College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, January 1.
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2:00 PM Eastern
Oral Roberts Golden Eagles vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks
Oral Roberts has been awful at taking care of the ball, ranking 317th in turnovers per possession, and now faces a North Dakota defense that is 272nd overall in points per possession allowed but is generating plenty of turnovers, ranking 39th in turnovers per possession. The Oral Roberts defense is 313th in both points per possession allowed and turnovers per possession and is allowing opponents to rebound 35.6% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, which ranks 338th in the nation.
Pick: North Dakota -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: North Dakota -4.5)
Jacksonville Dolphins vs. Lipscomb Bisons
Jacksonville has had offensive issues all season, ranking 298th in points per possession and 307th in turnovers per possession. Lipscomb is maximizing possessions at home, ranking 19th in fewest turnovers per possession, and defensively ranks 80th in turnovers per possession forced, while Jacksonville is only 245th in that category.
Pick: Lipscomb -11.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Lipscomb -17.5)
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Central Arkansas Bears
Florida Gulf Coast has struggled with interior defense, ranking 292nd in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which helps a Central Arkansas offense that is only 255th in 3-point shooting percentage at 31.5%. Defensively, Central Arkansas is 53rd in turnovers per possession forced at home and should slow down a Florida Gulf Coast offense that ranks 75th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36%, as Central Arkansas allows just 31.9% from 3-point range, ranking 113th nationally.
Picks: Central Arkansas +2.5 and Under 158.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Central Arkansas -2 and Total 150)
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Northern Kentucky Norse
While IU Indy is still playing fast, ranking third in total possessions per game, they have slowed recently, playing more than seven fewer possessions per game over their last five games against Division I opponents. Their games involve lots of turnovers, ranking 50th in turnovers per possession, while Northern Kentucky is even better at generating turnovers, ranking 16th in turnovers per possession on defense.
Pick: IU Indy vs. Northern Kentucky Under 177.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total: 171.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
Valparaiso Beacons vs. Southern Illinois Salukis
Valparaiso ranks 264th in points per possession on offense due to an inability to shoot, ranking 320th in 2-point shooting percentage and 332nd in 3-point shooting percentage. Both teams have extreme home/road splits, as Southern Illinois ranks 345th in 3-point shooting percentage overall at 27.9% but shoots 36.4% from deep at home compared to just 24.7% on the road. Valparaiso’s defense ranks 123rd in points per possession allowed overall but gives up 20.1 more points per 100 possessions away from home than at home.
Pick: Southern Illinois -8.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Southern Illinois -12.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Portland State Vikings vs. Weber State Wildcats
Weber State does a strong job of preventing second chances, ranking 83rd in home defensive rebound percentage, with opponents rebounding just 22.7% of their missed shots. Portland State continues to waste possessions, ranking 319th in turnovers per possession. Weber State also ranks 61st nationally in home 3-point shooting percentage at 39.6%, while Portland State ranks 257th in points per possession on offense.
Pick: Weber State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Weber State -6.5)
5:00 PM Eastern
Southern Miss Eagles vs. UL Monroe Warhawks
UL Monroe is looking to push tempo, ranking 86th in possessions per game, but ranks just 272nd in points per possession, which drops to 321st at home. They are also 351st in turnovers per possession at home and rank 332nd in offensive rebound percentage. Southern Miss ranks 182nd in points per possession and plays at a mid-tempo pace, ranking 215th in possessions per game.
Pick: Southern Miss vs. UL Monroe Under 156.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total: 147.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Tennessee Tech Eagles vs. Little Rock Trojans
Little Rock has struggled to maximize possessions, ranking 361st in turnovers per possession, and now faces a Tennessee Tech team that wants to push tempo, ranking 95th in possessions per game, while Little Rock ranks 294th. Little Rock also has an interior disadvantage, ranking 329th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage and 322nd overall in points per possession allowed. Tennessee Tech ranks 88th in percentage of field goal attempts that are 2-point shots in road games and 126th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Tennessee Tech +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Tennessee Tech -5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Indiana State Sycamores vs. Northern Iowa Panthers
Northern Iowa controls games by limiting possessions, ranking 356th in possessions per game, while ranking 68th in turnovers per possession forced defensively, which improves to 44th at home. Indiana State ranks 234th in turnovers per possession on offense and 297th in 3-point shooting percentage, while Northern Iowa ranks 30th in turnovers per possession on offense.
Pick: Northern Iowa -10.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Northern Iowa -15)
North Florida Ospreys vs. Austin Peay Governors
North Florida ranks last in the nation in defensive rebound percentage, allowing opponents to rebound 43.5% of their missed shots. Offensively, North Florida takes 51.6% of its shots from 3-point range, the ninth-highest rate in the nation. They face an Austin Peay defense that ranks 91st in opponent 3-point shooting percentage overall at 31.3%, which drops to 20% at home and should regress closer to their overall number.
Pick: Austin Peay -13.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Austin Peay -18.5)
10:00 PM Eastern
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. CS Fullerton Titans
This matchup sets up as a tempo clash, with UC Santa Barbara ranking 306th in possessions per game and CS Fullerton ranking fifth. CS Fullerton has struggled to shoot, ranking 275th in points per possession at home, and while UC Santa Barbara ranks 352nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, CS Fullerton ranks just 301st in home 3-point shooting percentage at 30.8%. Second-chance opportunities should be limited, as UC Santa Barbara ranks fourth nationally in road defensive rebound percentage, while CS Fullerton ranks 10th in home defensive rebound percentage.
Pick: UC Santa Barbara vs. CS Fullerton Under 162.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total: 156.5)
