College Basketball Picks Today:
Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, March 12.
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Note: More matchups and lines will come tonight and Greg may have additional plays.
11:00 AM Eastern
Massachusetts Minutemen vs. Miami OH Redhawks
Miami OH has been one of the most efficient offenses in games played away from home this season, ranking 10th in points per possession in road or neutral-court games while shooting 38% from three away from home, which ranks 15th in the nation. Massachusetts has defended the perimeter well away from home, ranking 35th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 31.4%, and holds an edge on the glass. Miami OH rebounds just 23% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds (331st nationally), while Massachusetts ranks 106th in offensive rebound percentage.
Pick: Massachusetts +7.5 (Greg’s Handicap Massachusetts +5)
12:00 PM Eastern
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
Iowa plays at one of the slowest paces in the nation, ranking 364th out of 365 Division I teams in possessions per game. They also limit scoring opportunities by generating turnovers, ranking 12th in turnovers per possession on defense. Ohio State has defended the perimeter well, ranking 29th in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 30.9%. Neither team generates many second chances, with Ohio State ranking 193rd in offensive rebound percentage and Iowa 174th.
Pick: Ohio State vs. Iowa Under 139.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 135.5)
12:30 PM Eastern
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
While Texas Tech has been impacted inside with the loss of forward JT Toppin, their three-point shooting remains among the best in the nation. The team shoots 39.6% from three both overall and away from home, ranking sixth nationally. Iowa State has been strong defensively, ranking eighth in points per possession allowed, but they rank 90th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 32.5%, while Texas Tech ranks 42nd at 31.2%.
Pick: Texas Tech +5.5 (Greg’s Handicap Texas Tech +2.5)
1:00 PM Eastern
Toledo Rockets vs. Bowling Green Falcons
Bowling Green has the defensive edge, ranking 18th in points per possession allowed in games played away from home, while Toledo ranks 277th overall in points per possession allowed. Bowling Green limits second chances well, allowing opponents to rebound just 24.7% of their misses as offensive rebounds (37th nationally), while Toledo ranks 336th with 33% of opponent misses becoming offensive rebounds. Bowling Green also ranks 41st in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 31.5%, while Toledo ranks 38th in three-point shooting at 36.6%.
Pick: Bowling Green Moneyline (Greg’s Handicap Bowling Green -3)
2:30 PM Eastern
Washington Huskies vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Both teams play at a moderate pace, with Wisconsin ranking 127th in total possessions per game and Washington 209th entering Wednesday. Washington ranks 314th in three-point shooting percentage at 31.2%. Both teams limit second chances effectively, with Washington ranking 66th in defensive rebound percentage and Wisconsin 67th. Wisconsin also ranks sixth nationally in percentage of field goal attempts from three-point range at 51.8%, while Washington ranks 140th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 33.3%.
Pick: Washington vs. Wisconsin Under 158 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 152)
Louisville Cardinals vs. Miami Hurricanes
Louisville attempts 53.2% of their field goals from three-point range, the fourth-highest percentage in the nation. Miami struggles to defend the perimeter, ranking 280th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 35.5%. Miami has been efficient offensively, ranking 36th in points per possession, but they are at a disadvantage in close games as they shoot just 68.1% from the free throw line (323rd nationally), while Louisville ranks 33rd in free throw shooting percentage at 77.1%. Louisville can also compete on the glass, as Miami ranks ninth in rebound percentage while Louisville ranks 23rd.
Picks: Louisville -1.5 and Over 153.5 (Greg’s Handicap Louisville -3.5 and Total 157.5)
3:00 PM Eastern
Utah State Aggies vs. UNLV Runnin’ Rebels
Utah State has been one of the stronger defensive teams away from home this season, ranking 59th in points per possession allowed on the road and fourth in turnovers generated per possession away from home. UNLV, playing in their regular home gym, entered Wednesday shooting just 32.8% from three-point range and could struggle inside against a Utah State offense that ranks 10th nationally in two-point shooting percentage.
Picks: Utah State -6.5 and Under 160.5 (Greg’s Handicap Utah State -8.5 and Total 152.5)
Central Florida Knights vs. Arizona Wildcats
Arizona has been one of the most balanced teams in the nation, ranking 17th in points per possession on offense and fourth in points per possession allowed on defense. Central Florida entered Wednesday ranked 55th in points per possession on offense and 24th in three-point shooting percentage at 37.8%.
Picks: Central Florida +12.5 and Under 161.5 (Greg’s Handicap Central Florida +16.5 and Total 154.5)
4:00 PM Eastern
Buffalo Bulls vs. Akron Zips
Akron is one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation, ranking third in points per possession and ninth in three-point shooting percentage at 39.2%, while playing at a fast pace (64th in possessions per game). Buffalo has struggled defensively, ranking 300th in points per possession allowed, but they do have an efficient road offense, ranking 24th in points per possession in games played away from home. Buffalo lost 99–85 to Akron on the road in February.
Pick: Buffalo vs. Akron Over 159.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 163)
6:30 PM Eastern
Ohio Bobcats vs. Kent State Golden Flashes
Kent State is one of the fastest teams in the nation, ranking 13th in total possessions per game, while Ohio also prefers to play quickly, ranking 77th. Ohio has struggled around the perimeter on both ends, ranking 338th in three-point shooting percentage at 30.3% and 339th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.8%. They are also 279th in points per possession allowed. Kent State excels at creating second chances, grabbing 34.2% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds in road games (21st nationally), while ranking 213th in points per possession allowed on defense.
Pick: Ohio vs. Kent State Over 159.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 162.5)
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
Louisiana Tech prefers a slow, physical game, ranking 315th in possessions per game. They have struggled from three away from home, ranking 363rd in three-point shooting percentage at 25.8%. However, they have a strong edge on the offensive glass, rebounding 35% of their misses (19th nationally), while Middle Tennessee ranks 206th in offensive rebound percentage. Louisiana Tech also ranks 32nd in points per possession allowed away from home, while Middle Tennessee ranks 198th overall.
Pick: Louisiana Tech +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Louisiana Tech -1.5)
8:30 PM Eastern
Maryland Eastern Shore Hawks vs. NC Central Eagles
Maryland Eastern Shore games feature a high number of turnovers. The team turns the ball over on 23.9% of offensive possessions in games played away from home, the highest rate in the nation. Defensively, they rank 109th in turnovers generated per possession, though that drops to 187th away from home. NC Central ranks 34th nationally in turnovers forced on defense and 55th in three-point shooting percentage away from home at 36.1%.
Pick: NC Central -1 (Greg’s Handicap NC Central -5)
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers vs. Kennesaw State Owls
Both teams push a very fast tempo, with Kennesaw State ranking 17th in possessions per game and Western Kentucky 47th. Defensively, both teams are average, with Kennesaw State ranking 160th in points per possession allowed and Western Kentucky 117th. Western Kentucky has struggled inside, ranking 348th in two-point shooting percentage, but shoots well from the free throw line (68th at 75.5%). Kennesaw State allows the fourth-most free throw attempts per possession nationally and creates second chances, rebounding 34% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds in road games (24th nationally).
Picks: Kennesaw State +1.5 and Over 157.5 (Greg’s Handicap Kennesaw State -1.5 and Total 161.5)
Additions after initial post went live:
Note: More matchups and lines will come tonight and Greg may have additional plays.
