. Although Chicago State is 360th in two-point shooting percentage, Fairleigh Dickinson is not much better at 323rd in road games. If the game is close, Fairleigh Dickinson ranks 257th in free-throw shooting percentage at 70.2%, while Chicago State is 67th at 75.7%.
Picks: Chicago State +2.5 and Over 134.5 (Greg’s Handicap Chicago State -4 and Total 140)
8:00 PM Eastern
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Arkansas State Red Wolves
These teams are opposites in tempo, with Louisiana ranking 361st in total possessions per game while Arkansas State is 27th. However, Arkansas State is squandering many of its possessions with turnovers, ranking 340th in turnovers per possession, while Louisiana ranks 134th in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Louisiana is also 237th in turnovers per possession on offense and 330th overall in points per possession.
Pick: Louisiana vs. Arkansas State Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 138.5)
Texas State Bobcats vs. South Alabama Jaguars
Texas State looks to get the ball inside, leading the country with 75.3% of its field goal attempts coming from two-point range. That makes this an awful matchup, as South Alabama forces teams to beat them from the outside, with opponents attempting 69.2% of their field goal attempts from three-point range in home games; no other team is higher than 52.6%. South Alabama also has a big advantage in taking care of the ball, ranking eighth in turnovers per possession, while Texas State is 299th.
Picks: South Alabama -2.5 and Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Alabama -6.5 and Total 134.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
Texas Southern Tigers vs. Arkansas Pine Bluff Golden Lions
Arkansas Pine Bluff has executed well offensively, ranking 54th in points per possession in home games, while Texas Southern has had a difficult time keeping possessions clean, ranking 318th in turnovers per possession on offense. Texas Southern’s defense ranks 350th in points per possession allowed away from home. This should be a fast-paced game, as Arkansas Pine Bluff ranks 59th in possessions per game and Texas Southern 62nd.
Picks: Arkansas Pine Bluff -2.5 and Over 150.5 (Greg’s Handicap Arkansas Pine Bluff -7.5 and Total 153.5)
Prairie View Panthers vs. Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
Prairie View has done a good job generating turnovers on defense, ranking 12th in turnovers per possession generated away from home. Mississippi Valley State is struggling in nearly every aspect, ranking 364th in points per possession on offense, 359th in turnovers per possession on offense, and 361st in points per possession allowed on defense, while also having the worst home rebound percentage in the country.
Pick: Prairie View -9 (Greg’s Handicap Prairie View -13.5)
Morehead State Eagles vs. Eastern Illinois Panthers
Morehead State has a strong edge on the glass, ranking 25th in offensive rebound percentage with 34.8% of missed shots rebounded offensively, while Eastern Illinois is 292nd. Eastern Illinois has done a good job generating turnovers on defense, ranking 53rd, while Morehead State ranks 256th in turnovers per possession. Eastern Illinois ranks 351st in points per possession but should get a boost from a Morehead State team that fouls frequently, ranking 280th in opponent free-throw attempts per possession. Eastern Illinois shoots 74.4% from the free-throw line, ranking 113th.
Picks: Eastern Illinois +2.5 and Under 138 (Greg’s Handicap Eastern Illinois -2.5 and Total 134.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Idaho Vandals vs. Portland State Vikings
Portland State’s biggest issue has been turnovers, ranking 268th in turnovers per possession, but they face an Idaho defense that ranks 260th in turnovers per possession generated. Portland State has been a strong defensive team at home, ranking 41st in points per possession allowed, and has controlled the interior offensively, ranking 61st in two-point shooting percentage at home. They also rank 48th in defensive rebound percentage. Along the perimeter, Idaho ranks 262nd in opponent three-point shooting percentage, while Portland State ranks 26th at 30.2%.
Pick: Portland State -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap Portland State -8)
South Dakota Coyotes vs. Denver Pioneers
South Dakota is playing at a rapid pace, ranking 21st in possessions per game. Denver has been a good offensive team, ranking fourth nationally in home three-point shooting percentage at 43.2% and 58th in points per possession overall, but ranks 362nd in points per possession allowed at home. South Dakota shoots just 29.3% from three-point range at home (344th), but that improves to 36.3% on the road (57th).
Pick: South Dakota vs. Denver Over 161.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 166.5)
Montana Grizzlies vs. Idaho State Bengals
Montana has struggled with ball security, ranking 350th in turnovers per possession away from home, which has limited the team to 179th in points per possession despite shooting 38.3% from three-point range on the road (24th). Idaho State ranks 72nd in points per possession at home while playing at a very slow pace, ranking 315th in possessions per game. Idaho State is 98th in offensive rebound percentage, while Montana ranks 355th, with just 19.7% of missed shots rebounded offensively.
Picks: Idaho State +2.5 and Under 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Idaho State -2.5 and Total 146.5)
Tulane Green Wave vs. North Texas Mean Green
Scoring opportunities should be limited, as North Texas ranks 265th in possessions per game and has been dominant defensively on the perimeter, ranking 23rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 30.1% and sixth in turnovers per possession generated. Tulane grabs just 19.4% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds, ranking 358th in offensive rebound percentage. North Texas ranks 302nd in points per possession on offense.
Pick: Tulane vs. North Texas Under 138 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 131)
CS Northridge Matadors vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
UC Santa Barbara ranks 243rd in points per possession allowed overall but has allowed fewer than 70 points in three of its past four home games. The Gauchos do not allow second chances, with opponents grabbing just 23.2% of missed shots as offensive rebounds, ranking 13th nationally. Offensively, they make 41.6% of their three-point shots at home, ranking ninth. CS Northridge allows teams to shoot 36.7% from three-point range on the road and plays at a breakneck pace, ranking sixth in possessions per game, but ranks 260th in turnovers per possession and 352nd in free-throw shooting percentage at 65.7%.
Pick: UC Santa Barbara -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap UC Santa Barbara -8)
