College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, January 8.
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6:30 PM Eastern
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is controlling the glass and not allowing second chances, leading the nation in defensive rebound percentage with only 19.4% of opponents’ missed shots becoming offensive rebounds. The Spartans rank 17th in points per possession allowed and 18th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which impacts a Northwestern offense that ranks 43rd in 2-point shooting percentage but just 270th from 3-point range. Michigan State also prefers to slow games down, ranking 255th in possessions per game, while Northwestern ranks 240th.
Pick: Northwestern vs. Michigan State Under 142.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 138.5)
7:00 PM Eastern
Austin Peay Governors vs. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Austin Peay has been strong defensively, ranking 74th overall in points per possession allowed and jumping to 26th in road games thanks to their ability to generate turnovers, ranking 16th in turnovers forced per possession away from home. They also take care of the ball on offense, ranking 87th in fewest turnovers per possession. Florida Gulf Coast has been efficient offensively, ranking 49th in 3-point shooting percentage at 36.9% while pushing tempo at 55th in possessions per game, but the Eagles have struggled defensively, ranking 287th in points per possession allowed.
Pick: Austin Peay +3.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Austin Peay -2.5)
New Haven Chargers vs. Le Moyne Dolphins
Le Moyne has struggled to guard the perimeter, ranking 363rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 40.1%. New Haven, however, has had major issues scoring in its first Division I season, ranking 355th in points per possession and 355th in 3-point shooting percentage at 27.2%. New Haven games also feature the fewest possessions of any Division I team. Defensively, New Haven has been shaky on the perimeter as well, ranking 313th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, while Le Moyne shoots 36.7% from deep overall, jumping to 44.7% at home.
Picks: Le Moyne -5 and Over 137 (Greg’s Handicap: Le Moyne -11.5, Total 141.5)
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Coastal Carolina Chanticleers
Coastal Carolina limits clean looks both inside and out, ranking 132nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage and 19th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage. Second chances are also hard to come by, as the Chanticleers rank 64th in defensive rebound percentage. Old Dominion ranks 254th in points per possession overall, dropping to 271st away from home, and also struggles to generate extra possessions, ranking 323rd in offensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Coastal Carolina -3.5 and Under 149 (Greg’s Handicap: Coastal Carolina -8, Total 144)
Hampton Pirates vs. Campbell Fighting Camels
Turnovers have plagued Campbell, as the team ranks 302nd in turnovers per possession and 341st in 3-point shooting percentage at 28.2%. Campbell tries to compensate with offensive rebounding, ranking 86th in offensive rebound percentage. Hampton has also been strong on the offensive glass in road and neutral court games, rebounding 31.2% of missed shots, which ranks 81st nationally. Defensively, Hampton is far sturdier, ranking 118th in points per possession allowed, while Campbell ranks 315th.
Pick: Hampton +8.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Hampton +4.5)
Delaware Blue Hens vs. Sam Houston State Bearkats
Both teams shoot the 3 well, with Sam Houston State ranking 74th nationally at 36.2% and Delaware 43rd at 37.1%, which rises to 39.3% away from home. Delaware is severely outmatched on the glass, ranking 358th in offensive rebound percentage, while Sam Houston State ranks 43rd with 35% of their missed shots turning into offensive rebounds. Sam Houston’s biggest weakness is turnovers at home, ranking 354th in turnovers per possession, but that is mitigated by Delaware ranking 250th in turnovers forced per possession on defense.
Pick: Delaware vs. Sam Houston Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Total 152.5)
Elon Phoenix vs. North Carolina A&T Aggies
North Carolina A&T continues to be impacted by the injury to second-leading scorer Lueron Walker, who averages 16.6 points per game. That puts them at a disadvantage against an Elon team ranking 43rd in points per possession and 25th in offensive rebound rate. North Carolina A&T ranks 323rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage, while Elon attempts 44.5% of its shots from beyond the arc.
Picks: Elon -6.5 and Over 160.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Elon -10.5, Total 164.5)
7:30 PM Eastern
UT Martin Skyhawks vs. Morehead State Eagles
UT Martin has struggled with ball security, ranking 351st in turnovers per possession, but faces a Morehead State team that has been even worse at home, committing the third-most turnovers per possession of any team in the country. Morehead State also ranks just 299th in 2-point shooting percentage, while UT Martin ranks 40th in road 2-point shooting percentage and 46th in opponent 3-point shooting percentage on defense.
Pick: UT Martin -2 (Greg’s Handicap: UT Martin -6.5)
8:00 PM Eastern
Texas State Bobcats vs. Southern Miss Eagles
Both teams play at a moderate tempo, with Texas State ranking 217th and Southern Miss 195th in possessions per game. Texas State emphasizes defense and avoids 3-point shots, leading the nation in the percentage of field goal attempts taken inside the arc. Their games are often turnover-heavy, as Texas State ranks 334th in turnovers per possession on offense but 74th in turnovers forced per possession on defense. Southern Miss ranks 248th in turnovers per possession and 344th in 3-point shooting percentage at 28.4%.
Picks: Southern Miss -4.5 and Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Southern Miss -8, Total 138)
9:00 PM Eastern
Montana State Bobcats vs. Eastern Washington Eagles
Eastern Washington has been decimated defensively, ranking 348th in points per possession allowed. The Eagles attempt to offset that with shooting, hitting 37.2% from 3-point range at home, but ball security is an issue, ranking 280th in turnovers per possession. Montana State ranks 67th in turnovers per possession and has defended the perimeter well away from home, allowing opponents to shoot just 29.7% from 3-point range, which ranks 36th nationally.
Pick: Montana State -2 (Greg’s Handicap: Montana State -8)
9:30 PM Eastern
Pepperdine Waves vs. San Diego Toreros
Pepperdine has struggled mightily on offense, ranking 317th in 3-point shooting percentage, 298th in turnovers per possession, and 320th in points per possession overall. While San Diego has had issues on the glass, ranking 355th in rebound percentage, Pepperdine has not capitalized, rebounding just 24.9% of its missed shots, which ranks 286th. San Diego also excels at forcing turnovers, ranking 30th in turnovers forced per possession.
Pick: San Diego -3.5 (Greg’s Handicap: San Diego -7.5)
10:30 PM Eastern
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Oregon Ducks
Oregon has been underwhelming this season, ranking 109th in points per possession on offense and 141st in points per possession allowed, with its biggest strength being offensive rebounding, ranking 21st with 36.8% of missed shots recovered. Ohio State has been excellent defensively on the perimeter, ranking 33rd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage at 29.7%, and strong inside offensively, ranking seventh in 2-point shooting percentage.
Pick: Ohio State +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Ohio State -3.5)
11:00 PM Eastern
San Francisco Dons vs. Loyola Marymount Lions
Loyola Marymount should see plenty of clean offensive possessions, as San Francisco ranks 348th in turnovers forced per possession away from home. Loyola Marymount has been strong defensively, ranking 63rd in points per possession allowed and 36th in opponent 2-point shooting percentage, which is magnified by San Francisco shooting just 31.3% from 3-point range in road and neutral court games.
Pick: Loyola Marymount -1.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Loyola Marymount -5.5)
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Gonzaga’s defense has been elite, ranking eighth in points per possession allowed and leading the nation in fewest points per possession surrendered at home. Santa Clara is playing at a slower pace than in past seasons, ranking 174th in possessions per game, and ranks 49th in points per possession overall, relying heavily on interior scoring with a 40th-ranked 2-point shooting percentage. That will be difficult against a Gonzaga defense ranking sixth in opponent 2-point shooting percentage at home while also ranking eighth in defensive rebound percentage.
Picks: Gonzaga -14.5 and Under 167.5 (Greg’s Handicap: Gonzaga -18.5, Total 162.5)
