College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, January 22.
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Noon Eastern
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles vs. Austin Peay Governors
This game was moved up to the afternoon due to upcoming storms, which could make the Austin Peay defense even more effective at home. The Governors already rank 77th in points per possession allowed and 28th in turnovers generated per possession, which should limit possessions for a Florida Gulf Coast team that has increased its tempo this season, ranking 52nd in possessions per game, but averaging four fewer possessions per game away from home than at home.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast vs. Austin Peay Under 157 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 151.5)
6:00 PM Eastern
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMass Lowell Riverhawks
Vermont is playing at one of the slowest tempos in the country, ranking 341st in possessions per game, and is doing a better job of maximizing those possessions, ranking 50th in turnovers per possession. UMass Lowell has struggled on both ends of the floor, ranking 289th in points per possession on offense and 304th in points per possession allowed on defense. Vermont’s weakness of ranking 319th in road opponent 3-point shooting percentage is unlikely to be exposed by a UMass Lowell offense that takes the 26th-highest percentage of its shots from inside the arc.
Picks: Vermont -3.5 and Under 148 (Greg’s Handicap Vermont -7.5 and Total 143.5)
6:30 PM Eastern
UW Green Bay Phoenix vs. Youngstown State Penguins
UW Green Bay plays at a slow pace, ranking 342nd in possessions per game, but those possessions tend to be clean, as the Phoenix rank 361st in turnovers forced per possession on defense. Defensively, Green Bay ranks 332nd in points per possession allowed, while Youngstown State ranks 218th. Green Bay has been solid offensively, ranking 132nd in points per possession.
Pick: UW Green Bay vs. Youngstown State Over 140.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 145.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Wisconsin Badgers vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Wisconsin is playing at a faster tempo than in past seasons, ranking 87th in possessions per game, while Penn State is playing at its slowest pace under Mike Rhoades, ranking 287th. Penn State further reduces scoring chances by generating turnovers, ranking 44th in turnovers per possession at home. Wisconsin’s offense has dropped off away from home, ranking 53rd in points per possession overall, but scoring 17.5 points per 100 possessions fewer on the road than at home.
Pick: Wisconsin vs. Penn State Under 160.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 154.5)
UW Milwaukee Panthers vs. Robert Morris Colonials
UW Milwaukee is severely banged up, with 16.6-point-per-game scorer Seth Hubbard out for the season and the team’s top two rebounders, Danilo Jovanovich and Fazion Fields, having missed extended time. That sets up well for a Robert Morris team that ranks 10th nationally in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 37.4% of its missed shots. Robert Morris’ main weakness—turnovers, ranking 280th per possession—may not be exposed, as UW Milwaukee ranks 340th in turnovers forced per possession on defense away from home.
Pick: Robert Morris -5.5 (Greg’s Handicap Robert Morris -8.5)
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles vs. Georgia State Panthers
While Georgia State ranks just 339th in points per possession on offense this season, the return of top scorer Jelani Hamilton has sparked a turnaround, with the Panthers scoring at least 80 points in four of their last five games. Southern Mississippi has been without Isaac Tavares since December 18, a major blow for a team that ranks 275th in turnovers per possession on offense and 361st in 3-point shooting percentage. Southern Miss also ranks 274th in free throw attempts allowed per field goal attempt, significant against a Georgia State team that ranks eighth nationally in free throw shooting percentage.
Pick: Georgia State +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Georgia State -3.5)
South Florida Bulls vs. UAB Blazers
UAB ranks just 344th in 3-point shooting percentage, but plays to its strengths by attempting only 28.2% of its shots from beyond the arc, the eighth-lowest rate in the nation. UAB also leads the country in fewest turnovers per possession. South Florida relies heavily on second chances, ranking 38th in offensive rebound percentage, but those opportunities should be limited against a UAB defense that ranks 17th in defensive rebound percentage.
Picks: UAB +2.5 and Under 167.5 (Greg’s Handicap UAB -2 and Total 164)
Merrimack Warriors vs. Iona Gaels
Merrimack continues to get crushed on the glass, ranking 364th in rebound percentage, giving Iona a rare edge despite ranking just 284th themselves. Iona’s strength is perimeter defense, ranking 44th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage. Merrimack still plays at a slow tempo, ranking 351st in possessions per game, and generates turnovers, but not at past levels, ranking 64th in turnovers per possession on defense, while ranking just 187th in points per possession allowed.
Picks: Iona +1.5 and Under 145.5 (Greg’s Handicap Iona -7 and Total 137.5)
9:00 PM Eastern
Weber State Wildcats vs. Montana Grizzlies
Montana has struggled to take care of the ball, ranking 320th in turnovers per possession, and now faces a Weber State defense that can neutralize its biggest strength. Montana ranks 34th in 3-point shooting percentage overall, but that drops to 33.8% at home. Weber State leads the nation in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 24.3%, and Montana is unlikely to generate second chances, ranking 357th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Weber State +5.5 (Greg’s Handicap Weber State +1.5)
Portland State Vikings vs. Eastern Washington Eagles
Portland State holds a significant edge on the glass, ranking 85th in rebound percentage, while Eastern Washington ranks 338th in home rebound percentage. Eastern Washington has also struggled defensively, ranking 339th in points per possession allowed, 340th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, and 350th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Portland State -1.5 and Over 148.5 (Greg’s Handicap Portland State -5 and Total 155)
Florida International Golden Panthers vs. UTEP Miners
Both teams rely on generating turnovers, with Florida International ranking 42nd in turnovers forced per possession and UTEP falling to 109th. UTEP has struggled overall on defense, ranking 263rd in points per possession allowed, while the offense has been even worse at home, ranking 330th in points per possession. UTEP is also at a disadvantage on the glass, ranking 315th in rebound percentage.
Pick: Florida International -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Florida International -6)
South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs. St. Thomas Tommies
Both teams play at moderate tempos, with South Dakota State ranking 226th in possessions per game and St. Thomas 149th. Second-chance opportunities should be limited, as St. Thomas ranks 363rd in offensive rebound percentage while also ranking 57th in defensive rebound percentage. South Dakota State has large home/road splits, ranking 11th in points per possession at home compared to 237th away from home.
Pick: South Dakota State vs. St. Thomas Under 155.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 151.5)
Midnight Eastern
CS Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
CS Bakersfield has struggled to score all season, ranking 316th in points per possession, largely due to turnovers, ranking 335th in turnovers per possession away from home. They face a Hawaii defense that ranks second nationally in points per possession allowed. Hawaii should also benefit at the free throw line, ranking 29th in free throw attempts per possession at home, while CS Bakersfield ranks 307th in fouls committed per possession.
Picks: Hawaii -15 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap Hawaii -18.5 and Total 142.5)
